Analyst: iPad Sales Could Top 28M in 2011

Interest in Apple’s iPad doesn’t seem to be letting up, and UBS analyst Maynard Um thinks that could lead to 28 million units sold in 2011. He also sees the iPad eating away at more of the PC notebook market.

“It appears that the iPad is adversely impacting the PC industry, specifically notebook PCs, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets,” Mr. Um said. “We see a limited threat from competition and raise our calendar 2011 iPad unit forecasts to 28 million, which we believe could still be conservative.”

While the iPad is having a negative impact on PC sales, Mr. Um doesn’t see it eating into Mac sales.

Mr. Um’s positive outlook on the iPad is mirrored by his thoughts on the iPhone. He sees strong iPhone 4 sales, and expects a CDMA-based model will come out sometime after the first of the year.

“iPhone 4 demand continues to be robust and our checks confirm a CDMA iPhone likely on track for [the first quarter on 2011] and iPhone 5 likely for mid-2011,” he said. “We raise our iPhone unit forecasts modestly to embed some CDMA units (52 million in calendar 2011 from 47.2 million).”

Mr. Um is raising his fiscal 2010 EPS estimate from US$14.51 up to $18.09, and is raising his fiscal 2011 EPS estimate from $14.50 up to $16.62.

Mr. Um is maintaining his “Buy” rating for Apple’s stock, but raising his target price from $340 up to $350. Apple is currently trading at $261.00, up 3.19 (1.24%).