Apple is cutting iPhone X production in half because of weak demand, or it’s one of the top selling phones in the U.S., Japan, and Europe. It seems the experts can’t decide if Apple’s flagship smartphone is selling great or tanking.

Confused woman and iPhone X

Are iPhone X sales great, or horrible? Who knows?

iPhone X Sales Suck

First up, we have sources telling the Wall Street Journal Apple is seeing lower than expected numbers for iPhone X sales. They say Apple is cutting first quarter iPhone X production from 40 million units down to 20 million. Sources also say Apple has reduced components orders by 60%.

The US$999 price tag is cited as a big stumbling block for sales—$50 more than an iPhone 8 Plus with 256 GB storage.

iPhone X Sales are Great

Next up, industry research firm Kantar says the iPhone X was one of the top three best selling smartphones for December 2017 in the U.S., Japan, and Europe. It was also the top seller in urban China for the same period.

Contradicting the WSJ on iPhone X pricing, the Kantar report states,

Given that in December iPhone X made it into the top three best-selling devices across all key regions, particularly in urban China where it was the top selling model, the pricing strategy seems to have been vindicated.

iPhone X Sales Mystery

Supply chain sources say Apple is dramatically scaling back iPhone X production, but that’s difficult to gauge because those sources know only what their specific component orders are. Apple has a wide range of suppliers, and one source seeing a reduction doesn’t necessarily mean they all are.

Industry researchers say iPhone X is selling well, but they don’t have access to Apple’s actual sales numbers. Right now they’re basing their assessment on data from other sources such as retailers, customer sales data, and device activations.

The bottom line is no one outside of Apple knows how well the iPhone X is selling. We will, however, know more on February 1st when Apple releases its 2018 first fiscal quarter earnings report. Until then, we have what amounts to Schrödinger’s iPhone: It’s selling well, and it’s selling poorly until Apple tells us otherwise.

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Well, I’m thinking most of them. The state of actual ‘reporting’ is dismal.
That said, I used the opportunity to add to my AAPL holding (modest as it is) by buying a few more shares.
And I’m enjoying my iPhone X very much.

John Kheit

Doesn’t this definitively prove at least half the analysts suck?

Or more likely, all of them.