The Deeper Reason ARM-Based Macs Hurt Intel

2 minute read
| Particle Debris

At first blush, the financial impact of Apple abandoning Intel CPUs for its Macs looks relatively minor. But there’s a deeper reason ARM-Based Macs Hurt Intel. And it’s a whopper.

At Bloomberg, Tae Kim reports: Apple’s Mac Chip Switch Is Double Trouble for Intel.

The Deeper Reason ARM-Based Macs Hurt Intel

Author Kim starts with what we’ve surmised all along.

The most obvious is the direct impact of losing revenue as the sole processor supplier for Apple’s PC line. The Mac currently represents 12% of the U.S. PC market based on units sold, according to the latest Gartner data….

At first blush, the financial losses for Intel seem manageable. However, there are second-order effects that may prove more worrisome.

The Deeper Reason ARM-Based Macs Hurt Intel

Not the A13, but a future variant of the A14 expected in Macs in 2021.

The second, not-so-obvious impact is more of a headache for Intel. Author Kim gets right to it.

Currently, Intel dominates the high-profit-margin data-center business, where it sells server chips to cloud-computing providers and corporations….

Linus Torvalds, the creator of Linux, has long said the main reason Arm chips have struggled to gain traction in servers was because there weren’t any Arm-based PC platforms at critical mass….

Now, though, with Mac shifting to Arm-based chips, developers will have tens of millions of Arm-based machines at their finger tips, offering a thriving ecosystem for the up-and-coming chip architecture.

This analysis is compelling because corporate servers generally run Linux and macOS is basically FreeBSD, a UNIX cousin of Linux. Author Kim concludes:

Yes, it will take some time for Apple’s move to impact the market…. But in coming years, Intel’s key [enterprise] businesses will be threatened by Apple’s move.

I agree, and my hat is off to author Kim for this analysis.

The Week’s Apple News Debris

• Would you believe? Cult of Mac writes: “9 new iPhone models, a new Mac head for certification before WWDC.

Regarding these 9 iPhone models,

These are all thought to be variants of the iPhone 12 lineup, which, according to countless other reports, will be available in four size options with two different 5G connectivity options for different markets.

[5G Wireless Actually Has 3 Bands—How That Impacts the Next iPhone.]

The success of the iPhone SE suggests that Apple needs to cover its bases across the entire size spectrum nowadays. Hence four sizes.

2019 iMac

2019 iMac. An old design, ready for retirement? Image credit: Apple

Regarding the new iMac,

One tipster expects the machine to sport a significant redesign inspired by iPad Pro, as well as the latest AMD Navi graphics and a T2 Security Chip. It could be the biggest change for iMac in almost eight years.

That means a full screen, small bezel all-around design without the bar and Apple logo at the skirt of the display. I discussed that idea on BGM with Rene Ritchie.

[Apple Industry Analyst Rene Ritchie – TMO BGM Interview.]

5G wireless and iPhone

• Finally, if you do plan to dive into 5G wireless this year, Gene Munster writes: “5G Will Live up to the Hype, Apple Will Capitalize.

We expect it to take wireless carriers another two to three years to build out 5G coverage. At that point, Apple is set to capitalize on a massive wave of 5G-related tech spending. In our view, Apple is the best way to invest in the 5G cycle.

Isn’t that always so with emerging technology?


Particle Debris is generally a mix of John Martellaro’s observations and opinions about a standout event or article(s) of the week followed by a discussion of articles that didn’t make the TMO headlines, the technical news debris. The column is published most every Friday except for holiday weeks.

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Lee Dronick

“Here is why: A species is rewarded with a survival advantage for taking risks; individuals are rewarded with a longer lifespan for risk aversion. “   Did you ever read the short store Frost and Fire by Ray Bradbury?   “Time is the main topic in the short story “Frost and Fire”, whose original 1946 title was “The Creatures That Time Forgot”. It is about the inhabitants of a planet (probably Mercury) whose proximity to the Sun shortens their lifespan to exactly eight days. They are born with “racial memory”, able to talk and think, and knowing they descend from the survivors… Read more »

wab95

Lee:   No, I have to admit, I have not read it; indeed I’ve read less Bradbury than I care to admit, focussing more on Clarke, Asimov, Heinlein, and Bova in my youth (also because The Martian Chronicles were always checked out of the library at my boarding school).    The Frost and Fire is a brilliant metaphor, not surprisingly coming from a brilliant visionary. I’ve added to my reading list. Thank you.   In my personal experience, the happiest individuals are those who forget themselves, and who, casting aside morbid preoccupation and doubt, not with reckless abandon but in… Read more »

wab95

John:   Change is hard.    Were it easy, we would not require seers, prophets, visionaries, revolutionaries, leaders and social upheaval to make it so. But we do. Consistently. This fact has been co-eternal with humanity itself, which is why amongst the world’s sacred literature, one citation categorises our response to messengers in terms of ‘banishing some and slaying others’. That pretty well sums up our response to the advance guard. In today’s social media, that response might be categorised as ‘unfollowing some and lambasting others’.    Your lede this week from Tae Kim at Bloomberg, and both its in… Read more »

geoduck

<blockquote> A species is rewarded with a survival advantage for taking risks; </blockquote>
Tell that to sponges.
 

geoduck

A species is rewarded with a survival advantage for taking risks;”
Tell that to sponges

wab95

😆

wab95

@geoduck:
 
A note on sponges: when it comes to risk taking, they suck. 
 

Lee Dronick

“ARM-Based Macs” 
See yesterday’s Joy of Tech comic
 
http://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/2715.html

geoduck

Many of the servers I supported back in the day did run Linux or other *nix OSs. But those were often running virtual machines, many of which were Windows Server systems. *nix compatibility is only part of the issue.

Paul Goodwin

Let’s hope this whole Apple ARM chip design works out better than the PowerPC RISC thing did. The whole PowerPC development was supposed to stay way ahead of the Intel CISC (x86) processors. In the end there wasn’t much difference, the devices cost more than the Intel devices, and the whole process came to a dreary end after a lot of promises up front. The new ARM Macs better be able to run MS Office without re-booting the machine, and without a big performance hit.

Macsee

Exactly. Compatibility with the x86 Intel (90% of the worldwide market) is a must. Either that or switch to Windows, which we do not like, but will be forced since our productivity workflow is top priority.

joe_u

Server world is basically Dell, HP and Super Micro. None of the big three are capable of running Mac OS X. So, not sure what she is taking about. All these servers are using Intel Processors and run Windows Server or Linux. Dell and HP could care less about Arm in the server world. Loss of Apple as an Intel client will not effect Intel at all.   Dell and Intel are very open about product roadmaps for the future for their enterprise clients. Apple is always secretive playing it close to the vest with product releases thus, never really… Read more »