Weekend Updates

  • Posted: 17 August 2012 07:03 PM #16

    rutgersguy92 - 17 August 2012 09:08 PM

    Great day. But what happens going forward?

    I know Andy Zaky went short on both SPY and QQQ on Thursday, and Redler has been doing a lot of selling as the price went higher today. Just wondering what Monday may bring.

    You should always sell into strength, but the melt-up today disproved that theory, at least for today. A lot of folks were afraid of being left at the station - myself included, so I did a Joe Terranova and bought high and sold higher - and this fed into the surge. With two days before the next trading day, who knows what?s going to happen over the week-end to affect the markets on Monday, but we shall see.

    Congrats and good luck to the longs.

    I can’t tell you what will happen Monday or through next week.  I can tell you how the market has reacted to AAPL the last three years, and how its doing this year in comparison.

    Looking at trading action for 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011 in the weeks following July earnings, on average, AAPL has declined, from August 6 through August 17, 2.01% (Week over Week) each day.

    This year AAPL has gained (on average) 3.07% (Week over Week) each day sinceAugust 6.

    The 5 day average Week over Week move by AAPL, prior to today’s sky rocket, was 1.88%.  The lowest daily Week over Week move in the last 13 sessions was 1.17%.

    I’m using that low move as a guide to where I think AAPL will be next Friday (intraday low ~$646.28).

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 07:06 PM #17

    TanToday - 17 August 2012 09:09 PM

    My personal take….

    ... the WS~BORG, have been informed of a pending stock split.

    Of course, they would NEVER EVER act on insider ruminations….would they?

    Stocks splits are a zero sum game.  I have more faith in the markets believing that Apple is going to prevail over Samsung, and that THAT will secure Apple’s leadership (and growing share) worldwide.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:09 PM #18

    roni - 17 August 2012 09:58 PM

    I am also going to pick up a bottle of special wine on the way home.

    Mad-Dog or Thunderbird

    choices, choices smile

    Boonsfarm Wild Mountain? smile  (Yes.  I’m old)

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:10 PM #19

    Wow, what a way to end the week.  Taking into account all withdrawals this year, I’m at an ATH again.  Didn’t think I’d be saying that in August of all months!!  80% in, 20% cash position.

    Still on track to be at 2.5x of current portfolio value by January, which is insane.

    And this weekend, Vegas baby!

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:10 PM #20

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 09:44 PM

    John, can you do spreads in your account?  It would ease my pain (sob! sniff!) to vicariously experience the joys of your OCT’12 650s should you consider selling a higher strike as a nice compromise between upside and downside risk. smile

    Yup, we got that going for us!

    Now since you were such an oracle re the original ‘call’ how about laying some juju on me re what strike would play nice with the 650’s.  :oh:

    Just a guess but I’d think a strike with a premium about 1/2 the call??? No laughing now! 

      cheers
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:11 PM #21

    rezonate - 17 August 2012 09:46 PM

    A fun article to skim about the rumored cable, with pictures: http://itsmorereal.tumblr.com/post/29480903669/the-foolproof-dock-connector

    Great read.  Just like Apple to do something like this.

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:13 PM #22

    johnG - 17 August 2012 10:10 PM

    Yup, we got that going for us!

    Total consciousness on our deathbed?

    Signature

    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 07:14 PM #23

    incorrigible - 17 August 2012 10:09 PM
    roni - 17 August 2012 09:58 PM

    I am also going to pick up a bottle of special wine on the way home.

    Mad-Dog or Thunderbird

    choices, choices smile

    Boonsfarm Wild Mountain? smile  (Yes.  I’m old)

    Me too

    What’s the word?
    Thunderbird.
    What’s the price?
    Two bits twice.

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 07:15 PM #24

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 09:18 PM

    Me, I moved everything out to APR’13 at the earliest.  I’ll be crying over my long-gone-now OCT’12 650s for an eternity, I’m sure.  But I have enough invested to enjoy upside, and enough cash to know I can always turn future lemons into lemonade.

    Last January I put a half dozen accounts I manage for friends and relatives, into OCT $630/$645 Bull Call Spreads at 85?.  They are currently trading at $8.45 with another $6.55 left in them.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 07:21 PM #25

    I sold my (30) Oct 650 calls that I bought yesterday for $20 too soon today.  I made some money (it was impossible not to as the price never dipped belong $21.60) but I could have made a lot more.  My gut was telling me to hold on to the calls b/c of all the good stuff ahead of us;  but I realize there is a lot of risk in unhedged options that expire in a couple of months and my gut has certainly been wrong before.  I certainly did not think the pps would rise so much on a Friday on strong volume.  Oh well - that’s the way the ball bounces.  I will look to get some futher out options in the near future.

    I do think that we are going higher at least for a little while.  Even though we have climbed pretty exponentially lately - we are simply back to around the ATM of April, with big new developments on the horizon. 

    IMO what could hurt us is in the short term are:  1) a bad jury verdict in the case against Samsung
    and 2) bad September earnings.  I would think the stock will bounce back quickly given the new products being rolled out.

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:21 PM #26

    incorrigible - 17 August 2012 10:13 PM
    johnG - 17 August 2012 10:10 PM

    Yup, we got that going for us!

    Total consciousness on our deathbed?

    Gunga Galunga to all

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:26 PM #27

    johnG - 17 August 2012 10:10 PM

    Now since you were such an oracle re the original ‘call’ how about laying some juju on me re what strike would play nice with the 650’s.  :oh:

    Just a guess but I’d think a strike with a premium about 1/2 the call??? No laughing now!

    I’d favor a 20-width spread here (650/670).  Pull out your original investment plus a nice profit and redeploy that capital to further expirations at a time that suits your risk profile. smile

    [ Edited: 17 August 2012 07:28 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:28 PM #28

    Gregg Thurman - 17 August 2012 10:15 PM
    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 09:18 PM

    Me, I moved everything out to APR’13 at the earliest.  I’ll be crying over my long-gone-now OCT’12 650s for an eternity, I’m sure.  But I have enough invested to enjoy upside, and enough cash to know I can always turn future lemons into lemonade.

    Last January I put a half dozen accounts I manage for friends and relatives, into OCT $630/$645 Bull Call Spreads at 85?.  They are currently trading at $8.45 with another $6.55 left in them.

    You’re going to be a very popular guy. smile

         
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    Posted: 17 August 2012 07:49 PM #29

    lovemyipad - 17 August 2012 10:26 PM
    johnG - 17 August 2012 10:10 PM

    Now since you were such an oracle re the original ‘call’ how about laying some juju on me re what strike would play nice with the 650’s.  :oh:

    Just a guess but I’d think a strike with a premium about 1/2 the call??? No laughing now!

    I’d favor a 20-width spread here…pull out your original investment plus a nice profit and redeploy that capital to further expirations at a time that suits your risk profile. smile

    Sounds like a good plan. I was thinking of redeploying those funds to Feb/Apr anyway. Good opportunity to try a spread.

      cheers
        johnG

         
  • Posted: 17 August 2012 07:52 PM #30

    rezonate - 17 August 2012 09:46 PM

    So a couple things. First, mint juleps.

    Second, my read is “buy the rumor” in anticipation of “sell the news”. There are no credible rumors and yet all kinds of not-so-crazy rumors lately: iTV, iPad Air/Nano/whathaveyou, iPhone 5, 13"MBPr, new iMac. So buy buy buy in now for whichever-all rumor finally turns true and then sell sell sell.

    Lastly, was discussing AAPL over coffee with a complete tech layman, who said “Have you heard about the new Apple iPhone dock connector? If they release that the stock will tank, unless Apple also releases adapters.” the person is smart but did not convince me. Define “tank”: 10%? 20%? Over a *cable*? Just not seeing it. So just another tiny data point to chew on.

    A fun article to skim about the rumored cable, with pictures: http://itsmorereal.tumblr.com/post/29480903669/the-foolproof-dock-connector

    If the person you were talking to is in fact a real person and is alive and has a brain,  I wouldn’t pay much attention to them going forward.