Weekend Updates

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    Posted: 09 September 2012 12:16 AM #31

    How many of us are ready for both runups and dropoffs as of now ? 

    As for me, I’m reasonably satisfied.  More optimistic than not.

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2012 12:45 AM #32

    I’m semi-bullish through Tuesday, though trends can change in an instant.

    Cautious on Wednesday.  Very likely to keep more cash back no matter what happens, particularly if I’m lucky enough to be right about the trend on Monday and/or Tuesday.  Even a small net gain next week is enough.  I’m gonna respect the calendar and I don’t plan to risk anything short-term long on an iPhone 5 event that is near-certain to “disappoint” like virtually every iPhone before it. LOL (/sarcasm, in case you weren’t sure)

    And if I’m wrong on Wednesday and AAPL blasts off, well that’s what my Jan 14 BCS and AAPL common are there for.  I don’t see anything messing with my net long trading thesis (yet).

    [ Edited: 09 September 2012 12:48 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2012 12:57 AM #33

    iPad, any word about forum fixes?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2012 04:34 AM #34

    lovemyipad - 08 September 2012 01:06 PM
    Mav is just doing a test of user name length - 08 September 2012 02:47 AM

    Wary?  No. 

    Maybe I should clarify.  My goal is to ALWAYS be wary.

    Also, 85% invested?  Pfft!  I’m maybe 70% invested, and that’s only as of end of day.  Ah, cash, the ultimate hedge. 

    In all seriousness, those of us who dare to trade shorter-term/more actively have to be as nimble as possible.  From riding momentum on the way up to switching to or adding short positions when the market gets too toppy (though that second part is tough).

    History is both potentially useful and utterly pointless.  “Sell in May and go away?”  For the month, “true”.  Go on vacation in August when the rest of the market does?  Oh man, I would’ve missed a hell of an opportunity to regain some lost ground if I worshipped at the altar of market dogma for _that_ one (or worse still, the sub-altars of such types as “the equity market is dead”).  The only way to navigate the markets longer-term as a trader is to develop some kind of personal market barometer along with a risk barometer.  Barometers that can change readings to both extremes on a moment’s notice, and those that are as free of bias as humanly possible.

    AAPL is affected by macro, sure, but the rally no one “likes” (read: expected?) continues.  Adjust for events (read:  most of next week LOL), see the story/fundamentals, assess your conviction, act accordingly.  I see no reason to change my Jan 14 core trade right now, though I reassess every single trading day. 

    Learning as I go opened my eyes to several risk mitigation strategies I didn’t know or couldn’t grasp just a year ago.  The account value delta isn’t necessarily gonna change much given the way today’s market moves, but stuff like raising cash, biding one’s time and making cash flow from unexpected market moves, avoiding trades with potentially catastrophic consequences, as opposed to feeling trapped in a red directional trade turns the market from something hopelessly rigged to more of a chess match where knowledge can keep you in the game.

    I nominate this post for the AFB Wisdom Hall of Fame.

    Mav, that was awesome—thank you!! smile

    Agreed.  One of the best posts around here, which is saying something!

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2012 07:36 PM #35

    The news is pretty bland this weekend.  Waiting for the iPhone and other iOS stuff.

    The usual inexplicables such as FB and AMZN.

    Oh, one more thing.  Forum appearance and usage.

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2012 07:39 PM #36

    We got ourselves a side order of temporal paradoxes too.

    Now, it could be that certain topics are stickied - but I’d never know it from the sea of gray folders.

    The forum appearance doesn’t really bug me.  The downgrade in functionality and increase in bugs - PARTICULARLY on iOS, which is ridiculous - does.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2012 08:39 PM #37

    Let’s move on from the forum migration observations. The site owner has stated improvements will be made over the next few weeks.

    Any news out of Europe that may have a material impact on Monday morning trading in New York?

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2012 08:41 PM #38

    It’s very early, especially with the Wednesday iPhone 5 announcement, but the weekly O/I currently shows spikes in calls at both 680 and 700.  http://aaplpain.com/?page_id=32

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2012 08:43 PM #39

    Think I am going to be ill - supposedly there is an interview with Jeff Bezos in All Things D and Tricia Duryee asked him several questions but one interesting thing that Bezos said was:
    “Amazon has now made the best tablet in the world—at any price.”
    And what tablet is this, you might be asking yourself? The Kindle Fire HD

    WTF is this guy smoking?

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2012 08:46 PM #40

    DawnTreader - 09 September 2012 08:39 PM

    Let’s move on from the forum migration observations. The site owner has stated improvements will be made over the next few weeks.

    Any news out of Europe that may have a material impact on Monday morning trading in New York?

    I hear the French are going to have a national day of protests and public service strikes, because they are so upset with the recent forum changes.  Once the French get started, who knows what come next.  A world-wide contagion I fear.

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2012 08:47 PM #41

    Phoebear611 - 09 September 2012 08:43 PM

    WTF is this guy smoking?

    His shareholders’ money? wink

     

         
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    Posted: 09 September 2012 08:51 PM #42

    Phoebear611 - 09 September 2012 08:43 PM

    Think I am going to be ill - supposedly there is an interview with Jeff Bezos in All Things D and Tricia Duryee asked him several questions but one interesting thing that Bezos said was:
    “Amazon has now made the best tablet in the world—at any price.”
    And what tablet is this, you might be asking yourself? The Kindle Fire HD

    WTF is this guy smoking?

    LOL - i needed a good laugh today.  FYI - the new kindles got zero coverage here in New Zealand this week (not surprising seeing as its really a USA only device).. Meanwhile the countries most popular news sites had plenty of coverage of the iPhone 5 (a device yet to even be officially announced).

    P.S. obligatory forum overhaul gripe.

    Signature

    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2012 08:51 PM #43

    DawnTreader - 09 September 2012 08:47 PM
    Phoebear611 - 09 September 2012 08:43 PM

    WTF is this guy smoking?

    His shareholders’ money? wink

     

    Touche’

    Signature

    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2012 09:20 PM #44

    I won’t go into details here, but unwittingly Amazon may be doing Apple a few big favors. The Kindle may be the best tablet Amazon can deliver to correspond to the company’s business plan, but it’s not the best tablet in the market.

    Let him talk and talk and talk…

    The more he talks, the better for Apple.

         
  • Posted: 09 September 2012 09:51 PM #45

    Lstream - 09 September 2012 08:46 PM

    I hear the French are going to have a national day of protests and public service strikes, because they are so upset with the recent forum changes.  Once the French get started, who knows what come next.  A world-wide contagion I fear.

    France has more problems than forum software. You’re in the right seat but at the wrong theatre. wink

    Looking at Europe for a moment, there’s the next round of financing for Greece and deliberations on mutualization of debt. Now the president of France is making some big promises.