Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty expects Apple will sell some 61.5 million iPhones in 2011, or about 25 percent more than Wall Street estimates indicate. In addition, a survey conducted by the financial analysis firm indicates almost 17 percent of Verizon’s subscribers would likely switch to the iPhone if it was available on the carrier’s network.
Based on Ms. Hubverty’s data, Apple will continue to grow thanks to increased iPhone marketshare, iPad demand that beats Wall Street expectations, product demand in China, and growing popularity in the corporate market.
Ms. Huberty is basing her new estimates on a survey conducted in conjunction with Alphawise that showed the number of iPhone customers planning on upgrading to a newer model rose from 18 percent in November 2009 up to 58 percent in March 2010. If accurate, that could lead to about 19 million iPhone upgrade sales in 2011.
Apple will also likely drop the price of the iPhone 3GS to US$99 after releasing the fourth generation version of its combination iPod and smartphone. She predicts that if AT&T drops the monthly contract fees for most iPhone owners from $90 down to $75, iPhone sales would jump up by another 7 million units.
Ms. Huberty is raising her target price for Apple’s stock from $275 up to $310. Apple is currently trading at $249.09, up 6.77 (2.79%).
[Thanks to Fortune for the heads up.]