Weekend Updates - Archive

  • Posted: 27 July 2012 06:36 PM #16

    I’m skipping next week trades, and may skip the following week as well.  With all the meetings and reports due out next week, we may set a lower support line.  I’m not going to test whether that happens, or not, I’m assuming it will.

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    Posted: 27 July 2012 06:52 PM #17

    I have to play some defense in this environment.

    AAPL has not had anywhere near “enough” time to consolidate or settle into some kind of range.  I’ll keep watch and give it time.

    Same with those AMZN BPSes I didn’t buy.  Sure it was Jan 13 but it’s impossible to see a trend in a TILT chart or these wild earnings reckonings.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 06:55 PM #18

    Not much talk about apple buying AuthenTec Inc. (AUTH) for about $350 million.

    Pros cons of this aquisition?

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 07:11 PM #19

    Rosie - 27 July 2012 08:39 PM
    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:18 PM
    gyromac - 27 July 2012 08:03 PM

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

    The last one, “glad the week is over”.

    This was a week for minimizing the damage done on Tuesday.  If today is the beginning of an upward move, then fantastic.  I don’t trust it, so I have a handful of short calls (total of 5) balancing my two handfuls (total of12) of long calls which are underwater.

    I have another reason for being glad the week is over.  I had to leave my dog at the vet on Monday, since he checked in with a 106F fever and low white blood cell count.  Looked pretty uncertain (and nervous) early on, but by Wednesday Sammy’s fever had dropped to 100-101, and yesterday his WBC count had tripled but still a little below where they could release him.  Vet took another blood sample today, so we’re hopeful continued improvement in the WBC count will allow us to take him home tomorrow.  So compared to this, AAPL has not been my main concern this week.

    However, AAPL did have a role in my dog’s situation, since trading that big drop on Monday, and buying back the short end of a spread on Wednesday, was able to finance his stay at the vet, which is running about $3K.  As I told my wife, who was nervous about the bill because she knew how expensive these bills can run, God provides.


    sending good thoughts to Sammy…I have a separate cc I keep for those “little”  3k vet/pet emergencies.  It’s worth every penny.

    Thanks, Rosie.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 07:17 PM #20

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 08:48 PM

    RG, I’m so sorry about Sammy and hope he’s on the mend ASAP.  Check out pet insurance: http://www.gopetplan.com/

    Fenway’s legs were $4K each…80% covered.

    Thanks, Ms. iPad.  We used to have the insurance, but my wife decided it wasn’t worth it, since we only had routine shots, and our dogs are relatively young (Sammy is 5, and Sophie is 3, both Shih Tzus).  I know, I know, that’s why they call it insurance.

    Hope Fenway is doing well.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 07:34 PM #21

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 09:07 PM
    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:24 PM

    iPad - any thoughts here?  I still think it is nothing more than an oversold bounce.  Next week there are some pretty huge meetings (both the ECB and the FED) .... jobs numbers on Friday….end of month also next week.  The commentary from Europe continues to be commentary with no action…I still think AAPL goes lower before we go up ... but to be honest ... nothing makes sense…the world is not a logical place anymore.  Do you disagree? Well you shouldn’t…just look at AMZN’s P/E and price.  It blows me away.  What are your thoughts?  Charts say anything to you?

    I am assuming it’s an oversold bounce until proven otherwise.  We’re sitting at the 38% retracement of the move from 609 to 570—that’s sufficient retrace for continuation (down).  So we shall see.

    The slope of the weekly MACD-h went negative again, indicating the consolidation period isn’t over.  Often (but not always), a sell-off of this magnitude isn’t over this quickly, nor is it only one leg.  There’s usually an oversold bounce, followed by another leg down.  My targets: 565—> 550—> 535

    Last year, we spent most of the year consolidating.  That 200+ point sprint didn’t change the way this stock trades.  The bulk of the time we are range-bound, then we get short, violent bursts to the upside, forging new ground.

    How many times did we test that 350 area last year?  First half of the year, it was resistance, then it converted to support.  I thought that level would be 580 this year.  Now I think it’s 550. 

    Now, if the SPY goes parabolic (on anticipation or reality of QE), we may (or may not) go along for the ride.

    i think the reason we spend most of last year consolidating was b/c in theory the world is sitting there waiting for the “new” product to be released and see how “WOWish” it is…

    last year if you remember right after the 4S came out the stock tanked as the world was disappointed…the whole roll out was just subdued…only in calendar Q1 2012 did the stock take off after WS realized how many of these units AAPL really sold…

    well here we sit again in August (yeah i know we are a couple days short) and the world is again holding its breath….sorry but how “WOWish” is the 5 going to be????  really we practically know what it looks like and what it does….ok is it that much different than the 4S???...

    bottom line….we need a new product for 2012 ....at WWDC 2012 TC stood in front of a screen that said something like just wait for what we have in store….

    well lets go through a product check….

    new macbooks….ok check got them….nice that they have retina….but not earth shattering

    new iMacs….not yet….not really much to change here anyway…not earth shattering

    new ipads….already out….selling well… no new earth shattering news here going forward…just sell more of them

    mini ipad….really???? is this our idea or just are we being forced into this market by the likes of GOOG and AMZN???  great we blast 1-2 billion in revenue through at a 20% GPM as opposed to 40+ on everything else….we aren’t going to make it cheap and go backwards…so don’t tell me we can make a huge margin on this (even with our supply chain)

    iphone 5… China Mobile (CHL) compatibility is the only reason i am excited for this phone…but after that we better start getting innovative again….we have 90% of the world’s carriers covered now….all the other new features of the phone are pretty boring personally….

    iTV….who knows….big random guess at this point….but doubt we have in time for xmas or SuperBowl 2013….so don’t plan on anything big….

    maybe there is a secret product in development….maybe passbook turns AAPL into a payment processor…..

    bottom line i miss Steve Jobs….AAPL is starting to show they miss him too….

    i rather being dealing with health rumors now rather than what is the next $50 billion product question at this point…..

    jmho

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 07:51 PM #22

    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 10:11 PM
    Rosie - 27 July 2012 08:39 PM
    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:18 PM
    gyromac - 27 July 2012 08:03 PM

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

    The last one, “glad the week is over”.

    This was a week for minimizing the damage done on Tuesday.  If today is the beginning of an upward move, then fantastic.  I don’t trust it, so I have a handful of short calls (total of 5) balancing my two handfuls (total of12) of long calls which are underwater.

    I have another reason for being glad the week is over.  I had to leave my dog at the vet on Monday, since he checked in with a 106F fever and low white blood cell count.  Looked pretty uncertain (and nervous) early on, but by Wednesday Sammy’s fever had dropped to 100-101, and yesterday his WBC count had tripled but still a little below where they could release him.  Vet took another blood sample today, so we’re hopeful continued improvement in the WBC count will allow us to take him home tomorrow.  So compared to this, AAPL has not been my main concern this week.

    However, AAPL did have a role in my dog’s situation, since trading that big drop on Monday, and buying back the short end of a spread on Wednesday, was able to finance his stay at the vet, which is running about $3K.  As I told my wife, who was nervous about the bill because she knew how expensive these bills can run, God provides.


    sending good thoughts to Sammy…I have a separate cc I keep for those “little”  3k vet/pet emergencies.  It’s worth every penny.

    Thanks, Rosie.


    Ironic read as I’m about to go pick up our dog from the eye specialist ... been a rough couple of weeks for her and she’s been to the vet now 3 times ... around 4K including this mornings surgery, which went well.  Expensive but she’s been a part of our family for 15 years and I didn’t hesitate one bit when told of the cost .... just glad we are able to spend that amount on her I can’t imagine if we were living paycheck to paycheck ... 

    Good luck to all the longs ... been a rough week for many.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 08:21 PM #23

    This is a very big deal. Apple is apparently working with major Hearing Aid companies.
    Accessibility.
    http://www.apple.com/ios/ios6/
    And Apple is working with top manufacturers to introduce Made for iPhone hearing aids that will deliver a power-efficient, high-quality digital audio?experience.5

    5.Made for iPhone hearing aids require iPhone 4S.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 08:30 PM #24

    Time for another patent bidding war?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/27/apple-and-google-lead-separate-groups-in-bidding-for-kodak-patents/

    It would seem that Apple, as before, has a bit of a cash advantage.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 08:50 PM #25

    Mav - 27 July 2012 11:30 PM

    Time for another patent bidding war?

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/07/27/apple-and-google-lead-separate-groups-in-bidding-for-kodak-patents/

    It would seem that Apple, as before, has a bit of a cash advantage.

    mav…

    we pretty much beat EK’s main “crown jewel” patent….

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/23/business/kodak-loses-patent-lawsuit-against-apple-and-rim.html

    so i think we are in the room b/c GOOG is in the room….yes i know this would be a nice addition to our patent pile, but GOOG needs them more and EK needs us both to get a bidding war going….

    Nortel was a one-off thing….it will never get that crazy again….

    just ask IDCC shareholders how they made out after both AAPL and GOOG passed on their 4G patents

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 09:02 PM #26

    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:18 PM

    God provides.

    Indeed, He does.

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 10:54 PM #27

    rutgersguy92 - 27 July 2012 08:18 PM
    gyromac - 27 July 2012 08:03 PM

    don’t know if we should be happy….sad….or just glad the week is over….

    WHAT A WEEK….

    The last one, “glad the week is over”.

    This was a week for minimizing the damage done on Tuesday.  If today is the beginning of an upward move, then fantastic.  I don’t trust it, so I have a handful of short calls (total of 5) balancing my two handfuls (total of12) of long calls which are underwater.

    I have another reason for being glad the week is over.  I had to leave my dog at the vet on Monday, since he checked in with a 106F fever and low white blood cell count.  Looked pretty uncertain (and nervous) early on, but by Wednesday Sammy’s fever had dropped to 100-101, and yesterday his WBC count had tripled but still a little below where they could release him.  Vet took another blood sample today, so we’re hopeful continued improvement in the WBC count will allow us to take him home tomorrow.  So compared to this, AAPL has not been my main concern this week.

    However, AAPL did have a role in my dog’s situation, since trading that big drop on Monday, and buying back the short end of a spread on Wednesday, was able to finance his stay at the vet, which is running about $3K.  As I told my wife, who was nervous about the bill because she knew how expensive these bills can run, God provides.

    Sorry to hear about your dog.  Very stressful.  About a year ago one of our maltese fell between chair and ottoman and damaged his back.  Vet offered surgery with no guarantees he would regain the use of his back legs.  After surgery he eventually regained the use of his back legs but they are still weak.  We are now the proud owners of the most expensive maltese in the state of Texas, yes, vet bills can be expensive.

    Hope every thing works out well, good luck.

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 11:11 PM #28

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 08:43 PM
    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:17 PM

    (...)
    I worry about getting caught up in my hopes or in some insane euphoria again and not trading my account appropriately and RATIONALLY. I lightened up a bit…maybe I should have lightened up a little bit more.  I don’t even know anymore…nothing is making sense….I need a drink.  iPad, please start the Weekend thread!

    I sold half of everything.  If we never see this price again, the other half can enjoy the profits.  If we go lower, I can buy everything back cheaper.

      The only move I made so far was to roll my last purchased BCS, Jan 13 635/640s, to Apr 13, didn’t lower the return significantly.  Still trying to roll out and down my Jan 13 655/660 BCS to Apr 650/655, willing to lower pay out from 3.3 times to 2.7 times.

    Going on vacation for a few days so I have opened and saved several bids for Apr BCSs @ 595/600, 585/590 and 575/580 at varying prices that would fill around $550, $540 and $530.  The pay out is less than stellar, but would average out around 2 times.  Will monitor using my wife’s iPad.  My risk tolerance is lower at the moment.

    I also got to thinking, 3.3 times versus 2.7 times, I mean what the ..... where else could I possibly get a return of 2.7 times, I mean really how greedy must I be.

    ......this mood will pass and greed will again take over at some point though smile  or maybe :( perspective is everything.

    [ Edited: 27 July 2012 11:16 PM by rickag ]

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    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Posted: 27 July 2012 11:31 PM #29

    NYT has a story that AAPL may be making a strategic investment in Twittet

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 27 July 2012 11:43 PM #30

    Phoebear611 - 28 July 2012 02:31 AM

    NYT has a story that AAPL may be making a strategic investment in Twittet

    here’s the link.  sounds very promising.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/28/technology/apple-is-said-to-discuss-an-investment-in-twitter.html?hp&emc=na

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    “My mind hovers on hummingbird wings.”  D. Eggers