AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 05 August 2012 07:03 PM

    Gap up over that 620 wall?

    [ Edited: 10 August 2012 09:10 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 07:20 PM #1

    I’d prefer that squiggly line start around 615…but sure, why not.

    But I have to ask - “what about all those gaps”?  Sure, this is very familiar territory, but they’re still gaps.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 08:56 PM #2

    Futures indicate squiggling.

    Items which move the AAPL needle upward in order of probability:

    1. iPhone parts pix, etc
    2. Juicy notes from the Apple-Samsung trial

    Possible, but not this month in the US
    3. Decisive action for jobs or financial infrastructure somewhere (US, Europe, China, Brazil). 

    The anticipated groundswell of one of these
    4. Retina iMacs and/or
    5. Apple Television
    6. iPad mini
    7. Consumers breaking open the wallets   (actually, this is the one most likely to occur soonest from 3-7).

         
  • Posted: 05 August 2012 09:07 PM #3

    And they’re off…Nikkei jumps 1.5% at open

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 09:10 PM #4

    It’s very early but Nasdaq 100 futures are light green.  I don’t think AAPL’s run out of short-term momentum just yet, which is why I have some risk in Sep 12.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 09:28 PM #5

    Phoebear611 - 06 August 2012 12:07 AM

    And they’re off…Nikkei jumps 1.5% at open

    If the Nikkei’s up, we are definitely headed for the moon!!! :D

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 09:33 PM #6

    Mav - 05 August 2012 10:20 PM

    I’d prefer that squiggly line start around 615…but sure, why not.

    But I have to ask - “what about all those gaps”?  Sure, this is very familiar territory, but they’re still gaps.

    Here’s my take on gaps…  They are more relevant during consolidation versus range expansion.  IF we’re consolidating, THEN chances are higher we’ll fill this wave’s gaps on the next wave in the opposite direction.

    So…let’s see how high we can get before the next downwave (on the daily).  IMHO, unless we’re breaking new ground, we’ll fill these recent gaps.

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 09:38 PM #7

    Tetrachloride - 05 August 2012 11:56 PM

    Futures indicate squiggling.

    Items which move the AAPL needle upward in order of probability:
    (...)

    I’d add one item to the top of the list:

    1) SPX

    I think too many participants expect a stall/top at 1400…which makes me think “short squeeze.”  We shall see…

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 09:53 PM #8

    S&P 1400 and NASDAQ 3000 would probably happen around the same time.  Should be interesting.

    Europe is on holiday this month and it seems more than a few of the leaders are too.  That’s “not good” so I’m incorporating that into my thinking as well.  We may be up Monday, but two Mondays from now?  The Euro zone isn’t a “no news is good news” kinda place right now.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 05 August 2012 11:33 PM #9

    lovemyipad - 06 August 2012 12:28 AM
    Phoebear611 - 06 August 2012 12:07 AM

    And they’re off…Nikkei jumps 1.5% at open

    If the Nikkei’s up, we are definitely headed for the moon!!! :D

    Seriously. Nikkei is always red. Or at least it seems that way.

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2012 11:56 PM #10

    I’m skeptical just how long a global market rally could last - but I’m more than ready for one starting Monday!

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-06/asian-stocks-jump-as-yen-weakens-on-u-s-payrolls-oil-retreats.html

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 06 August 2012 01:11 AM #11

    Apple recently published a very interesting chart (see below), showing that each new generation of iPhone sells more than all the previous generation iPhones combined.  Through FQ3 2012, Apple has sold 244M iPhones.  If this trend were to continue with iPhone 5, Apple would need to sell 61M+ iPhones for EACH quarter of Fiscal 2013.

    Consider, this would generate approx. $80 EPS for FQ 2013 and assumes NO growth in any of its other product lines, including iPad.  Further, a P/E of just 12 produces a price target of approx. $960. 

    I think this is turning heads re: sentiment with owning Apple.  It is very bullish, helped by the fact that the iPhone is likely coming to China Mobile during FY 2013.

    [ Edited: 06 August 2012 10:26 AM by ByeTMO ]      
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    Posted: 06 August 2012 01:35 AM #12

    Not quite…

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter_simple.svg

    Maybe Schiller was being a little imprecise with his remarks, though you can’t argue with iPhone’s growth curve even if Red October 2012 shows iPhone sales to be a tad slow in fiscal Q4 (depending on how many new iPhones can be sold in the last 10 days of September, anyway).

    Unless the new iPhone is a major challenge to manufacture, I expect sales to peak in fiscal Q1 and Q2 as usual, with another significant dropoff in fiscal Q3 as the new “slow quarter” as long as Apple can continue to deliver new iPhones with time remaining in fiscal Q4.  100% YOY growth is no longer reasonable to expect, so for now I’ll take the “under” on 244M iPhones in fiscal ‘13.  Apple would need to blow the doors off with a 70-75M iPhone number in fiscal Q1 (or high 60s, demand-constrained into fiscal Q2) to change my mind.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 06 August 2012 02:01 AM #13

    I’m not predicting $80 EPS.  However, I should point out this EPS # could include the equivalent of $7 EPS Apple adds from winning against SameSung (assuming treble damages). :-D

    I don’t expect sales to be linear, of course.  That doesn’t mean iPhone 5 sales will follow a consistent pattern either.  Adding China Mobile in Q2 makes much more sense than Q1.  Finally, I think most will agree that the iPhone 5 will be a bigger upgrade than the 4s was to 4.  Much bigger.

         
  • Posted: 06 August 2012 02:06 AM #14

    AppleDoc - 06 August 2012 02:33 AM
    lovemyipad - 06 August 2012 12:28 AM
    Phoebear611 - 06 August 2012 12:07 AM

    And they’re off…Nikkei jumps 1.5% at open

    If the Nikkei’s up, we are definitely headed for the moon!!! :D

    Seriously. Nikkei is always red. Or at least it seems that way.

    Nikkei is up 2% Monday.

         
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    Posted: 06 August 2012 02:07 AM #15

    Mercel - 06 August 2012 05:01 AM

    Finally, I think most will agree that the iPhone 5 will be a bigger upgrade than the 4s was to 4.  Much bigger.

    Literally. :D

    As far as sales, we’ll see one of last glimpses of iPhone megagrowth as Apple guides iPhone towards relative market maturity.  China Mobile sales have yet to be baked into AAPL’s share price, and greatly expanded Siri language support will make a big difference going forward.

    [ Edited: 06 August 2012 02:15 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.