Analyst: Get Ready for a 29% Jump in Mac Sales

| Apple Stock Watch

Apple's Mac computer sales are on the rise and on track to show a 29 percent jump year over year for October and November, and 13 percent for the December quarter. Those numbers come from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster who was working with data from the research firm NPD.

Apple's iMac numbers should be much higher year over yearApple's iMac numbers should be much higher year over year

Mr. Munster told investors,

While the 29 percent year over year tracking appears strong, we note that Apple was short 700,000 iMacs in the December 2012 quarter. While it is difficult to track the 700,000 iMac difference from last year into the current NPD numbers, we believe the NPD data directionally supports Street assumptions for a year over year recovery in Macs due to the easy comp. We remain comfortable with our 13 percent year over year growth expectation on Macs.

Considering Apple wasn't able to produce nearly as many iMacs as it wanted during its fourth fiscal quarter last year, it isn't a stretch to assume the company will out produce and out sell Macs during this year's December quarter. This time last year, Apple was dealing with iMac production headaches and limited parts availability, which severely cut into the available inventory

This year, Apple has a strong Mac product lineup going into the holiday buying season with recent laptop and iMac updates and reasonable inventory levels.

Mr. Munster is maintaining his "Overweight" rating and US$640 target price for Apple's stock. Apple closed on Monday at $557.50, and is trading in the pre-market at $557.15, down 0.35 (0.06%).

[Thanks to Barrons for the heads up]

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Apple has recent product updates and good inventory levels this year. Mac sales better be up compared to last year.

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Two other factors:
The utter disaster that is Windows 8. I’d expect people look at it and then look seriously at a Mac.
Tablets. I’d expect to see a lot more people adopting tablets over full computers.

Could go either way.


The only thing that kept the PC market going was the fact you could still get Windows 7.

Now with Ballmer planning to kill his only good OS in 2014, a lot of people are going to be looking at Mac.  Great news for Apple, not so great for the MS CEO who’ll be inheriting the mess.


d’monder: I don’t think MS is planning to kill Windows 7 in 2014.  It is Windows XP that will no longer be supported by MS with updates and fixes, which is not technically “killing” it though it will become a “dead platform walking.”  smile 

Note XP is still in use by approx 30% of all Windows users - what these users decide to do is anyone’s guess!  However, its safe to assume that they are not “power users” seeking high performance computing…

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