Weekend Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 29 July 2012 12:29 PM #106

    Prazan - 29 July 2012 03:06 PM

    I had a similar experience last week, the logic board failing, Apple refurbishing the 2008 MacBook Pro for $310. It’s a great service. Oh, one difference in our experiences. I also walked out of the store with a new MacBook Pro Retina Display. I think it’s by far the best laptop and computer Apple has ever made, for its time. I didn’t say that about my 2008 MacBook Pro.

    Huge congrats on both accounts. Quick question….............  Is the anti reflective (AR) coating a big improvement?

    These 2012 AIR/MBP’s are indeed a REAL step up in quality/power over previous macs. I have a topish end 15” MBP from 08-09 and it pales in comparison to my 2 GHz. 2012 11” AIR in pure processing speed.

      cheers
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 01:11 PM #107

    Mercel - 29 July 2012 03:18 PM

    A local paper, The Seattle Times, ran a story about Amazon and how its profits have shrunk YOY for the past six quarters.  At the bottom on the story was a poll, asking the question:  Is Amazon’s strategy smart?

    Yes for “Invest in the business or No, it’s overvalued and shareholders are victimized (huh?)

    84% said yes.  16% said no. 

    I imagine the time to short Amazon is when it begins to report profit growth.  rolleyes

    How many times did you vote?

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 01:19 PM #108

    lovemyipad - 29 July 2012 02:57 PM
    Big Al - 29 July 2012 11:39 AM

    (...)I would love to get the opportunity to buy some more at 550. However, I am not so sure whether we will see this price again. What PE ratio would we get with a price of 550 or even 525?

    ttm = 42.55

    525.00   =  12.34
    530.00   =  12.46
    540.00   =  12.69
    550.00   =  12.93
    560.00   =  13.16
    565.00   =  13.28
    570.00   =  13.40
    575.00   =  13.51
    580.00   =  13.63
    585.00   =  13.75
    590.00   =  13.87
    595.00   =  13.98
    600.00   =  14.10

    I think the dividend will provide some buffering at the lower P/E levels going forward.  As the effective yield increased, buyers would find the stock more compelling.  Personally, I think 550 would be a solid floor through mid-August, after which I believe we will have ample evidence of IOs 6 GM being close to issuance. This should provide some excitement about an early to mid September launch of the next iPhone.

    I put the swing trade proceeds back to work at 572 but if we see the 550’s in the next couple of weeks ( doubtful), I would rob Mercel in an alleyway to get more capital to buy shares.

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 01:25 PM #109

    madmaxroi - 29 July 2012 02:49 PM

    12.9 and 12.3, respectively.  I believe we have hit a 12.6 to 12.7 PE for each of the last two quarters.

    @ EPS(ttm) = 42.55
    PE 12.5 = 531.88
    PE 12.6 = 536.13
    PE 12.7 = 540.39

    My current game plan, subject to market changes…

    In the absence of the SPY going parabolic, I expect we will revisit such destinations again this quarter.  My problem is always that I want to buy everything in sight because prices are “so great” and AAPL’s a bargain!  Then, when the best WTF sale comes along, I have too much capital tied up in underwater positions. 

    I used to be better at being a bull on the put side, but last quarter, I bailed too early too many times—something I’m more prone to do with unhedged options versus spreads.  I’m more patient with spreads since they don’t wildly fluctuate; I’m chickensh*t with unhedged options because they do.

    So, I’m back to spreads, with unhedged options ONLY for quick day trades.  In a downtrend, for me, that means puts, not calls—bull put spreads or bear put spreads or unhedged puts for quick day trades.  Read: puts and more puts.

    On Friday, I started a position in SEP’12 560/570 bear put spreads (long 570, short 560).  If we take out 588 and attempt to fill the pre-earnings gap @ 598.51, I’ll continue scaling into those, adding more every 5-10 points.  I plan to scale OUT and take profits on the way down, flipping bears into bulls.  Hopefully, this little exercise will keep me busy and out of trouble—and psychologically turning lemons into lemonade—so when the best quarterly WTF sale comes along, as it always does, I’m not overcommitted to underwater positions and can breathe easier from a risk management perspective when backing up the truck.

    That’s my current thinking…

    [ Edited: 29 July 2012 01:29 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 01:51 PM #110

    madmaxroi - 29 July 2012 02:49 PM
    Big Al - 29 July 2012 11:39 AM

    What PE ratio would we get with a price of 550 or even 525?

    12.9 and 12.3, respectively.  I believe we have hit a 12.6 to 12.7 PE for each of the last two quarters.

    12.6 to 12.7

    Thank you for the information.

    [ Edited: 29 July 2012 03:17 PM by lovemyipad ]

    Signature

    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Posted: 29 July 2012 02:45 PM #111

    Interesting perspective on how Amazon is slowly disrupting retail the way Apple rearranged all the players in the cell phone industry (not that I’m buying any of it).


    Why Amazon May Be Worth 179 Times Earnings

    http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/blogarticle/3066485/Why-Amazon-May-Be-Worth-179-Times-Earnings.html?ArticleID=3066485&single=true

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 02:57 PM #112

    Gtrplyr - 27 July 2012 10:51 PM

    Ironic read as I’m about to go pick up our dog from the eye specialist ... been a rough couple of weeks for her and she’s been to the vet now 3 times ... around 4K including this mornings surgery, which went well.  Expensive but she’s been a part of our family for 15 years and I didn’t hesitate one bit when told of the cost .... just glad we are able to spend that amount on her I can’t imagine if we were living paycheck to paycheck ... 

    Good luck to all the longs ... been a rough week for many.

    Hope your doggie is doing better.

    [ Edited: 29 July 2012 03:24 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 03:08 PM #113

    rickag - 28 July 2012 01:54 AM

    Sorry to hear about your dog.  Very stressful.  About a year ago one of our maltese fell between chair and ottoman and damaged his back.  Vet offered surgery with no guarantees he would regain the use of his back legs.  After surgery he eventually regained the use of his back legs but they are still weak.  We are now the proud owners of the most expensive maltese in the state of Texas, yes, vet bills can be expensive.

    Hope every thing works out well, good luck.

    Thank you.  I’m sitting here on my front porch, with both of my doggies next to me just watching people going by.  What’s that they say about simple things being the best.

    Sammy has a mild fever (103.6), but his immune system is back so he can fight it.  It’s agonizing to see your dog in distress like he was this week,  Fortunately, we have a good vet, who asked me to bring Sammy down to the office this morning to take his temp, and again tomorrow, so they can monitor it until he’s fit again.

    Good luck with your Maltese.

    [ Edited: 29 July 2012 03:29 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 29 July 2012 03:09 PM #114

    Red Shirted Ensign - 29 July 2012 04:19 PM

    Personally, I think 550 would be a solid floor through mid-August…

    The thing about 550 is, while I’m not convinced we won’t dip under it because macro + summer, it’s low enough that I think it’s a solid entry point regardless of what the exact bottom turns out to be.

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 03:18 PM #115

    Jcaron - 28 July 2012 02:23 PM
    macorange - 28 July 2012 02:05 PM

    I laughed out loud at two of the ads, but maybe I have a warped sense of humor.

    More important than the humor quotient, the ads effectively start making the practical case for owning Apple products, instead of just the gee-wiz case.  They depict what people actually use computers for away from work, and they show how the combination of a good device, good software, and superior support all combine to get the job done. 

    Apple competitors can ape the gee-wiz factor, but they can’t come close to making the practical case offered by the Apple ecosystem.

    Somewhat unrelated but I had a chance to use the genius bar for the very first time this past Thursday.  I had a meeting in Portland Maine which is 120 miles from my home.  It is also the nearest Apple store to me.  4 weeks ago I lost the screen on my MBPS, so I thought this was a good opportunity to have it looked at.  I had no appointment, thet old me it would be2 hours before the next appointment.  I told them how far I had come and my meeting was in 1 hour.  They said they would try to sqeeezeme I within 20 minutes if I wanted to wait.  I said I would wait.  In less than 5 minutes a genius came and got me.  Rana few tests and determined my logic board failed, this is a $700 part.  She then stated, if I wanted to, Apple has a flat fee repair where they will go throught the machine and replace any and all bad components for $310.  I jumped on that deal as I was redy to drop $2k on a new machine.  Awesome customer service!

    BTW, I bought this particular MBP in 2007 according to apple records.  Now, who says the “premium” that we pay for Apple products is not worth it?  I wonder what Dell would have told me?

    Another thing they have is One To One, which I bought for $99 when I purchased my new MBP last August.  It gives you unlimited hour or half-hour sessions with a genius, and you either work with him in the Apple Store, or in my case, out in the mall (Freehold Raceway Mall, Freehold, NJ) on one of the Starbucks tables. 

    I was able to update all of my software for IPhone and IPad, and link to the cloud; I will also load the new Lion software, and get my MBP in the cloud as well, once I schedule an appointment for this week.  You also have access to a number of sessions - usually with 3 or 4 other people - to learn about IPhoto and other applications, with hands-on exposure.  Well worth the money.

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 03:23 PM #116

    bolivar - 28 July 2012 05:43 PM

    God will bles all who care and nurture their animals. It cost me well into five figures to extend our Dudley’s life for another year when he came down with pneumonia at the age of 14. It was the best money I ever spent, and since he heft us there is a hole in my heart that no amout of money can repair.
    We measure our humanity by how we treat our animals.

    I know exactly how you feel, as I’ve lost my share of dogs as well. 

    I hope you have since purchased another pet.  As painful as the exit is, there is a lifetime of joy during their life, which no money can buy either.

    [ Edited: 29 July 2012 03:26 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 03:38 PM #117

    Phoebear611 - 28 July 2012 10:31 PM

    On a much happier note…Lochte over Phelps and others for the first gold.  I dare any female on the board to tell me he isn’t eye candy!

    I actually remarked to my wife that he was a good looking guy, when they showed a slew of commercials with Lochte in them after the coverage of the 400IM last night.

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 03:42 PM #118

    johnG - 29 July 2012 03:29 PM
    Prazan - 29 July 2012 03:06 PM

    I had a similar experience last week, the logic board failing, Apple refurbishing the 2008 MacBook Pro for $310. It’s a great service. Oh, one difference in our experiences. I also walked out of the store with a new MacBook Pro Retina Display. I think it’s by far the best laptop and computer Apple has ever made, for its time. I didn’t say that about my 2008 MacBook Pro.

    Huge congrats on both accounts. Quick question….............  Is the anti reflective (AR) coating a big improvement?

    These 2012 AIR/MBP’s are indeed a REAL step up in quality/power over previous macs. I have a topish end 15” MBP from 08-09 and it pales in comparison to my 2 GHz. 2012 11” AIR in pure processing speed.

      cheers
        JohnG

    I’ve avoided the glossy displays in the past, never having bought a single one. I’m a good looking guy, sure, but why do I want to see my reflection when I look at my computer? That’s what the bathroom mirror is for. The display in the MBP RD remains glossy without being excessively reflective. The definition of “excessively” is subjective. But I haven’t seen my reflection once.

         
  • Posted: 29 July 2012 03:46 PM #119

    lovemyipad - 29 July 2012 04:25 PM
    madmaxroi - 29 July 2012 02:49 PM

    12.9 and 12.3, respectively.  I believe we have hit a 12.6 to 12.7 PE for each of the last two quarters.

    @ EPS(ttm) = 42.55
    PE 12.5 = 531.88
    PE 12.6 = 536.13
    PE 12.7 = 540.39

    My current game plan, subject to market changes…

    In the absence of the SPY going parabolic, I expect we will revisit such destinations again this quarter.  My problem is always that I want to buy everything in sight because prices are “so great” and AAPL’s a bargain!  Then, when the best WTF sale comes along, I have too much capital tied up in underwater positions. 

    I used to be better at being a bull on the put side, but last quarter, I bailed too early too many times—something I’m more prone to do with unhedged options versus spreads.  I’m more patient with spreads since they don’t wildly fluctuate; I’m chickensh*t with unhedged options because they do.

    So, I’m back to spreads, with unhedged options ONLY for quick day trades.  In a downtrend, for me, that means puts, not calls—bull put spreads or bear put spreads or unhedged puts for quick day trades.  Read: puts and more puts.

    On Friday, I started a position in SEP’12 560/570 bear put spreads (long 570, short 560).  If we take out 588 and attempt to fill the pre-earnings gap @ 598.51, I’ll continue scaling into those, adding more every 5-10 points.  I plan to scale OUT and take profits on the way down, flipping bears into bulls.  Hopefully, this little exercise will keep me busy and out of trouble—and psychologically turning lemons into lemonade—so when the best quarterly WTF sale comes along, as it always does, I’m not overcommitted to underwater positions and can breathe easier from a risk management perspective when backing up the truck.

    That’s my current thinking…

    +1

         
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    Posted: 29 July 2012 03:54 PM #120

    rickag - 29 July 2012 04:51 PM
    madmaxroi - 29 July 2012 02:49 PM
    Big Al - 29 July 2012 11:39 AM

    What PE ratio would we get with a price of 550 or even 525?

    12.9 and 12.3, respectively.  I believe we have hit a 12.6 to 12.7 PE for each of the last two quarters.

    12.6 to 12.7

    Thank you for the information.

    According to my records, our low of the quarter was 522 on May 18. With a 41.01 TTM, that yields a P/E of 12.73.