Weekend Updates - Archive

  • Posted: 25 August 2012 02:24 AM #46

    greedyn00b - 25 August 2012 04:00 AM

    You have to understand, IV is just a measure of investor sentiment.

    EDIT: It is merely what volatility would justify the current options prices,  so roughly speaking it reflects investors’ expectations about short term future volatility.

    EDIT 2: It figures, I get up and walk away from the computer and the phrasing I was searching for finally came to me: IV is not an external force acting on options prices, and it is misleading to think of it that way.

    I like that.

    I would also add, IV is a way of measuring how much people are willing to pay for the time value of an option.

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2012 03:39 AM #47

    jkao - 25 August 2012 05:24 AM
    greedyn00b - 25 August 2012 04:00 AM

    You have to understand, IV is just a measure of investor sentiment.

    EDIT: It is merely what volatility would justify the current options prices,  so roughly speaking it reflects investors’ expectations about short term future volatility.

    EDIT 2: It figures, I get up and walk away from the computer and the phrasing I was searching for finally came to me: IV is not an external force acting on options prices, and it is misleading to think of it that way.

    I like that.

    I would also add, IV is a way of measuring how much people are willing to pay for the time value of an option.

    So IV got crushed after the last earnings because the stock tanked and nobody thought it was going anywhere for a while? If the sentiment is that the stock is going to run up for a while, IV should go up?

    So considering there are so many catalysts on the horizon, I believe IV is on it’s way up.

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    Posted: 25 August 2012 04:01 AM #48

    And why did last year’s iPhone release run-up justify an IV approaching 55 whereas this year, we’re sitting in the high 20s? If anything, this year’s release is more significant and potentially a larger driver of the stock price. Or is it lower because expectations for this quarter’s earnings are muted? Or because we’re just not close enough to earnings and EPS changes are the biggest driver of stock price appreciation?

    Questions, questions, questions… smile

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    Posted: 25 August 2012 04:08 AM #49

    Honestly?  Don’t overthink it, just go with it. 

    CBOE iVolatility services help provide some clues.  Now VXAPL _has_ been as high as almost 40 at points this year IIRC, maybe higher, but accepting lower AAPL IV as a new normal for now might help.

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  • Posted: 25 August 2012 07:09 AM #50

    cambrose - 25 August 2012 07:01 AM

    And why did last year’s iPhone release run-up justify an IV approaching 55 whereas this year, we’re sitting in the high 20s? If anything, this year’s release is more significant and potentially a larger driver of the stock price. Or is it lower because expectations for this quarter’s earnings are muted? Or because we’re just not close enough to earnings and EPS changes are the biggest driver of stock price appreciation?

    Questions, questions, questions… smile

    Last year the economic environment was much less stable and the health of Steve Jobs was unknown.  Add that to the fact that no one knew if the iPhone was going to be a new model or spec upgrade.  Everyone has a good idea about the release this year creating less volatility.

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2012 08:00 AM #51

    I have to laugh at some of the articles saying that this verdict is damning for the consumer because it won’t provide choices.  Are people serious?  I think it is great for the consumer! It will now provide diversity of design and product. I know I don’t need to convince others on this board about the argument, but I’m just wondering what goes through a person’s head when they make statements like that.

    Congrats to the longs! And many of us all along thought that AAPL was going to be somewhat sideways to down until the September event….and then we got news in August… BAM….will be getting news in Sept…..BAM…news in October….BAM.  It’s going to be a great fall and year end…BAM BAM.  :-D
    Our fruit company never fails to surprise even the most seasoned veterans in the name.

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  • Posted: 25 August 2012 08:11 AM #52

    Tim Cook, classy at every turn, comments on the verdict:

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/08/25/apple_chief_tim_cook_stresses_values_innovation_in_post_trial_remarks.html

    And here is another good article - about going after AMZN and then GOOG next:
    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/08/25/will-apple-now-sue-google/

    [ Edited: 25 August 2012 09:04 AM by Phoebear611 ]

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  • Posted: 25 August 2012 11:45 AM #53

    Phoebear611 - 25 August 2012 11:00 AM

    I have to laugh at some of the articles saying that this verdict is damning for the consumer because it won’t provide choices.  Are people serious?  I think it is great for the consumer! It will now provide diversity of design and product. I know I don’t need to convince others on this board about the argument, but I’m just wondering what goes through a person’s head when they make statements like that.

    Congrats to the longs! And many of us all along thought that AAPL was going to be somewhat sideways to down until the September event….and then we got news in August… BAM….will be getting news in Sept…..BAM…news in October….BAM.  It’s going to be a great fall and year end…BAM BAM.  :-D
    Our fruit company never fails to surprise even the most seasoned veterans in the name.

    Ever since MSFT copied Apple, its like everyone accepted that Apple would be the innovator, with everyone else following and copying.  But Steve Jobs decided he would not stand by while others “rip off our IP”, and finally, after a long struggle, when a jury finally heard the evidence, they issued justice!

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2012 11:46 AM #54

    Phoebear611 - 25 August 2012 11:00 AM

    I think it is great for the consumer! It will now provide diversity of design and product.

    Damn, wish I could find it now—there was an article about exactly that a few weeks ago, with examples from other industries etc, about how tolerance of widespread copying leads to lack of diversity and a stale market…

    But, needless to say, you are right. In fact, if you look beyond Samsung, there actually is pretty good diversity of design in other Android phones, because *all* other manufacturers besides Samsung tried, within the constraints imposed by touch screens and current fashion, to make theirs look distinctive. (That comment of course only addresses the design patents, not the utility patents infringed by Android.)

    And on a slightly different tack: who are these idiots calling it a “split decision” for Apple??? Yes, Apple did not prevail on all its claims, but Samsung prevailed on none. If Samsung had prevailed on any of its infringement claims, ***THAT*** would be a split decision, because then Apple would have to negotiate with Samsung. But as it stands, Apple now holds ***ALL*** the leverage.

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2012 02:13 PM #56

    Confirmed: New iPad Mini to Debut in October, After Latest Apple iPhone?s September Bow

    http://allthingsd.com/20120825/confirmed-new-ipad-mini-will-debut-in-october-after-latest-iphones-september-bow/

         
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    Posted: 25 August 2012 02:30 PM #57

    Gridlock - 25 August 2012 05:13 PM

    Confirmed: New iPad Mini to Debut in October, After Latest Apple iPhone?s September Bow

    http://allthingsd.com/20120825/confirmed-new-ipad-mini-will-debut-in-october-after-latest-iphones-september-bow/

    All the pieces are coming together beautifully. 

    The Wall Strret gurus will have to really fire up the spreadsheets to determine a “fair and reasonable” price for this stock.  While the products surge forward on a relentless pattern of leak, announcement, excitement and rollout,  We now have a new very powerful dynamic in play, with Apple legal sweeping up afterwards on patent infringement.  This adds billions to the bottom line over time while ensuring innovation receives the true value it deserves. 

    Wall street now has to reprice the intrinsic innovative culture of Apple because it can’t just be copied anymore…...

    I think this stock deserves a trailing P/E of 17 right now. After we post $19.45 in earnings in January….we deserve a P/E of…..... LOL

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    Posted: 25 August 2012 02:46 PM #58

    I like this take on Why Apple Sues:

    http://www.cultofmac.com/187014/why-apple-sues/

         
  • Posted: 25 August 2012 03:12 PM #59

    amsk - 25 August 2012 12:48 AM

    I decided at the end of the day today to buy my first BCS - set my sights on the Jan ‘14 650/700 spread.  I bought 10 Jan ‘14 650s for $107, and decided at the last minute to hold off on the short leg - thinking the pps might go up next week.  Glad I did now!  Even though the Jan ‘14 calls won’t see the volatility of the earlier-expiring calls as a result of the great trial result—certainly the price of all calls should go up.

    Which brings me to a question for the board.  If I think (like many on this board do) that the pps is going to be going much higher from here - wouldn’t it make most sense for me to hold off on buying the short leg of the spread for a while, maybe even months or longer?

    First decide how much you want to make per Spread. Do you want a $5, $10, $20 Spread. Once you’ve decided that I’d hold off until the short Strike is selling for the same amount as the long Strike you bought.

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  • Posted: 25 August 2012 03:27 PM #60

    Despite all the immediate shock & awe of the Samsung verdict, what really fascinates me is the question of what various companies are going to do OVER TIME now that they may have to think outside the Apple box, and come up with their own ideas.

    From what I can tell, a lot of the angst in the Android camp right now is because they view their ‘cool’ phones as just a good as Apple’s. They are ‘just as good’—or close enough—because they are based on Apple designs. What happens when future phones & other products from Samsung, Google, Microsoft, etc. are based solely on the ideas those companies come up with internally? Will the assorted fanboys still hold on, or will they jump ship as the companies release ‘original’-but-lousy products? That phase hasn’t hit yet.

    Some examples of market reactions to ‘original thinking’:

    ** Samsung Galaxy Note 10.1 Review: An Embarrassing, Lazy, Arrogant Money Grab

    http://www.androidpolice.com/2012/08/21/samsung-galaxy-note-10-1-review-an-embarrassing-lazy-arrogant-money-grab/

    ** Why I?m uninstalling Windows 8

    http://www.pcgamesn.com/article/why-i-m-uninstalling-windows-8

    Landfills everywhere are clogged with products which companies put a lot of thought into, released, and fully expected to succeed. The Zune. Ford’s Edsel in the 1950’s. Thousands of computer and software products that vanished without a trace.

    It’s going to be interesting to watch as companies who’ve never really had to think for themselves now suddenly find themselves having to pay their bills with money generated from their own ideas. The paradigm has shifted, and they are about to get crushed.

    The differences between Apple and other companies are now going to start being VERY apparent. And the market isn’t stupid.