Correlation between new LEAPs and a strong week

  • Posted: 13 September 2012 08:04 PM

    As far as I know, the new Jan 2015 AAPL leaps will be appearing this Monday.  I remembered last year when the 2014s appeared, Apple had a great week, so I decided to recheck the numbers as well as a few years prior.  Obviously it’s a limited sample size, but there’s a really strong correlation going on here.  Here are the closing prices for the given dates:

    2011:
    Date - Close
    9/9 - 377.48
    9/12 - 379.94 (2014 Leaps became available)
    9/13 - 384.62
    9/14 - 389.30
    9/15 - 392.96
    9/16 - 400.50

    2010:
    9/10 - 263.41
    9/13 - 267.04 (2013 Leaps become available)
    9/14 - 268.06
    9/15 - 270.22
    9/16 - 276.57
    9/17 - 275.37

    2009:
    9/11 - 172.16
    9/14 - 173.72 (2012 Leaps became available)
    9/15 - 175.16
    9/16 - 181.87
    9/17 - 184.55
    9/18 - 185.02

    2008 was right in the middle of the financial crisis so it wasn’t really relevant.  Of the past 3 years Apple had 14 out of 15 positive days and the weekly gains were 7.5% (2009), 4.5% (2010), and 6.1% (2011).  Average weekly gain over 6%!

    I think it’s reasonable to think that there are a lot more people waiting to buy the 2015 calls than there are waiting to make bearish plays on those new options.  So is it that crazy to think there’s some serious upward pressure these weeks where new Leaps appear?  Something to keep an eye out for next week…

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 14 September 2012 12:13 AM #1

    I thought new LEAPs don’t come out until after Sept expiration, aka Sept 24?

    Signature

    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.
    —Jack Layton

         
  • Posted: 14 September 2012 04:31 AM #2

    moltenfire - 14 September 2012 12:13 AM

    I thought new LEAPs don’t come out until after Sept expiration, aka Sept 24?

    Pretty sure it’s 9/17

    http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What-s-On-Our-Minds/2015-Equity-and-ETF-LEAPS-Listing-Schedule-by-Marty-Kearney/ba-p/3437

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 14 September 2012 03:00 PM #3

    mcharliem - 14 September 2012 04:31 AM
    moltenfire - 14 September 2012 12:13 AM

    I thought new LEAPs don’t come out until after Sept expiration, aka Sept 24?

    Pretty sure it’s 9/17

    http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What-s-On-Our-Minds/2015-Equity-and-ETF-LEAPS-Listing-Schedule-by-Marty-Kearney/ba-p/3437

    Thanks for the heads up about the new LEAPs. 

    Unfortunately this week’s iPhone 5 announcement adds another compelling reason why AAPL is up this week, so I’m not sure you can test your hypothesis about a correlation between new LEAPs and a strong week this time. 

    And if preorder numbers are announced early next week just like with the 4S last year, then next week will be a good week even without new LEAPs being released (presuming the preorder numbers are good).

     

    Signature

    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.
    —Jack Layton

         
  • Posted: 15 September 2012 11:36 AM #4

    mcharliem - 13 September 2012 08:04 PM

    As far as I know, the new Jan 2015 AAPL leaps will be appearing this Monday.  I remembered last year when the 2014s appeared, Apple had a great week, so I decided to recheck the numbers as well as a few years prior.  Obviously it’s a limited sample size, but there’s a really strong correlation going on here.  Here are the closing prices for the given dates:

    Thanks for this. My question is are the 2015 Leaps a good option to buy right out of the gate?

    Any guess as to what the 1k strikes will be at??

         
  • Posted: 15 September 2012 01:55 PM #5

    I would bet somewhere between $35-40.

         
  • Posted: 15 September 2012 02:01 PM #6

    huskerrx - 15 September 2012 01:55 PM

    I would bet somewhere between $35-40.

    Wow. That low??  I thought they’d be at least $100

    I suspect apple will be trading upwards of $1500 - $2000 by then.

    Guess I’ll just have to settle for 10X return on my $. Better then a sharp stick in the eye