Weekend Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 28 July 2012 12:24 AM #31

    rickag - 28 July 2012 02:11 AM

    (...)
    I also got to thinking, 3.3 times versus 2.7 times, I mean what the ..... where else could I possibly get a return of 2.7 times, I mean really how greedy must I be.
    (...)

    Yep, been there, thought that.

         
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    Posted: 28 July 2012 12:26 AM #32

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 09:07 PM
    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:24 PM

    iPad - any thoughts here?  I still think it is nothing more than an oversold bounce.  Next week there are some pretty huge meetings (both the ECB and the FED) .... jobs numbers on Friday….end of month also next week.  The commentary from Europe continues to be commentary with no action…I still think AAPL goes lower before we go up ... but to be honest ... nothing makes sense…the world is not a logical place anymore.  Do you disagree? Well you shouldn’t…just look at AMZN’s P/E and price.  It blows me away.  What are your thoughts?  Charts say anything to you?

    I am assuming it’s an oversold bounce until proven otherwise.  We’re sitting at the 38% retracement of the move from 609 to 570—that’s sufficient retrace for continuation (down).  So we shall see.

    The slope of the weekly MACD-h went negative again, indicating the consolidation period isn’t over.  Often (but not always), a sell-off of this magnitude isn’t over this quickly, nor is it only one leg.  There’s usually an oversold bounce, followed by another leg down.  My targets: 565—> 550—> 535

    Last year, we spent most of the year consolidating.  That 200+ point sprint didn’t change the way this stock trades.  The bulk of the time we are range-bound, then we get short, violent bursts to the upside, forging new ground.

    How many times did we test that 350 area last year?  First half of the year, it was resistance, then it converted to support.  I thought that level would be 580 this year.  Now I think it’s 550. 

    Now, if the SPY goes parabolic (on anticipation or reality of QE), we may (or may not) go along for the ride.

    According to my records, I bought at $363 on November 25th, 2011. So remember how fast and how quickly the stock has moved over the course of the year. But I remember the $320s as the bottom support. I bought several times in this range over the period of a couple of months in spring/summer. We’ve been range bound for six month periods just in recent memory and this is, what, month four?

         
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    Posted: 28 July 2012 04:08 AM #33

    Apple Genius ads have arrived!

    Apple…retail…Genius…ads?  You know what, they’re not bad!  I guess it helps that the genius channels a little bit of Marty McFly.

    http://www.apple.com/mac/videos/

    [ Edited: 28 July 2012 04:14 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 28 July 2012 08:31 AM #34

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 08:43 PM

    I sold half of everything.  If we never see this price again, the other half can enjoy the profits.  If we go lower, I can buy everything back cheaper.

    I always enjoy reading your level headed comments pertaining to the uncertainty of ‘investing’ in aapl.

      much appreciated
          JohnG

         
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    Posted: 28 July 2012 08:37 AM #35

    lovemyipad - 27 July 2012 09:07 PM
    Phoebear611 - 27 July 2012 08:24 PM

    iPad - any thoughts here?  I still think it is nothing more than an oversold bounce.  Next week there are some pretty huge meetings (both the ECB and the FED) .... jobs numbers on Friday….end of month also next week.  The commentary from Europe continues to be commentary with no action…I still think AAPL goes lower before we go up ... but to be honest ... nothing makes sense…the world is not a logical place anymore.  Do you disagree? Well you shouldn’t…just look at AMZN’s P/E and price.  It blows me away.  What are your thoughts?  Charts say anything to you?

    I am assuming it’s an oversold bounce until proven otherwise.  We’re sitting at the 38% retracement of the move from 609 to 570—that’s sufficient retrace for continuation (down).  So we shall see.

    The slope of the weekly MACD-h went negative again, indicating the consolidation period isn’t over.  Often (but not always), a sell-off of this magnitude isn’t over this quickly, nor is it only one leg.  There’s usually an oversold bounce, followed by another leg down.  My targets: 565—> 550—> 535

    Last year, we spent most of the year consolidating.  That 200+ point sprint didn’t change the way this stock trades.  The bulk of the time we are range-bound, then we get short, violent bursts to the upside, forging new ground.

    How many times did we test that 350 area last year?  First half of the year, it was resistance, then it converted to support.  I thought that level would be 580 this year.  Now I think it’s 550. 

    Now, if the SPY goes parabolic (on anticipation or reality of QE), we may (or may not) go along for the ride.

    Lovey, one question…

    ...is there a way to link your TA analysis somehow with the valuation analysis. What I mean is that there is a difference between a sell-off from a PE of 17 to 15 than from a sell-off from a PE of 15 to 13. Shouldn’t TA incorporate this in our thinking of what retracement levels should be most likely/appropriate?

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    Posted: 28 July 2012 08:53 AM #36

    gyromac - 27 July 2012 10:34 PM

    (...)

    well lets go through a product check….

    new macbooks….ok check got them….nice that they have retina….but not earth shattering

    new iMacs….not yet….not really much to change here anyway…not earth shattering

    new ipads….already out….selling well… no new earth shattering news here going forward…just sell more of them

    mini ipad….really???? is this our idea or just are we being forced into this market by the likes of GOOG and AMZN???  great we blast 1-2 billion in revenue through at a 20% GPM as opposed to 40+ on everything else….we aren’t going to make it cheap and go backwards…so don’t tell me we can make a huge margin on this (even with our supply chain)

    iphone 5… China Mobile (CHL) compatibility is the only reason i am excited for this phone…but after that we better start getting innovative again….we have 90% of the world’s carriers covered now….all the other new features of the phone are pretty boring personally….

    iTV….who knows….big random guess at this point….but doubt we have in time for xmas or SuperBowl 2013….so don’t plan on anything big….

    maybe there is a secret product in development….maybe passbook turns AAPL into a payment processor…..

    bottom line i miss Steve Jobs….AAPL is starting to show they miss him too….

    i rather being dealing with health rumors now rather than what is the next $50 billion product question at this point…..

    jmho

    You have some valid points, however, I am actually satisfied with the product portfolio that Apple has.

    IMO Apple doesn’t need to invent every year something new. Yes, the changes between iPad 2 and 3 or between new and old Mac models are not revolutionary, but their are still significant enough for many current owners to switch and for new customers to buy. If something is great don’t change it just for the sake of changing. Do it to improve it a little more.

    The next iPhone ( I think it will be called the new iPhone) will probably look more like the 4S than a totally new design. I am looking for a slightly bigger screen, improved Siri, iOS 6, maybe a better camera, and a decent battery life. I do not need more for the device to be great. It is important that it functions well with my iMac and my iPad. And I think that a lot of people who bought Apple products in the last few years are thinking similarly.

    For revenues and EPS to grow in a way that will lead the stock price to grow 20% per year there are no new product categories needed. At least for the next few years. Therefore, I do not even include a possible iTV in my valuation model.

    Can Apple do better? Sure. But it could do much worse.

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  • Posted: 28 July 2012 08:58 AM #37

    I think the move was simply a strategic move which makes sense…I really don’t think they are buying Twitter:

    Apple doesn’t need a social network. And Twitter doesn’t need to cash out.

    APPLE BUY TWITTER - NO WAY…...

    FORTUNE—Having posted a piece Friday suggesting—right in the first sentence—that Apple (AAPL) would never buy Twitter, my heart stopped briefly when I saw the headline Apple Officials Said to Consider Stake in Twitter in Saturday’s New York Times.

    Could I have been wrong?

    I calmed down a bit when I read Evelyn Rusli and Nick Bilton’s piece. These were discussions, not a deal. About an investment, not an acquisition. And the negotiations were over. Done. Kaput.

    The Wall Street Journal’s catch-up-to-the-Times piece, posted a few hours later, made an acquisition seem even more remote. According to the Journal’s “person familiar with the talks,” the discussions occurred more than a year ago, not in “recent months” as the Times had it.

    Both papers implied, without actually saying it, that the proposed investment was never consummated.

    But so what if Apple had invested a few hundred million dollars in Twitter? That’s the kind of deal I can see making sense for both parties.

    For a couple days worth of iPhone revenue, Apple gets the kind of cooperation from Twitter that it doesn’t get from Facebook (FB).

    And Twitter can postpone a little longer the day it has to junk up its elegant 140-character messaging service with a flood of intrusive advertising.

    Apple is a company famous for sticking to its knitting—which as Tim Cook reminds us at every opportunity—is making the “very best products in the world” and selling millions of them at profit margins that are the envy of the rest of the industry. Everything else it does—from iTunes to the Genius Bar—it does in support of those hardware sales.

    “Does Apple need to be social? Yes.” Cook asked himself rhetorically at a tech conference this spring. “Apple doesn’t have to own a social network.”

    For his part, Twitter CEO Dick Costello told the L.A. Times earlier this month that his company was in no hurry go public or find a buyer.

    Twitter has, he said, “a truckload of money in the bank.”

    He did not say if any of it was Apple’s.

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  • Posted: 28 July 2012 09:19 AM #38

    I assume some watched the Olympics opening ceremony and saw the AAPL Genius ads.  I didn’t like them at all - felt they weren’t “Apple Quality Ads”....but then I thought - heck what do I know - who am I to judge. 
    This morning there has been commentary on how awful they are as I troll through different sites.  Does AAPL have a new person at the helm of their advertising?  Something is not right here.

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    Posted: 28 July 2012 09:42 AM #39

    Find the new adds neither bad nor good. At least I don’t think that they will have a negative effect on earnings.

    More interesting is the following claim:
    Apple’s iPhone twice as profitable per unit as iPad

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  • Posted: 28 July 2012 10:32 AM #40

    Phoebear611 - 28 July 2012 12:19 PM

    I assume some watched the Olympics opening ceremony and saw the AAPL Genius ads.  I didn’t like them at all - felt they weren’t “Apple Quality Ads”....but then I thought - heck what do I know - who am I to judge. 
    This morning there has been commentary on how awful they are as I troll through different sites.  Does AAPL have a new person at the helm of their advertising?  Something is not right here.

    I agree.  The new commercials are actually borderline terrible.  Not clever, not funny, not good.

         
  • Posted: 28 July 2012 11:05 AM #41

    I laughed out loud at two of the ads, but maybe I have a warped sense of humor.

    More important than the humor quotient, the ads effectively start making the practical case for owning Apple products, instead of just the gee-wiz case.  They depict what people actually use computers for away from work, and they show how the combination of a good device, good software, and superior support all combine to get the job done. 

    Apple competitors can ape the gee-wiz factor, but they can’t come close to making the practical case offered by the Apple ecosystem.

         
  • Posted: 28 July 2012 11:23 AM #42

    macorange - 28 July 2012 02:05 PM

    I laughed out loud at two of the ads, but maybe I have a warped sense of humor.

    More important than the humor quotient, the ads effectively start making the practical case for owning Apple products, instead of just the gee-wiz case.  They depict what people actually use computers for away from work, and they show how the combination of a good device, good software, and superior support all combine to get the job done. 

    Apple competitors can ape the gee-wiz factor, but they can’t come close to making the practical case offered by the Apple ecosystem.

    Somewhat unrelated but I had a chance to use the genius bar for the very first time this past Thursday.  I had a meeting in Portland Maine which is 120 miles from my home.  It is also the nearest Apple store to me.  4 weeks ago I lost the screen on my MBPS, so I thought this was a good opportunity to have it looked at.  I had no appointment, thet old me it would be2 hours before the next appointment.  I told them how far I had come and my meeting was in 1 hour.  They said they would try to sqeeezeme I within 20 minutes if I wanted to wait.  I said I would wait.  In less than 5 minutes a genius came and got me.  Rana few tests and determined my logic board failed, this is a $700 part.  She then stated, if I wanted to, Apple has a flat fee repair where they will go throught the machine and replace any and all bad components for $310.  I jumped on that deal as I was redy to drop $2k on a new machine.  Awesome customer service!

    BTW, I bought this particular MBP in 2007 according to apple records.  Now, who says the “premium” that we pay for Apple products is not worth it?  I wonder what Dell would have told me?

         
  • Posted: 28 July 2012 11:46 AM #43

    Jcaron - 28 July 2012 02:23 PM

    I wonder what Dell would have told me?

    Because your product was out of warranty, they would not have talked to you.

    Now, from multiple personal experiences I can tell you what would have happened if it had been in warranty: you would have spent from 2-10 hours on the phone, talking to 5-20 different people in order to, first convince them that there was an actual hardware problem that could not blamed on the OS, then, second, to manage to get to someone who could arrange a replacement or repair.

         
  • Posted: 28 July 2012 11:48 AM #44

    Here is the best interpretation of the Twitter news this morning IMHO:http://venturebeat.com/2012/07/28/apple-invest-twitter/

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    Posted: 28 July 2012 01:07 PM #45

    Phoebear611 - 28 July 2012 11:58 AM

    I think the move was simply a strategic move which makes sense…I really don’t think they are buying Twitter:

    Apple doesn’t need a social network. And Twitter doesn’t need to cash out.

    APPLE BUY TWITTER - NO WAY…...

    FORTUNE—Having posted a piece Friday suggesting—right in the first sentence—that Apple (AAPL) would never buy Twitter, my heart stopped briefly when I saw the headline Apple Officials Said to Consider Stake in Twitter in Saturday’s New York Times.

    Could I have been wrong?

    I calmed down a bit when I read Evelyn Rusli and Nick Bilton’s piece. These were discussions, not a deal. About an investment, not an acquisition. And the negotiations were over. Done. Kaput.

    The Wall Street Journal’s catch-up-to-the-Times piece, posted a few hours later, made an acquisition seem even more remote. According to the Journal’s “person familiar with the talks,” the discussions occurred more than a year ago, not in “recent months” as the Times had it.

    Both papers implied, without actually saying it, that the proposed investment was never consummated.

    But so what if Apple had invested a few hundred million dollars in Twitter? That’s the kind of deal I can see making sense for both parties.

    For a couple days worth of iPhone revenue, Apple gets the kind of cooperation from Twitter that it doesn’t get from Facebook (FB).

    And Twitter can postpone a little longer the day it has to junk up its elegant 140-character messaging service with a flood of intrusive advertising.

    Apple is a company famous for sticking to its knitting—which as Tim Cook reminds us at every opportunity—is making the “very best products in the world” and selling millions of them at profit margins that are the envy of the rest of the industry. Everything else it does—from iTunes to the Genius Bar—it does in support of those hardware sales.

    “Does Apple need to be social? Yes.” Cook asked himself rhetorically at a tech conference this spring. “Apple doesn’t have to own a social network.”

    For his part, Twitter CEO Dick Costello told the L.A. Times earlier this month that his company was in no hurry go public or find a buyer.

    Twitter has, he said, “a truckload of money in the bank.”

    He did not say if any of it was Apple’s.

    As per this article, the news is a year old! It might have been rekindled as a result of a recent meeting at Sun Valley between Tim Cook and Twitter execs.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443343704577553953443264394.html