Analyst: Apple Could Sell 45 Million iPads in 2011

| Apple Stock Watch

Apple could sell as many as 45 million iPads during 2011, according to Brian White, an analyst with Ticonderoga Securities. In a research note to clients covered by eWeek, Mr. White said that he checks with Apple suppliers and the company’s newly announced aggressive retail presence will drive sales this holiday season, and into 2011.

“We continue to believe the Apple iPad will be one of the most coveted gifts this holiday season,” Mr. White wrote. “Our trip to Taiwan and China this week provides further evidence of strong demand for the iPad during H2:2010.”

In the past week, Apple has announced retial agreements with Target, Wal-Mart, Sam’s Club, Verizon, and AT&T, all of whom will be adding the iPad to their fleets of retail stores.

“The combination of these [AT&T and Verizon] agreements, along with the iPad launch at Target on October 3 and Wal-Mart’s plans to begin selling iPads on October 15 will continue to drive better than expected demand for iPad,” wrote Mr. White.

Ch-ChingTo offer some context for the analyst’s 2011 numbers, the company sold some 3.3 million iPads in its first quarter of availability. Estimates for the September quarter are that Apple sold between 3 million and five million iPads — Apple will announce results for the September quarter on Monday, October 18th.

If Apple sells 45 million iPads in 2011, that would mean an average of 11.25 million iPads per quarter, or more than $6 billion. For analyst Brian White, it would also be more than twice his own previous estimates.

“We believe these announcements are significant in Apple’s push to expand the adoption of iPad before competitors begin offering tablet-like devices in early 2011,” he wrote. “Additionally, this aggressive sales channel expansion by Apple supports our field check last week with a Taiwan supplier that is expecting up to 45 million iPad unit sales in CY2011, which is more than double our 21.8 million forecast.”

Shares in Apple continued their run-up in advance of the company’s Monday earnings announcement. In morning trading, AAPL was trading at $305.864, a gain of $3.554 (+1.18%).

*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.

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The last time a company was that successful with a product was in 1908. The company was Henry Ford’s Motor Company and the product was called FORD MODEL T.

Constable Odo

What gets me is all those tech people that quickly said the iPad would be a tremendous failure because it had so many deficiencies.  There must really be a huge gap between tech people and consumers’ way of thinking.  From a tech person’s viewpoint, Apple must have taken a huge risk to produce the tablet.  Yet I’d heard that when the Apple execs had shown the iPad prototype to other execs in companies, they said they took to the iPad right away as being such a natural device to use.

Obviously, tech-heads that are only interested in features just don’t see the device the same way as consumers who are simply looking for an easy to use device.  I’m just glad Apple paid attention to that rather simple fact.  I believed the iPad would be popular, but I never dreamed of these types of rapid adoption numbers.  Maybe not even Apple.  So, it’s come to pass that the iPad naysayers were way off course.

I’ll bet there were an awful lot of people that said the automobile would never take the place of horse-drawn transportation.


So that must be why the stock fell over $20 after Monday’s ER? Either people don’t beieve the hype, or the hype isn’t impressive enough. On the other hand, Google’s stock went up by nearly $75 in the two days following their earnings so maybe people think Apple’s days as the mobile tech leader are numbered and Google is looking closer in the rear view mirror.

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