Weekend Updates - Archive

  • Posted: 04 August 2012 01:38 AM #16

    Phoebear611 - 03 August 2012 10:59 PM

    Have you all been reading the tweets on the trial…so interesting.  Seems SJ in 2011 had been advised by the chief of iTunes that there was a market and a need for the 7” tablet and he was extremely receptive to the findings.  It’s all over the press right now.  A few more tidbits…all so interesting.

    Not surprising in the least bit in my opinion. I think SJ had various screen sizes in mind since the beginning (10 years ago?). Of course, first you have to prove that one screen size (any screen size) will work in the marketplace. After that, it’s “let’s hit 2 or 3 main sizes to cover all the bases.” It’s a big time no brainer. And SJ had a huge brain.

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 02:47 AM #17

    JDSOCAL: Uh, the presumption is that the EO?s sold the options, not bought them Kloot.

    In my original post, I meant 615 calls, not puts BTW.

    The beauty of selling options is you get a credit, which you keep if the strike doesn?t, well, strike.

    yes, i know how options work, i was defending options last spring/summer when everyone was crying that using options was gambling.  in your original post when you said “puts” it changed the meaning of what you were saying, so it was just misinterpretation of your point because you said they were selling AAPL down because of their (EO’s) put positions.

    contrary to most on AFB, i think the whole EO concept is a bit overblown.  not saying AAPL isn’t manipulated sometimes.

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 05:44 AM #18

    kloot - 04 August 2012 05:47 AM

    JDSOCAL: Uh, the presumption is that the EO?s sold the options, not bought them Kloot.

    In my original post, I meant 615 calls, not puts BTW.

    The beauty of selling options is you get a credit, which you keep if the strike doesn?t, well, strike.

    yes, i know how options work, i was defending options last spring/summer when everyone was crying that using options was gambling.  in your original post when you said “puts” it changed the meaning of what you were saying, so it was just misinterpretation of your point because you said they were selling AAPL down because of their (EO’s) put positions.

    contrary to most on AFB, i think the whole EO concept is a bit overblown.  not saying AAPL isn’t manipulated sometimes.

    I’m sure I speak for many here when I say we are breathlessly awaiting your superior, alternative theory on why AAPL consistently pins to almost the exact max option pain range every week, Nostradamus. 

    And nice timing, BTW, the criticize the theory, when sentiment finally trumps pain due to the impending iPhone release, after like 6 weeks of pins.

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  • Posted: 04 August 2012 11:19 AM #19

    JDSoCal - 04 August 2012 08:44 AM
    kloot - 04 August 2012 05:47 AM

    JDSOCAL: Uh, the presumption is that the EO?s sold the options, not bought them Kloot.

    In my original post, I meant 615 calls, not puts BTW.

    The beauty of selling options is you get a credit, which you keep if the strike doesn?t, well, strike.

    yes, i know how options work, i was defending options last spring/summer when everyone was crying that using options was gambling.  in your original post when you said “puts” it changed the meaning of what you were saying, so it was just misinterpretation of your point because you said they were selling AAPL down because of their (EO’s) put positions.

    contrary to most on AFB, i think the whole EO concept is a bit overblown.  not saying AAPL isn’t manipulated sometimes.

    I’m sure I speak for many here when I say we are breathlessly awaiting your superior, alternative theory on why AAPL consistently pins to almost the exact max option pain range every week, Nostradamus. 

    And nice timing, BTW, the criticize the theory, when sentiment finally trumps pain due to the impending iPhone release, after like 6 weeks of pins.

    Market makers dont like directional risk, just like many of us like spread better , so chances as if they manipulate anything, its not that simple.
    More on it here avnd elsewhere http://www.asx.com.au/products/how-market-makers-trade-options.htm

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 11:53 AM #20

    JDSoCal - 04 August 2012 08:44 AM

    I’m sure I speak for many here when I say we are breathlessly awaiting your superior, alternative theory on why AAPL consistently pins to almost the exact max option pain range every week, Nostradamus. 

    And nice timing, BTW, the criticize the theory, when sentiment finally trumps pain due to the impending iPhone release, after like 6 weeks of pins.

     

    my opinion has nothing to do with whatever happened this week.  pinning and max pain can be different.  pinning happens as a consequence of all the puts and calls getting closed out and market makers hedging risk.  if that happens inside the “max pain” range or not is a separate issue.  i’ve written about a handful of times before, not just yesterday.  my question is this - when do you “lock in” what you to determine to be max pain?  the friday before?  monday?  tuesday?  friday at 3:30 eastern?  it’s like calculus.  the closer to expiration time, the more accurate the “max pain” theory will predict the final range.  because it’s just math and probability.  open interest/volume in call and put strikes will converge toward the stock price as expiration nears.  if you show me max pain theory results starting from monday or tuesday, then maybe it would be more convincing.  but starting from one day before expiration to calculate the success of the theory tilts the results, simply from statistical probability.  just my opinion.  AFB is for discussion, after all. 

    not sure why the hostility.  you called me out for what was your mistake, and now the tone keeps escalating?

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 06:35 PM #21

    JDSoCal - 04 August 2012 08:44 AM

    snip….........

    JD, just an FYI, that animated GIF is VERY annoying. Hoping you’ll refrain from using similar in the future.

      cheers
          JohnG

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 06:51 PM #22

    Stupidity update:

    All of my (non-IRA) AAPL was called away at 615 plus I’m now short, as I expected and as the broker rep I talked to on Friday evening said. I should be able to close out the short on Monday, and I’m still still holding LEAPS, so I’m well hedged in case AAPL gaps up big on Monday.

    Even though capital gains rates are scheduled to go up next year, I was hoping to defer those gains for years to come. So my original tax plan just went out the window. The consolation prize is that I’ll be paying cap. gains tax at a lower rate than we may see for a long time. But I still feel pretty stupid.

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    Posted: 04 August 2012 07:24 PM #23

    this has been the week for stupid…or maybe just bad, bad timing.  You’re not alone.  I pulled out of aapl completely because I figured it was going to go way down before I got to sell and then buy at a lower price, at which point it went up.  glad for those who are having that work in their favor.

    I learned a lot this past week about my own fear levels;  I paid off my 2nd TD with some of the aapl $ I pulled out, and when I buy back in , hopefully before month’s end, I can relax and just be greedy about a smaller investment .  Before I was concerned that the $ for the 2nd might not come back to me when I needed them.  Simplify is a good life plan, even if a bit of stupidity interferes now and again.

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    Posted: 04 August 2012 07:33 PM #24

    I forget Rosie, how long have you been in the markets? 

    It’s an ongoing process.  I was “victimized” by AAPL’s very sudden snapback as well.  You just do the best you can and try to learn from mistakes, like anything.  It’s just that the markets move faster than ever and it’s real money at stake. LOL

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 07:41 PM #25

    Mav - 04 August 2012 10:33 PM

    I forget Rosie, how long have you been in the markets? 

    It’s an ongoing process.  I was “victimized” by AAPL’s very sudden snapback as well.  You just do the best you can and try to learn from mistakes, like anything.  It’s just that the markets move faster than ever and it’s real money at stake. LOL

    4 months….

    forward is always the direction of choice in my life.  always trying to get a bit smarter along the way.  thanks for the re assurance.

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    Posted: 04 August 2012 07:45 PM #26

    4 months!  Welcome to the markets, indeed! wink

    This is a really tough time to be in the markets, but having started trading/investing in the dot-com/dot-bomb era, I can attest to certain benefits of being forged in the fires as a market participant…provided you survive (some get zeroed out along the way, and I got in tricky spots quite often).

    We don’t really do advice here of course, but we advocate common sense and discipline even as the best of us falter now and then (I self-assess as an average retail trader at best).  Getting through this market cycle will help with future ones.

    [ Edited: 04 August 2012 07:47 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 07:51 PM #27

    Mav - 04 August 2012 10:45 PM

    4 months!  Welcome to the markets, indeed! wink

    This is a really tough time to be in the markets, but having started trading/investing in the dot-com/dot-bomb era, I can attest to certain benefits of being forged in the fires as a market participant…provided you survive (some get zeroed out along the way, and I got in tricky spots quite often).

    We don’t really do advice here of course, but we advocate common sense and discipline even as the best of us falter now and then (I self-assess as an average retail trader at best).  Getting through this market cycle will help with future ones.

    I can’t remember anything new I’ve done in life that wasn’t forged in the fires, and survive I always do.  Sometimes I think “hey,  I know way more than I ever wanted to about so many things I never thought I would need in life, and probably never need to know about again”...and here I am finding another “edge” .    Trust me, this one’s a bit saner/safer than some others I’ve been through.  Scary, huh?

    congrats on your staying power in the markets…clearly it’s given you some great returns both in dollars and confidence.

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    Posted: 04 August 2012 07:52 PM #28

    LVS option longs like me must be _loving_ this news: rolleyes

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48504431

    Oh well, we’ll see what happens in PM/Monday trading.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 07:57 PM #29

    Thanks Rosie, but talk to the millionaires or the mega-multiples on total seed capital people.  I’m not one of them.  The more I try not to think in terms of “outperforming others” or “competition”, the more I can try to define what I want for myself.  I have more reasonable goals for this year (than I had earlier this year! LOL), and being thrown around by the waves a few times helps with humility.

    [ Edited: 04 August 2012 08:09 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 04 August 2012 08:58 PM #30

    Rumor right now, but could be another piece to Passbook in iOS 6.


    Apple is in talks to acquire The Fancy, a fast-growing social commerce site backed by cofounders of Twitter and Facebook, Business Insider has learned.
    The objective: to secure a role for Apple in the growing e-commerce market, putting the 400 million-plus users with credit cards on file with Apple’s iTunes Store to work shopping?with Apple getting a cut of the action.


    I couldn’t paste the link…..blacklisted Business Insider

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