Weekend Updates

  • Posted: 08 September 2012 09:43 AM #16

    mjuarez - 08 September 2012 02:32 AM
    lovemyipad - 07 September 2012 05:27 PM

    ATH!!!!  I’ll drink to that!!!!! smile

    Same here!  I didn’t even realize we were at an all time high.

    Is anybody else getting wary up here?  I took a bit of profits off the table at the end of the day (still 85% long), since AAPL is usually weak the last few days before an announcement.  I’m sure we’ll be over $700 by January, but being able to skim off a few Ks here and there is never bad.  I’ve been on the “WHY didn’t I hedge these positions??” train way too many times now.  Buying puts or put spreads seems too aggressive for me, so I’m “hedging” by holding some cash.

    And in the “worst case”, If AAPL keeps going straight up, I’ll just open those positions again at the end of next week for a bit less profit.

    I did last week, and rebought early this week.  I may take another profit on Monday or Tuesday.  Core position is about 50% of IRAs, another 20% in other core investments leaving me 30% to trade with.

         
  • Posted: 08 September 2012 10:55 AM #17

    Mav is just doing a test of user name length - 08 September 2012 02:47 AM

    Wary?  No. 

    Maybe I should clarify.  My goal is to ALWAYS be wary.

    Also, 85% invested?  Pfft!  I’m maybe 70% invested, and that’s only as of end of day.  Ah, cash, the ultimate hedge. 

    In all seriousness, those of us who dare to trade shorter-term/more actively have to be as nimble as possible.  From riding momentum on the way up to switching to or adding short positions when the market gets too toppy (though that second part is tough).

    History is both potentially useful and utterly pointless.  “Sell in May and go away?”  For the month, “true”.  Go on vacation in August when the rest of the market does?  Oh man, I would’ve missed a hell of an opportunity to regain some lost ground if I worshipped at the altar of market dogma for _that_ one (or worse still, the sub-altars of such types as “the equity market is dead”).  The only way to navigate the markets longer-term as a trader is to develop some kind of personal market barometer along with a risk barometer.  Barometers that can change readings to both extremes on a moment’s notice, and those that are as free of bias as humanly possible.

    AAPL is affected by macro, sure, but the rally no one “likes” (read: expected?) continues.  Adjust for events (read:  most of next week LOL), see the story/fundamentals, assess your conviction, act accordingly.  I see no reason to change my Jan 14 core trade right now, though I reassess every single trading day. 

    Learning as I go opened my eyes to several risk mitigation strategies I didn’t know or couldn’t grasp just a year ago.  The account value delta isn’t necessarily gonna change much given the way today’s market moves, but stuff like raising cash, biding one’s time and making cash flow from unexpected market moves, avoiding trades with potentially catastrophic consequences, as opposed to feeling trapped in a red directional trade turns the market from something hopelessly rigged to more of a chess match where knowledge can keep you in the game.


    Graduate level post Mav.

         
  • Posted: 08 September 2012 12:18 PM #18

    TA post from SI Henry

    Still talking about a MM to $736

         
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 01:06 PM #19

    Mav is just doing a test of user name length - 08 September 2012 02:47 AM

    Wary?  No. 

    Maybe I should clarify.  My goal is to ALWAYS be wary.

    Also, 85% invested?  Pfft!  I’m maybe 70% invested, and that’s only as of end of day.  Ah, cash, the ultimate hedge. 

    In all seriousness, those of us who dare to trade shorter-term/more actively have to be as nimble as possible.  From riding momentum on the way up to switching to or adding short positions when the market gets too toppy (though that second part is tough).

    History is both potentially useful and utterly pointless.  “Sell in May and go away?”  For the month, “true”.  Go on vacation in August when the rest of the market does?  Oh man, I would’ve missed a hell of an opportunity to regain some lost ground if I worshipped at the altar of market dogma for _that_ one (or worse still, the sub-altars of such types as “the equity market is dead”).  The only way to navigate the markets longer-term as a trader is to develop some kind of personal market barometer along with a risk barometer.  Barometers that can change readings to both extremes on a moment’s notice, and those that are as free of bias as humanly possible.

    AAPL is affected by macro, sure, but the rally no one “likes” (read: expected?) continues.  Adjust for events (read:  most of next week LOL), see the story/fundamentals, assess your conviction, act accordingly.  I see no reason to change my Jan 14 core trade right now, though I reassess every single trading day. 

    Learning as I go opened my eyes to several risk mitigation strategies I didn’t know or couldn’t grasp just a year ago.  The account value delta isn’t necessarily gonna change much given the way today’s market moves, but stuff like raising cash, biding one’s time and making cash flow from unexpected market moves, avoiding trades with potentially catastrophic consequences, as opposed to feeling trapped in a red directional trade turns the market from something hopelessly rigged to more of a chess match where knowledge can keep you in the game.

    I nominate this post for the AFB Wisdom Hall of Fame.

    Mav, that was awesome—thank you!! smile

         
  • Posted: 08 September 2012 03:51 PM #20

    lovemyipad - 08 September 2012 01:06 PM
    Mav is just doing a test of user name length - 08 September 2012 02:47 AM

    Wary?  No. 

    Maybe I should clarify.  My goal is to ALWAYS be wary.

    Also, 85% invested?  Pfft!  I’m maybe 70% invested, and that’s only as of end of day.  Ah, cash, the ultimate hedge. 

    In all seriousness, those of us who dare to trade shorter-term/more actively have to be as nimble as possible.  From riding momentum on the way up to switching to or adding short positions when the market gets too toppy (though that second part is tough).

    History is both potentially useful and utterly pointless.  “Sell in May and go away?”  For the month, “true”.  Go on vacation in August when the rest of the market does?  Oh man, I would’ve missed a hell of an opportunity to regain some lost ground if I worshipped at the altar of market dogma for _that_ one (or worse still, the sub-altars of such types as “the equity market is dead”).  The only way to navigate the markets longer-term as a trader is to develop some kind of personal market barometer along with a risk barometer.  Barometers that can change readings to both extremes on a moment’s notice, and those that are as free of bias as humanly possible.

    AAPL is affected by macro, sure, but the rally no one “likes” (read: expected?) continues.  Adjust for events (read:  most of next week LOL), see the story/fundamentals, assess your conviction, act accordingly.  I see no reason to change my Jan 14 core trade right now, though I reassess every single trading day. 

    Learning as I go opened my eyes to several risk mitigation strategies I didn’t know or couldn’t grasp just a year ago.  The account value delta isn’t necessarily gonna change much given the way today’s market moves, but stuff like raising cash, biding one’s time and making cash flow from unexpected market moves, avoiding trades with potentially catastrophic consequences, as opposed to feeling trapped in a red directional trade turns the market from something hopelessly rigged to more of a chess match where knowledge can keep you in the game.

    I nominate this post for the AFB Wisdom Hall of Fame.

    Mav, that was awesome—thank you!! smile

    Seconded

         
  • Posted: 08 September 2012 03:56 PM #21

    Grrrrr….this new platform grows more frustrating daily…..Not sure how this happened.  I was posting my post in reply to iPads post and using her quote.  Then when I submitted my post, it showed up quoting someone else’s post…..grrrrr.

    Also, anybody figure out how to get the emoticons to work (on my MacBook Pro)?

    [ Edited: 08 September 2012 09:56 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 05:07 PM #22

    Looks like a couple of posts and giant block quotes need deleting here.

    And are Adam and Dave still on forum vacation or something?  Not saying anything won’t make the forum issues go away.

    The new forum software is _especially_ irritating on iPhone.  Autologin problems galore!

    Oh, and the whole “tap to check your profile, GET THE AD BEHIND IT” is totally unacceptable.  Improved mobile experience my foot.

    You know what they say about silence being deafening.

    [ Edited: 08 September 2012 05:09 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 05:59 PM #23

    mjuarez - 08 September 2012 02:32 AM

    Is anybody else getting wary up here?  I took a bit of profits off the table at the end of the day (still 85% long), since AAPL is usually weak the last few days before an announcement.

    What is your basis for this claim?

     

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 06:43 PM #24

    Translation:  Respect the sell the news effect.

    Thinking of some combination of selling my shorter-term trades into strength, shorting a little bit on the day of the iPhone 5 launch (after all, the German court rules on the ESM that day anyway) as a speculative bet/hedge, and adding trades again after the event risk has passed.  My Jan 14 core trade will probably stay on the table…it’s not too much of a stretch to predict AAPL closing over 725 or so by Jan 14 at this point in time.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 06:44 PM #25

    Back home from local area art exhibition.  I brought some of my mom’s art and had a chance to tour the show.  Weather was good.  Time for feet up and a V-8.

         
  • Posted: 08 September 2012 07:21 PM #26

    With respect to sell the news…I’m assuming that it is with a portion of the position or maybe selling calls against your longs.  The issue is that the trade is crowded on the way out and then will be crowded on the way in.  I am more inclined to take Dramamine and just chill….speculation on sale numbers, iPad Air, Chanukah, Christmas, .... all right around the corner….IMHO

    [ Edited: 08 September 2012 07:29 PM by Phoebear611 ]

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 07:30 PM #27

    My provisional, not-to-be-relied-upon-even-by-myself game plan involves HOLDING my Jan 14 core trade, IF/THEN my Dec 12 trade, and NEVER LET GO for my core common which helped me get to this humble plateau of mine in the first place.

    I mean, if you just “trade” LEAPs and you have a reasonable target, or you hold shares, why trade little events like this?

    When I trade, I just have to draw up a plan for the stuff that I, well, trade.  And so I have.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 08 September 2012 07:32 PM #28

    I found this amusing, not to mention heart-wrenching:

    http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3295286/disgusted-and-disappointed

    It is one poor soul’s tortured tale of coming to terms with the fact that Android is less than it appears.


    It’s reasonably long, but here are the first few paragraphs:


    “I’ve written before that I’ve become bored with Android. As much as I love using it, I need a change.

    And iOS is the only real alternative.

    As the Apple event looms closer, I’ve pretty much made up my mind to purchase the next iPhone.

    So far, the OS has ticked the majority of my boxes for what I need. Voice turn by turn directions. Better intergration for the limited use of Facebook. I’ve recently discovered a jailbreak app called Intelliscreen that supplements the use of widgets.

    And if rumors hold true, a larger screen.

    These things will help stem the lack of certain features I may miss leaving Android.

    Which leads me to another of my reasons for leaving: Googles lack of caring. I’ll begin with the Nexus.

    The Nexus. This is the supposed ‘holy’ device for the Android purists, right? The one device you can truly, without fail, count on to get timely updates.

    Yet….that’s no longer true is it?”

    *******

    Edit: I just finished watching the movie ‘Inglourious Basterds’ on TNT. Sort of reminds me of what I think is in store for Android on Wednesday. Can’t wait. Apple is probably locking the theatre doors about now.

    [ Edited: 08 September 2012 07:55 PM by Gridlock ]      
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 07:35 PM #29

    Wow.  Dude thought it through, which is nice (and rare, really).

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 08 September 2012 07:42 PM #30

    Phoebear611 - 08 September 2012 07:21 PM

    With respect to sell the news…I’m assuming that it is with a portion of the position or maybe selling calls against your longs.  The issue is that the trade is crowded on the way out and then will be crowded on the way in.  I am more inclined to take Dramamine and just chill….speculation on sale numbers, iPad Air, Chanukah, Christmas, .... all right around the corner….IMHO

    I may reduce my exposure somewhat if aapl strongly runs up Monday - Wednesday, but if it does not, I will just hold tight.  Most of my position is currently in Apr and Feb 600s, which I am inclined to hold through any turbulence anyway.