Analyst: Apple to Sell 6 Million iPads in 2010 & Lower Total Cost of Ownership on iPhones

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty told clients Friday that she expects Apple to sell some six million iPads during calendar 2010 - on Wednesday, Toni Sacconaghi predicted 2.2 million iPads for fiscal 2010, which doesn't include the holiday buying December quarter. Ms. Huberty also believes that Apple will introduce cheaper iPhones in June that lower the total cost of ownership for the devices.

According to a Seattle Times blog post, Ms. Huberty told clients in a research note that, "We expect Apple to ship its first iPad and announce additional content deals in late March to better than expected demand. We see the iPad targeting the sub-$800 consumer notebook market, which equates to 30M annual units just in the US (120M globally)."

She expects Apple to expand the number of retail distribution points throughout the year as well, something that could add from, "500K-1M units from channel fill alone."

Looking ahead at the iPhone, Ms. Huberty again touched on the iPhone's total cost of ownership as a barrier to Apple growing market share, something the analyst seems to feel is necessary for Apple to be successful. In today's research note, she hinted that Apple could be looking for way to lower the amount customers pay for data and voice services on the device.

"We expect Apple to launch new iPhones in June that offer both a lower total cost of ownership and new functionality, potentially including gesture-based technology. As we've highlighted in the past, the cost of device + service plan is currently the biggest barrier to incremental demand in both mature markets like the US and emerging markets like China."

She didn't offer details on how Apple might do this, however.

The analyst said that recent pullbacks on Apple's stock price could result in a bounce in March once Apple releases the new iPad, and she reiterated her US$250 price target on the stock.

Apple's stock closed higher on Friday at $204.62 per share, a gain of $2.62 (+1.30%), on moderate volume of 18.1 million shares changing hands.

*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.