Weekend Updates

  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 02:51 PM #121

    ...uh…in the early days, it was incalculable…

    Just see it for what it is lately.  Getting higher - for this quarter, always higher than the actual stock price.

    And headed for a bit of a reckoning sometime in the next 2-3 years, I bet, depending on Kindle.  300 or 250 multiple?  LOL

    [ Edited: 19 August 2012 02:56 PM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 19 August 2012 03:05 PM #122

    Every time I play puts on AMZN I have had a losing trade.  Makes no sense - but I can’t get suckered into making sense of it because I will just lose again…just know it.

    Signature

    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 03:08 PM #123

    We all go through reducing our short-term cap gains by shorting AMZN too early. wink

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:09 PM #124

    Phoebear611 - 19 August 2012 05:40 PM

    I just noticed that AMZN’s PE is 295.  I am just blown away.  Is this an all time high or has anyone seen this higher.  I just don’t get it at so many levels.

    It should be clear by now that P/E’s have little if any effect on individual stock prices. Looking for pricing “fairness” on this basis may be looking for patterns where they don’t really exist.

    This is why a split may be good - people are just freaking stupid when it comes to stock pricing.

    Signature

    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:29 PM #125

    Logic kills me more times than not in this market since it rarely does the “logical” thing.  Tank on great earnings, rally on misses, tank on extension of QE-twist (I did not expect that reaction!), rally ahead of Jackson Hole (ditto).  Hyper-focus on macro crap and dismiss good news, dismiss bad news and rally on optimism.

    IMHO, until we see a day where the DJI is down 100, this isn’t the time to short anything unless you have surgical precision with entries and exits.  When even the garbage stocks are up, that’s a broad-based rally…until it isn’t.  Too many top-callers make me think there’s still more room to the upside.  Fighting the tape and short-covering just keeps the positive feedback loop going.  Whenever shorts finally stop shorting and covering (capitulation), there’s usually an order vaccuum—that’s what triggers those swift mudslides.  IMHO, no “DJI down 100” = no capitulation.

    I do get nervous when analysts pile on with their AAPL upgrades AFTER a nice run, but IMHO, unless this is a bull trap, as of this moment, with only the CURRENT data, which of course can change with any new data: the weekly chart confirms that our four-month intermediate-term consolidation phase officially ENDED on Friday, and a new range expansion phase has started.  It should have a higher high and a higher low.  Any guesses as to those high-low levels are just that: guesses.  The important takeaway for the intermediate-term: upwave in an uptrend.  Any short-term downwave or pullback is counter-trend until proven otherwise.

    [ Edited: 19 August 2012 04:33 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:32 PM #126

    JDSoCal - 19 August 2012 07:09 PM

    It should be clear by now that P/E’s have little if any effect on individual stock prices. Looking for pricing “fairness” on this basis may be looking for patterns where they don’t really exist.
    (...)
    This is why a split may be good - people are just freaking stupid when it comes to stock pricing.

    Agree. smile

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:33 PM #127

    Confirms?

    I didn’t see a confirmation.  I saw something very close to one.

    But as far as trend, nothing suggests AAPL is tapering off anytime soon.  I wanted to see if AAPL would break 647 in the final minutes.  It did and the volume seemed to be there.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:34 PM #128

    SteveL - 19 August 2012 05:09 AM
    Mav - 19 August 2012 04:00 AM

    Huh?

    You have a BCS.  Exercise the long calls against the short calls - you “won the game” because you now have full value on the BCS for as many short calls as were exercised.  It’s not like those 10 shares would be enough to fill the call exercise anyway.  You should get in touch with your broker about this ASAP.

    It happened on Aug 13th, the day to register for the dividend.
    I use Interactive brokers, and that morning I got a margin call for my account.
    Basically, my short leg has already been called away and I have -590 shares and tons of money in my account.
    I was in panic as I have never had option exercised on me. In a hurry, I bought 600 shares and then sold my Sep long legs.
    I don’t know why interactive brokers did not just close out my spreads.

    i’m with IB, they don’t auto-close out your spreads, at least that’s what they told me when i asked.  and they only give you 10 minutes after market open the next day to do whatever you have to do (e.g. exercise your long calls).  after that, they reserve the right to liquidate positions (one hopes they would realize to exercise the previously paired long calls, but there’s no guarantee).

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:34 PM #129

    Mav - 19 August 2012 07:33 PM

    Confirms?

    I didn’t see a confirmation.  I saw something very close to one.

    But as far as trend, nothing suggests AAPL is tapering off anytime soon.  I wanted to see if AAPL would break 647 in the final minutes.  It did and the volume seemed to be there.

    Yep, confirms!  I saw it late last night.  So unless it’s a trap…  Working on charts now…

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:37 PM #130

    Are we talking MACD-h?  The standard setting showed
    -0.17, which isn’t quite there.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 19 August 2012 04:43 PM #131

    Mav - 19 August 2012 07:37 PM

    Are we talking MACD-h?  The standard setting showed
    -0.17, which isn’t quite there.

    This one:  :-D

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:53 PM #132

    Mav - 19 August 2012 07:37 PM

    Are we talking MACD-h?  The standard setting showed
    -0.17, which isn’t quite there.

    Yes, MACD-h.  Are you looking at the weekly chart?  For standard setting, I’ve got .106.  Still only a smidge…but the more sensitive setting are showing a bit more.

    I’ll check with another program.  Sometimes, Stockcharts.com is off…

    EDIT: MotiveWave says .90, which is annoying because they should all say the same damn thing with the same settings!!

    EDIT2: and freestockcharts.com says what you have: -0.17 !!

    #$%^&!!  Is it too much to ask for ACCURATE DATA?!?!?!?!

    [ Edited: 19 August 2012 04:59 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 04:54 PM #133

    LOL, Mercel!!! :D

         
  • Posted: 19 August 2012 04:59 PM #134

    Mav - 19 August 2012 07:33 PM

    Confirms?

    I didn’t see a confirmation.  I saw something very close to one.

    But as far as trend, nothing suggests AAPL is tapering off anytime soon.  I wanted to see if AAPL would break 647 in the final minutes.  It did and the volume seemed to be there.

    I can confirm the uptrend. My stock account is at all time high. It’s 95% AAPL. AAPL is going up. No chart needed.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 19 August 2012 05:00 PM #135

    AT, with all due respect: shut up! raspberry