iPhone 5 Sept Launch Impact on Guidance

  • Posted: 22 August 2012 11:08 PM

    So the rumors seem to be getting louder that we will see a ~Sept 21 launch. However, the clear issue that I havent seen discussed is that Apple would have to increase guidance if it launches this quarter. In the past 6-7 years, Apple has never changed guidance mid quarter, so what do people think? I see three possibilities:

    1) Sept 21 launch, Apple announces increased guidance
    2) No launch till Oct 1 or later
    3) Sept 21 launch, Apple just says screw Wall St and blows out the insanely low guidance.

    I’ve been away a few weeks, sorry if this has been discussed, but I didn’t see it anywhere.

         
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    Posted: 22 August 2012 11:18 PM #1

    Apple will never increase guidance.  Blowouts of 45 % ?  We came to expect those and it cost some of us.  I suspect most of us will rein in some of our estimates in FY Q3 and Q4 from now on.

         
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    Posted: 22 August 2012 11:23 PM #2

    WillyPitt - 23 August 2012 02:08 AM

    So the rumors seem to be getting louder that we will see a ~Sept 21 launch. However, the clear issue that I havent seen discussed is that Apple would have to increase guidance if it launches this quarter. In the past 6-7 years, Apple has never changed guidance mid quarter, so what do people think? I see three possibilities:

    1) Sept 21 launch, Apple announces increased guidance
    2) No launch till Oct 1 or later
    3) Sept 21 launch, Apple just says screw Wall St and blows out the insanely low guidance.

    I’ve been away a few weeks, sorry if this has been discussed, but I didn’t see it anywhere.

    Apple cannot know for certain on September 21st that they will sell any additional phones, or that those sold won’t all be returned.

    Suddenly, eight days later, the quarter is over.

    They will not increase guidance or say a word, nor should they.

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  • Posted: 22 August 2012 11:28 PM #3

    Red Shirted Ensign - 23 August 2012 02:23 AM
    WillyPitt - 23 August 2012 02:08 AM

    So the rumors seem to be getting louder that we will see a ~Sept 21 launch. However, the clear issue that I havent seen discussed is that Apple would have to increase guidance if it launches this quarter. In the past 6-7 years, Apple has never changed guidance mid quarter, so what do people think? I see three possibilities:

    1) Sept 21 launch, Apple announces increased guidance
    2) No launch till Oct 1 or later
    3) Sept 21 launch, Apple just says screw Wall St and blows out the insanely low guidance.

    I’ve been away a few weeks, sorry if this has been discussed, but I didn’t see it anywhere.

    Apple cannot know for certain on September 21st that they will sell any additional phones, or that those sold won’t all be returned.

    Suddenly, eight days later, the quarter is over.

    They will not increase guidance or say a word, nor should they.

    +11,000% (I should be able to get away with this at least once for every time the claim of 11,000% gains over the last 3 years is made).

         
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    Posted: 22 August 2012 11:33 PM #4

    So ‘ole bald-headed one :-D , how many will they sell in 8 days? Last year they sold 4M In the first weekend, I think to about 6 countries.

         
  • Posted: 22 August 2012 11:36 PM #5

    ChasMac77 - 23 August 2012 02:33 AM

    So ‘ole bald-headed one :-D , how many will they sell in 8 days? Last year they sold 4M In the first weekend, I think to about 6 countries.

    I’m not old or bald headed but I’m going with 10 million. Yeah, I’m being conservative. I think demand is there for a lot more but production can’t be that much higher…or can it?

         
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    Posted: 22 August 2012 11:52 PM #6

    Apple will probably say more than 7 million in 3-4 days.  And actually sell around 10M or more before fiscal Q4 ends, ideally.

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  • Posted: 23 August 2012 12:00 AM #7

    They will sell as many as they can make. That’s not debatable.

         
  • Posted: 23 August 2012 12:07 AM #8

    Red Shirted Ensign - 23 August 2012 02:23 AM

    Apple cannot know for certain on September 21st that they will sell any additional phones, or that those sold won’t all be returned.

    Suddenly, eight days later, the quarter is over.

    They will not increase guidance or say a word, nor should they.

    Come on, by that standard, they can’t know for certain they would have sold any iPhone 4S’s at all this quarter or that 10 million wouldnt be returned, or that a natural disaster wouldnt wipe out all of the Apple stores in the world, so their guidance should have only been what was sold already in the Q before they released earnings.

         
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    Posted: 23 August 2012 12:13 AM #9

    Launches are rife with uncertainty.

    They won’t change guidance.

    If they did, we’ll all wish we’d had more AAPL shares or options the day of the announcement…

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    Posted: 23 August 2012 12:25 AM #10

    WillyPitt - 23 August 2012 03:07 AM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 23 August 2012 02:23 AM

    Apple cannot know for certain on September 21st that they will sell any additional phones, or that those sold won’t all be returned.

    Suddenly, eight days later, the quarter is over.

    They will not increase guidance or say a word, nor should they.

    Come on, by that standard, they can’t know for certain they would have sold any iPhone 4S’s at all this quarter or that 10 million wouldnt be returned, or that a natural disaster wouldnt wipe out all of the Apple stores in the world, so their guidance should have only been what was sold already in the Q before they released earnings.

    Nope, that is not how it works…...as Mav says, launches are tricky.  Would you have them increase guidance on Monday, the 23rd?  Tuesday, the 24th when the first weekend sales of 5 million is confirmed?  This increases EPS by maybe a dime from whatever the run rate was to that point, which might be lower than the forecast run rate due to drop off in iPhone 4s sales awaiting the new phone.  Then we have costs of the rollout, which have to be netted against forecast…..got those worldwide numbers by Wednesday….oops quarter is over.  Don’t yet know the total costs of the last two weeks operations yet…...and all those darn iPad Air costs to account for.

    Nope, balance the books and then, well…we are in the quiet period.  Just wait.

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  • Posted: 23 August 2012 01:02 AM #11

    Mav - 23 August 2012 03:13 AM

    Launches are rife with uncertainty.

    They won’t change guidance.

    If they did, we’ll all wish we’d had more AAPL shares or options the day of the announcement…

    Over the number of quarters many of us have followed Apple quarterly reports, it’s fairly apparent that Apple will guide big with new product only AFTER a product has been launched (in other words, inside the prior quarter just ended).

         
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    Posted: 23 August 2012 01:05 AM #12

    Fiscal Q1 2013 guidance should be decent. wink

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  • Posted: 23 August 2012 01:09 AM #13

    Mav - 23 August 2012 04:05 AM

    Fiscal Q1 2013 guidance should be decent. wink

    That’s why I’ve posted this before, that no one will care about actual FQ4 2012 EPS when they hear FQ1 2013 guidance.  “Decent” will be the understatement of the year for Apple (and that says something!).

         
  • Posted: 23 August 2012 01:13 AM #14

    WillyPitt - 23 August 2012 03:07 AM
    Red Shirted Ensign - 23 August 2012 02:23 AM

    Apple cannot know for certain on September 21st that they will sell any additional phones, or that those sold won’t all be returned.

    Suddenly, eight days later, the quarter is over.

    They will not increase guidance or say a word, nor should they.

    Come on, by that standard, they can’t know for certain they would have sold any iPhone 4S’s at all this quarter or that 10 million wouldnt be returned, or that a natural disaster wouldnt wipe out all of the Apple stores in the world, so their guidance should have only been what was sold already in the Q before they released earnings.

    Apple never changes guidance.  Never.  Since I began following Apple (late 1990s) Apple has ‘warned’ once.  I think that was just before Oct earnings CY 2000.

    As conservative as Apple guides, and the frequency it beats estimates by a handsome amount, I’d be surprised if anyone didn’t expect anything different.

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  • Posted: 23 August 2012 01:16 AM #15

    Mav - 23 August 2012 04:05 AM

    Fiscal Q1 2013 guidance should be decent. wink

    I’m modeling FQ1/2013 guidance at $12.70 (with actual results at $19.00).

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