AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:09 PM #91

    The trend is that iPhones do NOT meet impossible expectations.

    For purposes of shorter-term trading only…what makes this event any different?

    Obviously, macro is a huge backdrop this week, which makes forecasting all kinds of tough.

    [ Edited: 10 September 2012 05:13 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:10 PM #92

    rutgersguy92 - 10 September 2012 05:08 PM
    stevereel - 10 September 2012 05:02 PM

    Got stopped out of my Oct calls at breakeven. oh well.

    WAG- Pushed down today and tomorrow morning while evil overlords and a few smart AFBers back up the truck. Upward rocket launch may start as soon as tomorrow afternoon.

    Or sooner.  We just might see a Red Dog reversal tomorrow morning, to support what you are saying.

    Unexpected is the new normal.

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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:12 PM #93

    Mav - 10 September 2012 05:09 PM

    The trend is that iPhones do NOT meet impossible expectations.

    What makes this event any different?

    Who said it was? But the event hasn’t happened yet.

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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:18 PM #94

    Well, now that today’s happened, we just have to see how AAPL responds tomorrow.  One-day-at-a-time stuff.  There’s the low 660s, mid-650s, and 641 (the old intraday ATH, div-adjusted) to keep track of price-wise.  Ideally I want AAPL to keep above the 650s through Tuesday.  Best case, AAPL goes back to surfing the 665-675 range.  A strong bounce tomorrow would be really surprising though I won’t rule it out.

    Unless macro turns really sour (we’re not anywhere close to August 2011 fear levels), AAPL is still on an upward course.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 10 September 2012 05:31 PM #95

    I’m sure you are all watching AH - it’s down almost 3.  The whole thing is pretty weird but it is AAPL - I keep reminding myself that the company is solid and there is nothing different today than last Monday - if anything we are closer to the event.  I should remind myself what my signature is and take my own advice.

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:33 PM #96

    stevereel - 10 September 2012 05:10 PM
    rutgersguy92 - 10 September 2012 05:08 PM
    stevereel - 10 September 2012 05:02 PM

    Got stopped out of my Oct calls at breakeven. oh well.

    WAG- Pushed down today and tomorrow morning while evil overlords and a few smart AFBers back up the truck. Upward rocket launch may start as soon as tomorrow afternoon.

    Or sooner.  We just might see a Red Dog reversal tomorrow morning, to support what you are saying.

    Unexpected is the new normal.

    I don’t think it ever became outdated.  And I think there is enough fear out there, as evidenced by the almost $3 drop AH.  So another reversal would be the unexpected.

    EOs have done their job today. 

     

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:36 PM #97

    Phoebear611 - 10 September 2012 05:31 PM

    I’m sure you are all watching AH - it’s down almost 3.  The whole thing is pretty weird but it is AAPL - I keep reminding myself that the company is solid and there is nothing different today than last Monday - if anything we are closer to the event.  I should remind myself what my signature is and take my own advice.

    AAPL also happens to be the most manipulated stock out there (Jason Schwarz), so this kind of stuff is to be expected, I guess.  Little rough on the stomach,  but it’s part of the turf.

    Key now is to figure if this is like the April 10 event or not. At least Scott Redler is still long AAPL, and surprisingly didn’t use any stops on the way down today.

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:40 PM #98

    Am I the only one who follows the 0.5% rule?

    As in, if AAPL isn’t down more than 0.5% consistently during AH, it’s basically nothing?

    AH is pretty much whatever except for events.  Pre-market is marginally better as an “indicator”.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 05:51 PM #99

    rutgersguy92 - 10 September 2012 05:36 PM
    Phoebear611 - 10 September 2012 05:31 PM

    I’m sure you are all watching AH - it’s down almost 3.  The whole thing is pretty weird but it is AAPL - I keep reminding myself that the company is solid and there is nothing different today than last Monday - if anything we are closer to the event.  I should remind myself what my signature is and take my own advice.

    AAPL also happens to be the most manipulated stock out there (Jason Schwarz), so this kind of stuff is to be expected, I guess.  Little rough on the stomach,  but it’s part of the turf.

    Key now is to figure if this is like the April 10 event or not. At least Scott Redler is still long AAPL, and surprisingly didn’t use any stops on the way down today.

    If aapl gaps down tomorrow, I am going to add some Feb 700s (and be prepared for any turbulence)

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 06:01 PM #100

    Keep perspective, everyone.

    AAPL had a “whoa” day today, but we’ve all been here before.

    We could be in for a ride this week, but at least we should get a better sense of overall market direction after Wednesday/Thursday.  And iPhone 5 is gonna rock, no matter what certain idiot pundits say.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 06:10 PM #101

    Mav - 10 September 2012 05:09 PM

    The trend is that iPhones do NOT meet impossible expectations.

    For purposes of shorter-term trading only…what makes this event any different?

    Obviously, macro is a huge backdrop this week, which makes forecasting all kinds of tough.

    I haven’t seen as many crazy iPhone rumors this year, but I’ve been busy offline. Did I miss some?

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    Posted: 10 September 2012 06:21 PM #102

    (/sarcasm alert)

    Last I checked, people are bracing for some mild upgrade with an A5X derivative, a tiny bit more RAM to an “under-par” 1GB, a “little” more screen (well, no, but 18% more pixels apparently is small potatoes for some), and barely any extra battery life to counter the LTE power drain.  Maybe a camera upgrade or two here or there.  New form factor, but eh, everyone knows what it looks like from the mockups.

    So instead of a big hardware improvement in the same “boring” shell (iPhone 4S), it’s an “evolutionary” hardware improvement in a shiny new shell. 

    (/end sarcasm, mostly)

    Except iPhone 5 is likely to benefit from, at minimum, a die shrink that’ll allow for better efficiency and pure performance upgrades over the 4S, and Apple never scrimps on graphics in the key iOS smartphone/tablet space.  And the new screen may bring power savings over previous generations.  And that form factor will be Apple’s awesomest yet or his name isn’t Jony Ive.

    Anyway, brace for tired old “evolutionary, not revolutionary” nonsense.  Won’t matter longer-term.

    [ Edited: 10 September 2012 06:24 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 06:25 PM #103

    Thanks, Mav,

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    I’ve never owned a windows PC. Never will.

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    Posted: 10 September 2012 06:49 PM #104

    Went ahead and fired the last of my ‘powder’ and picked up 7 Apr 600 13
    Roth IRA
    37 Apr 13 600
    20 Jan 14 630
    8K cash - guess I can get a weekly smile

    I sold my Oct 12 550 Friday and maybecouldashouldawoulda waited, but I am happy with the price and expected returns. With the iPhone 5 release, Christmas and hopefully other new product releases next year, my portfolio will do just fine. Even with a further pullback, this will shortly look like just another bump in the road on the way to new ATHs.

    And for iPad, no more than 8k to lose in weeklies smile

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    Striving to exceed the needs of the future.

         
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    Posted: 10 September 2012 06:57 PM #105

    I actually think of any year the iphone has been refreshed, this is the most likely its ever been to surpass expectations.

    What everyone expects from the new phone has already been pretty much confirmed through leaked parts (Bigger screen, new form factor, new dock connector etc).

    I haven’t seen any speculation anywhere on mainstream sites specualting about anything other than the hardware features we already know about - which leaves apple wide open to surprise with exclusive software based features.

    Add in the possibility of a NTT and/or China Mobile announcement and wednesdays event is full of surprise possibilities outside of the physical hardware of the iPhone.

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    Full Disclosure:

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    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics