Apple will announce results for the June quarter later on Tuesday, after the markets close. Analysts largely consider the June earnings report to be baked in, and all eyes are essentially on Apple’s September guidance. Some analysts are projecting Apple to turn in year-over-year declines in revenues for the September quarter—here’s how it breaks down.
Apple guided for revenue between US$52.5 billion and $54.5 billion in the June quarter when it released March quarter earnings. Wall Street consensus is that Apple will turn in revenues of US53.39 billion, just about in the middle of Apple’s guidance.
It’s the September guidance that will likely steer Apple’s near-term stock performance. Apple hasn’t issued guidance for the quarter yet, but Wall Street consensus estimates are for $61.02 billion in revenues. The thing is, however, that Apple turned in revenues of $62.9 billion in the September quarter of 2018. If Apple guides lower, as Wall Street is expecting, it would represent a year-over-year decline in revenues—Wall Street doesn’t usually like such things.
Which means, if Apple guides higher, analysts will rejoice and the markets will likely send the stock higher on Wednesday. If Apple guides to what Wall Street is expecting, those results may well be priced into the stock, depending on just how low Apple guides.
Other areas that analysts will be honing in on include any crumbs about specific product performance, either in the June quarter or September quarter. As has been the case for years, it’s iPhone news that will be the most valuable.
Shares of Apple ended the day on Monday at US$209.68, a gain of $1.94. The stock spent most of the day above the $210 mark—pushed by a price target increase from UBS—but gave back a few whiskers of those gains in the closing minutes.
*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a tiny, almost insignificant share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.