Analyst: iPad Sales Could Top 28M in 2011

| Apple Stock Watch

Interest in Apple’s iPad doesn’t seem to be letting up, and UBS analyst Maynard Um thinks that could lead to 28 million units sold in 2011. He also sees the iPad eating away at more of the PC notebook market.

“It appears that the iPad is adversely impacting the PC industry, specifically notebook PCs, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets,” Mr. Um said. “We see a limited threat from competition and raise our calendar 2011 iPad unit forecasts to 28 million, which we believe could still be conservative.”

While the iPad is having a negative impact on PC sales, Mr. Um doesn’t see it eating into Mac sales.

Mr. Um’s positive outlook on the iPad is mirrored by his thoughts on the iPhone. He sees strong iPhone 4 sales, and expects a CDMA-based model will come out sometime after the first of the year.

“iPhone 4 demand continues to be robust and our checks confirm a CDMA iPhone likely on track for [the first quarter on 2011] and iPhone 5 likely for mid-2011,” he said. “We raise our iPhone unit forecasts modestly to embed some CDMA units (52 million in calendar 2011 from 47.2 million).”

Mr. Um is raising his fiscal 2010 EPS estimate from US$14.51 up to $18.09, and is raising his fiscal 2011 EPS estimate from $14.50 up to $16.62.

Mr. Um is maintaining his “Buy” rating for Apple’s stock, but raising his target price from $340 up to $350. Apple is currently trading at $261.00, up 3.19 (1.24%).

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Traditional Mac users understand that the iPad is not a replacement for their computer. It is a valuable accessory. It adds in-home mobility for browsing and email without the need of hauling the laptop around. It’s nice on the patio and awesome in the kitchen. It is what it is. And considering it started out at a cost HALF of what most analysts predicted, sales seem to be holding their own now, don’t they… grin


I am a “pc refugee” and I am sick and tired of having to hunt down software conflicts everytime I download an update or load a new program. My introduction to Apple came in the form of the first gen. touch and I can tell you this device has been the most useful one I have ever owned. I know the ipad is even better. Apple is very good at delivering a product that does what they say it does. Immagine an automobile that does not work correctly 30% of the time. I’ll be looking foward to the Ipad mark II!(better connectivity, memory card slots?)


Apple, with its iPad and its Apple TV, seems to have a tiger by the tail.

One reason is that people are not content creators, but they are content consumers with opinions.

The PC form factor, with a separate box, monitor and keyboard, or the laptop where all these elements are together, is overkill for most media consumption.

That overkill is why the Apple TV now stands a chance at only $99, and as does the iPad for providing feedback.

I would not use an iPad for content creation.

I have my PC, iMac and MacBook Pro for that, with their attached monitors, microphones, audio keyboards, mixers and cameras.

But for content consumption, an Apple TV or an iPad is just perfect.


Note, UBS is saying ‘notebook’ and not ‘netbook’. Not long ago, some complained about projections of Apple’s portable market share that included the iPad, arguing that this was basically an over-sized smartphone. Others justified it by pointing out that other companies’ projections included their netbook lineup, with which the iPad was a direct competitor.

If the iPad is now stealing market share from the notebooks, and in fact analysts are now warning a modest slump in earnings for Intel based on weaker than expected notebook sales, then such comparisons are not only justified, but necessary in order to understand evolving trends in how consumers use the technology, and what they value.

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