AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 17 August 2012 11:57 AM #421

    I’m not (yet) seeing bearish divergence on the lower intraday timeframes, so I would not rule out some more “up” very, very short-term here…

    Be VERY careful here!!!!!!!!

    Also, anyone shorting anything right now…anyone with anything more than a hedge: wait for the down to begin.  Don’t front-run.  Don’t fight the tape.  Don’t average down!!

    All MHO. smile

    [ Edited: 17 August 2012 12:00 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 11:58 AM #422

    Mercel - 17 August 2012 02:50 PM
    kloot - 17 August 2012 02:33 PM
    Mercel - 17 August 2012 01:49 PM
    Phoebear611 - 17 August 2012 11:08 AM

    Andy thinks it could hit $700 earlier than we expected…maybe this has been posted and I missed it, if not, here is the article:
    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/08/17/apple-hits-a-new-all-time-high-of-636-54-in-fear-driven-rally/?source=yahoo_quote

    I like this prediction better than his previous one.

    the ‘earlier 700’ prediction was made before the other one.  the ‘other one’ is a short-term call, the 700 is an intermediate-term call.

    I was referring to this earlier in the week:

    From Bullish Cross (Andy Zaky) on Twitter:

    ?I think Apple will top out tomorrow after the open.  I think we could see $632 to $633 in the AM.  We could get a test of the highs?. (Presumably 644)

    ?Yet, after testing the highs, the stock will see a much larger pullback.  After that, we will see another rally to take out the highs.?

    We will certainly see a pullback. But from which price point? Zaky says (presumably) 644. So this is it now…

    I am not so sure even though I booked some profits.

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    Posted: 17 August 2012 11:59 AM #423

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 02:51 PM

    amsk, if you are reading: no greed, no greed, no greed!!  Your speculation paid off…don’t let it go to your head!! :D

    “Take some, book some,” as Scott Reder would say.  Me, two options: “Make like a bank robber, take the money and run,” or sell a higher strike and produce a zero-equity spread…allows for upside and downside risk…win-win. smile

    Following your advice, my queen, I sold most of my crazy weekly August 24 635/645 BCS Position today.  The rest is now free money. Probably unload on Monday. 

    I’ll raise some cash now…....be disciplined…...be strong.  Follow the plan…

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 12:02 PM #424

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 02:48 PM
    PikesPique - 17 August 2012 02:45 PM

    (...)
    However, I am coming around to the wisdom of spreads. Less at risk and considerable upside potential, though capped.
    (...)

    I don’t worry about upside as much as I worry about downside…THAT’S the part I want capped. wink

    YES! Much easier on the old heart.

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 12:03 PM #425

    Another push to 644 building…

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    Posted: 17 August 2012 12:05 PM #426

    Okay, watch out!!

    $900 Target

    Pullbacks tend to follow these lovely things.  Why can’t they ever hike their price targets after a 50-100 point drop????

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 12:06 PM #427

    Red Shirted Ensign - 17 August 2012 02:59 PM

    Following your advice, my queen, I sold most of my crazy weekly August 24 635/645 BCS Position today.  The rest is now free money. Probably unload on Monday. 

    I’ll raise some cash now…....be disciplined…...be strong.  Follow the plan…

    YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! smile

    I also love your quote: Plan the trade; trade the plan. smile

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 12:13 PM #428

    Big Al - 17 August 2012 02:58 PM

    (...)
    We will certainly see a pullback. But from which price point? Zaky says (presumably) 644. So this is it now…

    I am not so sure even though I booked some profits.

    He just says “retest of 644.”  You never know if that will fall short of target, hit the target, or exceed the target.  The “clearest” sign is a higher high on lower momentum.  When that happens, pullback is imminent.

    Right now, I see different things in different timeframes—ideally, they will all align soon.  Sometimes, the little picture ripples through the big picture.  Sometimes, the big picture rules with an iron fist.

    Also note, Zaky is only calling for 25% pullback at most!!  By “bigger” pullback, he means more than 10 points.  So, like 20.

    I make no predictions. :D

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 12:26 PM #429

    Mercel - 17 August 2012 02:50 PM
    kloot - 17 August 2012 02:33 PM
    Mercel - 17 August 2012 01:49 PM
    Phoebear611 - 17 August 2012 11:08 AM

    Andy thinks it could hit $700 earlier than we expected…maybe this has been posted and I missed it, if not, here is the article:
    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/08/17/apple-hits-a-new-all-time-high-of-636-54-in-fear-driven-rally/?source=yahoo_quote

    I like this prediction better than his previous one.

    the ‘earlier 700’ prediction was made before the other one.  the ‘other one’ is a short-term call, the 700 is an intermediate-term call.

    I was referring to this earlier in the week:

    From Bullish Cross (Andy Zaky) on Twitter:

    ?I think Apple will top out tomorrow after the open.  I think we could see $632 to $633 in the AM.  We could get a test of the highs?. (Presumably 644)

    ?Yet, after testing the highs, the stock will see a much larger pullback.  After that, we will see another rally to take out the highs.?

    yes - people are copping his quotes out of order to you.  the 700 quote was a few days after earnings.

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 12:35 PM #430

    kloot - 17 August 2012 03:26 PM

    yes - people are copping his quotes out of order to you.  the 700 quote was a few days after earnings.

    I copied what was posted earlier in the week on this thread w/out edits.  It was a tweet after all, so larger commentary is not available to non-subscribers.  I disagreed with the “much larger pullback” part and said so at the time.

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 12:39 PM #431

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 02:51 PM

    amsk, if you are reading: no greed, no greed, no greed!!  Your speculation paid off…don’t let it go to your head!! :D

    “Take some, book some,” as Scott Reder would say.  Me, two options: “Make like a bank robber, take the money and run,” or sell a higher strike and produce a zero-equity spread…allows for upside and downside risk…win-win. smile

    I’d add, in terms of “plan the play and play the plan”, if you intended it as a 6th gen iPhone play, you may want to consider selling some, but also keeping some until the invites go out, some for the event itself, and some for the initial sales.

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    Posted: 17 August 2012 01:08 PM #432

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 03:06 PM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 17 August 2012 02:59 PM

    Following your advice, my queen, I sold most of my crazy weekly August 24 635/645 BCS Position today.  The rest is now free money. Probably unload on Monday. 

    I’ll raise some cash now…....be disciplined…...be strong.  Follow the plan…

    YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! smile

    I also love your quote: Plan the trade; trade the plan. smile

    I think that this is one of the hardest parts. I booked some profits yesterday / today and am now 50% cash. Now I am waiting for a better entry point.  Even though my portfolio goes up with every increase in the stock price I am somehow anxious for the stock to drop, so that I can get a better entry point. Sometimes I do not have the discipline to wait for that moment because I am thinking that I made the wrong move and will miss the rally. Nevertheless, I will try to hold out this time and wait for a lower entry point in the next week or two.

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    Posted: 17 August 2012 01:13 PM #433

    644.50 ATH

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 01:24 PM #434

    Big Al - 17 August 2012 04:08 PM
    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 03:06 PM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 17 August 2012 02:59 PM

    Following your advice, my queen, I sold most of my crazy weekly August 24 635/645 BCS Position today.  The rest is now free money. Probably unload on Monday. 

    I’ll raise some cash now…....be disciplined…...be strong.  Follow the plan…

    YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! smile

    I also love your quote: Plan the trade; trade the plan. smile

    I think that this is one of the hardest parts. I booked some profits yesterday / today and am now 50% cash. Now I am waiting for a better entry point.  Even though my portfolio goes up with every increase in the stock price I am somehow anxious for the stock to drop, so that I can get a better entry point. Sometimes I do not have the discipline to wait for that moment because I am thinking that I made the wrong move and will miss the rally. Nevertheless, I will try to hold out this time and wait for a lower entry point in the next week or two.

    That’s why I prefer to think in terms of more or less leverage on a continuum, rather than a binary in or out of AAPL.

    AAPL is so undervalued that I have a hard time going to cash. I prefer options for gains and stock instead of cash for safety. If it goes up I still benefit, and if it goes down enough, then I lever up with more options. It sounds easier than it is in practice.

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    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 01:28 PM #435

    161.8% extension reached.  On divergence.