Long term relationships

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    Posted: 14 August 2012 10:59 AM

    Of the 34 people in my rural neighborhood, stretching for a 3/4 of a mile up and down the road, I’m 5th longest resident.  8 have been here less than 5 years.  So, its pretty stable.

    Microsoft and Apple have known each other for about 35 years.  An overwhelming percentage of Apple employees are new to the company this past 5 years.  But they are often well-aware of the Redmond influence.

    The evidence and testimony in the Apple-Samsung trial showed some new details of the sharing of intellectual property between Apple and Microsoft.  Wall St Cheat Sheet

    Google and Facebook are younger.  Google and Apple used to have a thriving relationship.  Facebook never achieved that status and won’t unless Facebook change their DNA a bit.

    Why Samsung sabotages their relationship with Apple is baffling.

    Meanwhile in retail.  Apple finally learned that retail stores are the way to get customers.  It took them over 15 years to learn and implement retail stores.  Most of large retailers that were out there in 1999-2003 got shoved aside not long after.  CompUSA and Sears ?  bah.  Now there’s a new generation.  The newer retailers are maintaining a higher standard overall and by the end of the year will be even higher.  Apple signs long-term leases for its stores.  Many of the stores will be permanent landmarks.

    I believe Apple is just warming up.  Think 5 years out.  Do we really doubt that AAPL will be less than $ 1500 ?  Do we doubt that AAPL’s cash and liquid securities will be less than 200, 300.. billion dollars ?

    My Apple hardware lasts.  Every 2-4 years, I get a new Mac.  I still have a Strawberry iMac.  It wont be long before my office is a lot higher tech than it is now and Macs will be at the center.

    I foresee a shakeout of the App Store.  Internally, some handful of developers are in deep with app and OS development.  The most trusted developers got early access to iOS 6.

    Any e-wallet concepts by Apple will be the start of a new decade of long-term relationships.  Apple will value the integrity of these relationships as strongly as I value my neighbors.

    The more Apple stores and retail partners that exist, the more Apple values its customers and vice versa.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 03:56 PM #1

    Tetrachloride - 14 August 2012 01:59 PM

    Any e-wallet concepts by Apple will be the start of a new decade of long-term relationships.  Apple will value the integrity of these relationships as strongly as I value my neighbors.

    +1 to entire post and especially above

         
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    Posted: 15 August 2012 07:37 PM #2

    Tetrachloride - 14 August 2012 01:59 PM

    Why Samsung sabotages their relationship with Apple is baffling.

    Because they could. Reminds me of the old joke,

    Mr. Snake approaches Mr. Turtle on a river bank and asks Mr. Turtle for a ride across the water since he can’t swim the river himself. Mr. Turtle politely refuses to oblige, reasoning that if he were to give Mr. Snake a ride across the river, he would surely be bitten. Mr. Snake protests saying that it would be foolish for him to bite the one carrying him, since it would result in him perishing also. Mr. Turtle considers the argument, then agrees to ferry Mr. Snake over the broad river. When they are half-way across the river Mr. Turtle feels a sharp pain and realizes he has been bitten by Mr. Snake. As the venom is beginning to take effect, Mr. Turtle sadly and resolutely asks Mr. Snake why he bit him, since the biting will also result in Mr. Snake’s demise. A wry smile came upon Mr. Snake’s face.

    “I bit you because I am a snake Mr. Turtle; that is my nature.”

    As this trial is demonstrating, Samsung is a snake, and thought they could get away with it.

    As for Google, they saw mobile was the future and got spooked. Not that they aren’t snakes. Even more dangerous (including for shareholders), they are snakes who think they are smarter than everyone else.

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  • Posted: 15 August 2012 08:00 PM #3

    Samsung would have waited until they were crawling up the other side before biting.

         
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    Posted: 15 August 2012 09:41 PM #4

    I don’t think what Samsung did is baffling at all. They want more profit. And they got it.

    This was discussed in another thread. Even if Samsung gets slapped with a severe penalty and are forced to change their designs (they already have with the S3), they still come out ahead. It might hurt a little if Apple took all of their business elsewhere, but that’s not an easy thing for Apple to do with the volume & quality of components they require.

    Samsung took a calculated risk and so far it’s working to their benefit. I also don’t think that many of their shareholders would consider what they are doing wrong in any way. Whether you call them reasons or rationalizations, there are plenty of people who are capable of justifying wholesale theft of ideas.

         
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    Posted: 15 August 2012 11:05 PM #5

    That “more profit” deal is a calculated risk.  If the jury were to award Apple any significant percentage of the $2.5B profits it wants, that’s a lot of revenue work gone down the drain.  And of course, profit aside, that would also mean retooling, because you can’t get the jury award without the whole infringement deal.

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    Posted: 16 August 2012 02:49 AM #6

    Mav - 16 August 2012 02:05 AM

    That “more profit” deal is a calculated risk.  If the jury were to award Apple any significant percentage of the $2.5B profits it wants, that’s a lot of revenue work gone down the drain.  And of course, profit aside, that would also mean retooling, because you can’t get the jury award without the whole infringement deal.

    I think Samsung would be happy to pay just $2.5 billion in damages. Its the number one smartphone distributor in the world (by units shipped), and a clear 2nd place in profitability (behind only apple).

    If you asked any other handset company if they would be willing to pay $2.5 billion to be in samsungs position, all of them would SCRAMBLE through flames to offer you the money. They would probably offer you double.

    Best possible outcome of the trial would be if apple received a large royalty payment per device from Samsung for every future android phone it sells. This would likely amount to more than $2.5 billion every year to apple.

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    Posted: 16 August 2012 03:07 AM #7

    Trust me, it won’t stop at damages.  If Apple is able to get a significant sum of $$ Apple can make Samsung pay in many other ways, potentially.

    An infringement verdict in the US would just be the start, I’d think.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 10:14 AM #8

    Speaking of long term, you need to read this.

    http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/813881-understanding-apple-as-an-investment

         
  • Posted: 20 August 2012 10:41 AM #9

    Burgess - 16 August 2012 05:49 AM

    I think Samsung would be happy to pay just $2.5 billion in damages. I

     

    Remember, if found willful then it could be 3x that amount.

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