AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 20 August 2012 01:40 AM #16

    doubledraw - 20 August 2012 04:38 AM

    Checking in to see what the AFB crowd thought of this new ATH and where we are headed.  Congrats to everybody who is at a new ATH in their accounts!

    And best wishes for the rest of us not so awesome, if you like.

    Signed,

    Fearless/Shameless Representative of the Silent Superminority (of One?)

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 01:41 AM #17

    Red Shirted Ensign - 20 August 2012 04:23 AM

    http://aaplpain.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Screen-Shot-2012-08-19-at-6.44.10-PM.png


    Travis has the weekly up…..quite a mountain at 650…but beyond that….

    Interesting - have you seen an opex chart like that before this early in the week?

    I dont follow it that closely, but might we see a covering rally by those 650 writers if we break 650 today?

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 01:43 AM #18

    About those weeklies - still pretty fluid situation, is it not? 

    If anyone tracks this closely (I don’t), the perspective is appreciated.  Also of note, AAPL didn’t just gap up Friday, it gapped up and blasted off fairly nicely by AAPL standards - 638-648 intraday range.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 20 August 2012 01:44 AM #19

    Mav - 20 August 2012 04:40 AM
    doubledraw - 20 August 2012 04:38 AM

    Checking in to see what the AFB crowd thought of this new ATH and where we are headed.  Congrats to everybody who is at a new ATH in their accounts!

    And best wishes for the rest of us not so awesome, if you like.

    Signed,

    Fearless/Shameless Representative of the Silent Superminority (of One?)

    Yes, Mav, best wishes to you too!  In all seriousness, I lurk on this board a lot and have learned a lot from your posts as well as ilovemyipad, Gregg, mercel, RES and all the others.  Best of luck to you.

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 02:14 AM #20

    By Avi Gilburt
    Once Apple broke out over the 588 level to invalidate a bearish pattern, I set our target for the 636-645 region, with 645 being the point where c=a. This past week we hit our target, and Apple has since exceeded our initial target and made a new all-time high. So, does the pattern now call for higher levels?

    The answer is most likely, yes! As you can see from the attached chart, Apple AAPL +1.85%  ?seems to be in the same pattern we are seeing in the larger equity market. We are coming towards the end of a 5th wave in a 5 wave diagonal pattern. But, before a full 5 waves are in, it seems we are only completed wave iii of this c-wave. The target levels for this move are the 631 region (1.382 extension of waves i and ii) and the 657 region (1.618 extension of wave i and ii). The 657 level is also the point where c=1.236*a, which makes that level a strong attraction, as well as a strong resistance, level.

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    Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it…  ? Tao Te Ching

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 02:24 AM #21

    jjjz - 20 August 2012 05:14 AM

    By Avi Gilburt
    Once Apple broke out over the 588 level to invalidate a bearish pattern, I set our target for the 636-645 region, with 645 being the point where c=a. This past week we hit our target, and Apple has since exceeded our initial target and made a new all-time high. So, does the pattern now call for higher levels?

    The answer is most likely, yes! As you can see from the attached chart, Apple AAPL +1.85%  ?seems to be in the same pattern we are seeing in the larger equity market. We are coming towards the end of a 5th wave in a 5 wave diagonal pattern. But, before a full 5 waves are in, it seems we are only completed wave iii of this c-wave. The target levels for this move are the 631 region (1.382 extension of waves i and ii) and the 657 region (1.618 extension of wave i and ii). The 657 level is also the point where c=1.236*a, which makes that level a strong attraction, as well as a strong resistance, level.

    I think that’s a typo with the targets.  1.382 extension is 651-ish.

    FWIW, big thumbs-up from me on Avi Gilburt!!  I’ve been in his trading group for two months now, and he’s awesome! 

    No interest in getting into an EW debate (read: yeah, yeah, blah, blah!), so just telling my own experience here…  When Mace deserted us :cry: , I had to find a new EW teacher…no easy task with AAPL since everyone else sucks, and Mace was the only one I trusted to know enough about AAPL and EW.  Actually found Avi through an article that AT linked—ha!!  To my surprise and delight, Avi didn’t suck…in fact, I thought even Mace would approve!  So I tried his group for two weeks, loved it, joined.

    Definitely not for everyone…and probably not for most here wink...but I love it!! smile

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 02:29 AM #22

    P.S. Mercel, make sure you check out my EW chart!!!!!! raspberry

         
  • Posted: 20 August 2012 02:31 AM #23

    Red Shirted Ensign - 20 August 2012 04:23 AM

    http://aaplpain.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Screen-Shot-2012-08-19-at-6.44.10-PM.png


    Travis has the weekly up…..quite a mountain at 650…but beyond that….

    I’m looking to add April 650s and 700s in the coming week if AAPL trades this side of $65 (and weekly OPEX suggests it will).  After that, it’s going to take some Euro news to derail the anticipation of the Sept. 12 event.  If we go from here, then I’ve still got a good seat with a view.

         
  • Posted: 20 August 2012 02:34 AM #24

    lovemyipad - 20 August 2012 05:29 AM

    P.S. Mercel, make sure you check out my EW chart!!!!!! raspberry

    Funny.  EW is the comic page for the stock market.  Name me ONE TIME when EW has predicted anything more than a giggle and I’ll retract my skepticism.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 02:39 AM #25

    Mercel - 20 August 2012 05:34 AM
    lovemyipad - 20 August 2012 05:29 AM

    P.S. Mercel, make sure you check out my EW chart!!!!!! raspberry

    Funny.  EW is the comic page for the stock market.  Name me ONE TIME when EW has predicted anything more than a giggle and I’ll retract my skepticism.  :wink:

    I’ll tell you, but you won’t believe me because I didn’t tell you in advance.  Avi has nailed every move with SPX futures for the past month that I’ve been following the ES.  He tracks that much closer than AAPL, but his AAPL targets have all been dead-on.  When AAPL broke over 587 after earnings, he said next stop 636-646.  I didn’t believe him.

         
  • Posted: 20 August 2012 02:43 AM #26

    lovemyipad - 20 August 2012 05:24 AM
    jjjz - 20 August 2012 05:14 AM

    By Avi Gilburt
    Once Apple broke out over the 588 level to invalidate a bearish pattern, I set our target for the 636-645 region, with 645 being the point where c=a. This past week we hit our target, and Apple has since exceeded our initial target and made a new all-time high. So, does the pattern now call for higher levels?

    The answer is most likely, yes! As you can see from the attached chart, Apple AAPL +1.85%  ?seems to be in the same pattern we are seeing in the larger equity market. We are coming towards the end of a 5th wave in a 5 wave diagonal pattern. But, before a full 5 waves are in, it seems we are only completed wave iii of this c-wave. The target levels for this move are the 631 region (1.382 extension of waves i and ii) and the 657 region (1.618 extension of wave i and ii). The 657 level is also the point where c=1.236*a, which makes that level a strong attraction, as well as a strong resistance, level.

    I think that’s a typo with the targets.  1.382 extension is 651-ish.

    FWIW, big thumbs-up from me on Avi Gilburt!!  I’ve been in his trading group for two months now, and he’s awesome! 

    No interest in getting into an EW debate (read: yeah, yeah, blah, blah!), so just telling my own experience here…  When Mace deserted us :cry: , I had to find a new EW teacher…no easy task with AAPL since everyone else sucks, and Mace was the only one I trusted to know enough about AAPL and
    EW.  Actually found Avi through an article that AT linked—ha!!  To my surprise and delight, Avi didn’t
    suck…in fact, I thought even Mace would approve!  So I tried his group for two weeks, loved it, joined.

    Definitely not for everyone…and probably not for most here wink...but I love it!! smile

    Ignore me at your own risk. Ha.

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 02:46 AM #27

    AT, I do owe you for the link to Avi’s article!!  The one GEM you brought to the charts thread…remember how astounded I was? smile

         
  • Posted: 20 August 2012 02:56 AM #28

    lovemyipad - 20 August 2012 05:39 AM
    Mercel - 20 August 2012 05:34 AM
    lovemyipad - 20 August 2012 05:29 AM

    P.S. Mercel, make sure you check out my EW chart!!!!!! raspberry

    Funny.  EW is the comic page for the stock market.  Name me ONE TIME when EW has predicted anything more than a giggle and I’ll retract my skepticism.  :wink:

    I’ll tell you, but you won’t believe me because I didn’t tell you in advance.  Avi has nailed every move with SPX futures for the past month that I’ve been following the ES.  He tracks that much closer than AAPL, but his AAPL targets have all been dead-on.  When AAPL broke over 587 after earnings, he said next stop 636-646.  I didn’t believe him.

    Mace probably had the best understanding of EW of anyone on AFB, and he was quite skeptical.  Given how long the EW thread has been running—and the lack of results—a month’s worth of accuracy is akin to winning a coin flip with a two-sided coin. 

    Let’s talk in six months though…. LOL

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 02:56 AM #29

    iPad, did he call the 644 >> 530 retrace reasonably well?

    I still think EW is astrology of sorts, HUGELY subject to subjectivity error, but just curious.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 20 August 2012 03:03 AM #30

    Mercel - 20 August 2012 05:56 AM

    Mace probably had the best understanding of EW of anyone on AFB, and he was quite skeptical.  Given how long the EW thread has been running—and the lack of results—a month’s worth of accuracy is akin to winning a coin flip with a two-sided coin. 

    Let’s talk in six months though…. LOL

    I don’t recall Mace being at all skeptical.  He made *several* accurate projections.