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Mace probably had the best understanding of EW of anyone on AFB, and he was quite skeptical. Given how long the EW thread has been running—and the lack of results—a month’s worth of accuracy is akin to winning a coin flip with a two-sided coin.
Let’s talk in six months though….
I don’t recall Mace being at all skeptical. He made *several* accurate projections.
He saw something in it to post about it, but I don’t recall any projections he made that qualified as “tradeable.” He was quite circumspect overall. But I’ll defer to your characterization over the most recent year because I largely stopped looking.
I’ll keep an open mind for a new and improved version of it, however, and I’ll calendar this for a 6 month review. I’d like to see some accountability—even American Bulls does that.
[ Edited: 20 August 2012 10:27 AM by ByeTMO ] -
iPad, did he call the 644 >> 530 retrace reasonably well?
I still think EW is astrology of sorts, HUGELY subject to subjectivity error, but just curious.
Mav, he did. I agree the wave labelling is subjective (and hard as hell!), but the Fibs are…well, Fibs! And that’s the most important takeaway for me…Fibs provide clues for identifying waves, so I’m getting a lot of good practice slicing and dicing, which works very well with good old-fashioned TA.
I think the biggest problem with “forecasts” and “forecasters” is that everyone always wants/expects a definitive answer—this WILL happen by xxx date. For me, it’s always if/then.
IMHO, an actionable forecast ALWAYS has an if/then scenario. Either support/resistance breaks or it doesn’t. If outcome 1 happens, THEN expect outcome 2 to follow.
[ Edited: 20 August 2012 03:41 AM by lovemyipad ] -
iPad, amusingly enough I’m in agreement with Mercel on this one. There won’t be any Elliott Wave converts here for the foreseeable future (though I bet no one saw me becoming a student of technicals to any degree, huh?
), but I won’t dismiss it out of hand as long as the source is _objective_ about his/her subject, and no one tries to force it down our proverbial gullets. :D Oh, right…
I will always disagree with guys like Gilburt to the extent that fundamentals get no consideration, but of course, EW is a technical-ish world unto itself so I wouldn’t expect that kinda combination of disciplines anyway.
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
http://aaplpain.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Screen-Shot-2012-08-19-at-6.44.10-PM.png
Travis has the weekly up…..quite a mountain at 650…but beyond that….‘’
Bumping the post to a fresher page for discussion.
Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
http://aaplpain.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Screen-Shot-2012-08-19-at-6.44.10-PM.png
Travis has the weekly up…..quite a mountain at 650…but beyond that….‘’
Bumping the post to a fresher page for discussion.
8K calls are nothing. IIRC, we just vanquished ~20K of them on Friday.
If we don’t close above 650 this week, it won’t be options causing it.
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Wow. ToS is reporting the first sale today, 200 shares @ 651.51, and ask currently ~@654. It does seem we’ll see 700 before October. As insane as that may seem. Maybe 800 for January?
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Tactically speaking, I’m just looking at the early premarket trades, and liking what I see :cool:
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The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
Phoebear611
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Does anyone know what happened to Mace? Has anyone tried to reach out to him through email. He was always so insightful—I hope all is well.
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Keep Calm and Carry On
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Phoebear611
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Markets are coming in - AAPL was up more than +5 in PM—now only up a little more than 1 pt. The whole market is a bit soft here.
Flat now
[ Edited: 20 August 2012 08:36 AM by Phoebear611 ]Signature
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Phoebear611
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Anybody awake out there?
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Keep Calm and Carry On
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Anybody awake out there?
I’m always awake. I hate the long waits between me waking up and market open. Going to get some yoga in though.
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Phoebear611
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Anybody awake out there?
I’m always awake. I hate the long waits between me waking up and market open. Going to get some yoga in though.
Somehow I knew it would be you responding. Think I will get on my elliptical for a bit…too long till market open. Enjoy your yoga!
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Good morning everyone.
Like Mercel I am considering opening an April $700 position, already have some $650’s.
Might wait a bit, though. I have enough exposure to be happy
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I am logged out of my iPad and my password won’t work.
Luckily I am auto logged on the iPhone and the iMac. Once I lose these two like Mace and DawnTreader, will slowly fade into sunset with my millions.
Bought this morning shares at 651.30. Don’t see much of a pullback to justify attempting to time bottom.
Waiting for my AT account to settle my funds and will buy another LEAP on Thursday.
I think dividend and stock split has moved us in the last two weeks.
When that split comes next year, expect us to double in 18 months post split.
By the way there is a great article I will post the link to that truly explains Apple long term potential.
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doubledraw
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anyone know when the next dividend ex date will be? I haven’t seen anything about this anywhere, just the August date.
