iPhone 5 Sept Launch Impact on Guidance

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    Posted: 23 August 2012 01:33 AM #16

    Gregg Thurman - 23 August 2012 04:16 AM
    Mav - 23 August 2012 04:05 AM

    Fiscal Q1 2013 guidance should be decent. wink

    I’m modeling FQ1/2013 guidance at $12.70 (with actual results at $19.00).

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  • Posted: 23 August 2012 02:03 AM #17

    Gregg Thurman - 23 August 2012 04:16 AM
    Mav - 23 August 2012 04:05 AM

    Fiscal Q1 2013 guidance should be decent. wink

    I’m modeling FQ1/2013 guidance at $12.70 (with actual results at $19.00).

    $20.00 EPS looks pretty darn easy to me right now.

         
  • Posted: 23 August 2012 09:03 AM #18

    adamthompson32 - 23 August 2012 05:03 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 23 August 2012 04:16 AM
    Mav - 23 August 2012 04:05 AM

    Fiscal Q1 2013 guidance should be decent. wink

    I’m modeling FQ1/2013 guidance at $12.70 (with actual results at $19.00).

    $20.00 EPS looks pretty darn easy to me right now.

    Even after July’s miss, you’re undaunted.  But I would be hard pressed to characterize $20 EPS as “easy.”

         
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    Posted: 23 August 2012 05:09 PM #19

    I would call it a galactic-scale quarter.  The single most profitable fiscal quarter in the history of business, and maybe never to be repeated (except maybe by Apple itself) :oh:

    Remember, growth rates slow, not because of some misapplied LOLN, because of business realities. 

    $20 EPS isn’t impossible.  But run the numbers very carefully rather than just throwing out YOY growth rate extrapolations.

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    Posted: 23 August 2012 08:02 PM #20

    Gregg Thurman - 23 August 2012 04:16 AM
    Mav - 23 August 2012 04:05 AM

    Fiscal Q1 2013 guidance should be decent. wink

    I’m modeling FQ1/2013 guidance at $12.70 (with actual results at $19.00).

    I don’t model guidance, but for investing I am modeling EPS for
    FQ4 12 @ 8.21,
    FQ1 13 @ 16.6445 and
    FQ2 13 @ 14.76

    How I came to these very conservative numbers is FQ4 is based on the previous quarters beat (re: 8.68 guidance and 9.32 actual, if I use YOY it becomes 9.8).  Both FQ1 & 2 are based on a 20% beat over the previous YOY.  From here on out, since I plan on only buying Apr and later I don’t have to concern myself with whether FQ1 13 or FQ2 13s wil have one monster quarter and one one great quarter.

    I am confident that AAPL will beat my numbers, very probably by a wide margin, but I am conservative and willing to accept lower rates of return.  Even at that, at a P/E of 14.5 AAPL in FQ2 13 should be @ $709.  Heck, right now AAPLs P/E is 15.58, at this number AAPL would be over $758 in FQ2 13.

    That’s not to say I won’t make a smaller trade based on much higher numbers than shown above, but it won’t amount to much money at risk.

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    Posted: 23 August 2012 08:19 PM #21

    My Q1 is a bit higher and Q2 a bit lower.  The same overall at this early stage.