AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 12 August 2012 07:51 PM

    Which comes first, 630 or 610? smile

    [ Edited: 19 August 2012 01:52 AM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 12 August 2012 12:28 PM #1

    With the 20 day SMA at 603, and a pile of puts at 600, along with several weeks of price leveraging around that price point….it seems to me we have now successfully built a floor there, absent some massively bad macro news.

    We roll into OE this week ( look at all those calls at 650!) and then the speculation for the September 12 event can begin in earnest.  Assuming we get a launch window of September 20-22, the September options will prove very interesting. If I am an average investor ( as contrasted to an EO), I certainly won’t expect disappointment between August 18, when my current put insurance expires, and September 21st, when my next buy or sell expires so 600 should be off the table. We arent going there. Would I sell my puts now at 620 for insurance? 630?  How about September calls?  Buy at 630 to play the run up and massive launch….....and the launch will be THE SAME DATES as expiration.

    Oh baby, roll the bones!  LOL  :drool:

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    Posted: 12 August 2012 08:01 PM #2

    Time warp!

    Oh, iPad post-teleporting magic. LOL  Anyway…

    lovemyipad - 12 August 2012 10:51 PM

    Which comes first, 630 or 610? smile

    For the sake of my momo trade, 630. wink

    610 wouldn’t be devastating, but the way AAPL’s been trading, it’d be something to take a very close look at if it happened in certain market contexts (AAPL leads lower, AAPL has sudden bearish divergence from the indices, stuff like that).

    Those 1-hour and 2-hour BBs are hinting at resolution in either direction very soon.  So I don’t think we’ll have to wait long.  We break 625, there’s that gap at 644. smile

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2012 08:03 PM #3

    Gravity tends to be stronger than dreams.

    That said, gravity has been weak recently.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2012 08:04 PM #4

    I get those who were concerned by AAPL’s 615 >> 570 >> 620 action in such a short timeframe, but I think of it more as a snapback based on improved market knowledge (iPhone probably arriving in time to help out the Q4 2012 numbers, and arriving earlier to help stave off the competition). 

    Sure, Draghi and some market bullishness, but apparently the S&P multiple is 16.1 or so, and AAPL remains at a Dangerfield-esque 14.6.  Valuation still matters.  NFLX, GMCR, CMG, they didn’t really have one that fits.  AAPL has been chronically undervalued and it shows in the stabilizing price action.  And with two weeks of EO-defeating closes, I think the shorts are getting nervous (even though AAPL 650 might have to wait a little while longer than Aug 17).

    [ Edited: 12 August 2012 08:11 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 12 August 2012 08:48 PM #5

    Someone put a bullet in my head….why on earth does NBC keep putting Ryan Seacrest on to highlight the Olympics?  A sportscaster should be doing this not the American Idol host.  For the love of God! Sorry - had to vent somewhere. Thanks for indulging me…I’ll move on now.

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    Posted: 12 August 2012 08:50 PM #6

    Phoebear - you have too much to live for!

    Oh.  Carry on, then. raspberry LOL

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 12 August 2012 09:01 PM #7

    I am going to maintain my current cash position, about 25%, for now.  Another 20% is in the divvy portion of the portfolio (about 12% of that portion is in AAPL shares), and the remaining 55% is in calls/LEAPS.

         
  • Posted: 12 August 2012 09:08 PM #8

    Hate to be a Debbie Downer on a Sunday night but guess who’s back from vacation…MERKEL!  Headline risk will be as intense as ever.

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    Posted: 12 August 2012 09:10 PM #9

    Some volatility would be nice. :eg: wink

    The Eurozone has to figure stuff out, or Euro breakup fear will grip the entire frickin’ world (again).  It’s not like this is a “no news is good news” situation anyway.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2012 09:29 PM #10

    Phoebear611 - 13 August 2012 12:08 AM

    Hate to be a Debbie Downer on a Sunday night but guess who’s back from vacation…MERKEL!  Headline risk will be as intense as ever.

    Ah, Ms. 4th Reich-Merkel.  Wouldn’t choose to be in her Birkenstocks.

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    “My mind hovers on hummingbird wings.”  D. Eggers

         
  • Posted: 12 August 2012 09:40 PM #11

    roni - 13 August 2012 12:01 AM

    I am going to maintain my current cash position, about 25%, for now.  Another 20% is in the divvy portion of the portfolio (about 12% of that portion is in AAPL shares), and the remaining 55% is in calls/LEAPS.

    I’m 100% cash until I get confirmation of direction.  Could be tomorrow, a week, month or year, but I’m exhausted from all the defensive plays I’ve implemented in the last 6 months.

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    Posted: 12 August 2012 10:10 PM #12

    50% cash and *trying* not to add to longs or shorts until I see a temporary top or bottom.

    Gregg, must say I too am quite fatigued.

    Ideally, I would really like to just let my existing positions work (or not work) and sit on my cash until we reach extremes.  We might have whipsaws this week, and while usually I like volatility, right here the direction is too uncertain for me to risk getting whipped or sawed. wink

    [ Edited: 12 August 2012 10:22 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 12 August 2012 10:22 PM #13

    100% cash?  Sounds like capitulation…

    Also, why are you guys tired?  I’m feeling pretty damn excited!  (Even as I feel like I’m living dog years in this market, and look into the mental equivalent of Glucosamine/Chondroitin as I mentioned in Weekend Updates… LOL)

    I should explain a bit.  I think the market is priming to move directionally again, which is nice because it’s easier to follow trends or minitrends.  Also, AAPL is holding up just fine, which bodes well for the new iPhone and beyond.  And with options IV pretty low, even unhedged bets don’t have as much volatility risk as they usually do.

    [ Edited: 12 August 2012 10:28 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2012 10:25 PM #14

    OMG, iPad, did you really have to go there?  Chas is posting today, y’know… wink LOL

    (Wonder if you got it)  (please don’t hurt me)

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 August 2012 10:31 PM #15

    Mav - 13 August 2012 01:22 AM

    100% cash?  Sounds like capitulation…

    Also, why are you guys tired?  I’m feeling pretty damn excited!  (Even as I look into the mental equivalent of Glucosamine/Chondroitin as I mentioned in Weekend Updates… LOL)

    Mav, I’ll experience your trades vicariously. :D I’m tired because I’ve been too nimble for too long, which always drains me…and when I’m tired, I risk being a sloppy trader.  I used to paper trade every afternoon, and these past several months, I’ve barely paper traded, and I’m missing it!!