Analyst: iPhone Sales Slow, 4GB Model Coming

| Apple Stock Watch

UBS analyst Maynard Um expects Apple's iPhone 3G shipments for the quarter may fall below his 5 million unit estimate, and that the company may be preparing to release a 4GB version of its popular combination iPod and smartphone.

"We believe iPhone shipments could be below our 5 million unit forecast but our UBS semis team and our checks indicate a new 4GB iPhone which may be helping to increase build rates (about 7 million in Q1 and initial 2009 plans of about 23 million –- relatively good numbers)," Mr. Um said. "However, we caution that build rates have seen cuts in the past and may change and worry units could be driven at the expense of ASP and margins partially due to cannibalization." 

He added that Apple's quarterly revenue will likely fall in the company's guided range of US$9 to $10 billion thanks to the recently updated MacBook along with holiday promotional sales. Gross margins for the quarter are expected to come in above Apple's 31 percent guidance in part because of component pricing and an EPS above or near $1.35.

Looking forward, Mr. Um expects Apple will offer a wide and conservative guidance range for the second quarter with a gross margin target around 30 percent.

Mr. Um is maintaining his "Neutral" rating and $110 target price for Apple's stock. Apple is currently trading at $86.43, down 1.28 (1.46%).




Hmmm…. These professional analysts are about as reliable as MacRumors!


Yeah, umm… they already did that and took it off the market because it wasn’t selling well.  With how much the price of memory has come down in the 18 or so months since the iPhone hit the market, look for this NOT to happen.  If anything they will add a 32 GB option and lower the price on the existing 8 and 16 GB options.  But again, look for that not to happen, or at least any time soon.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

Um, do you realize that the barrier on smart phones is not the price of the device but the price and duration of the contract, along with the exclusivity of the carrier? Apple could double its unit sales overnight by making the iPhone available through Sprint and Verizon.



Googling this guy, I don’t see any indication he has the faintest idea what makes Apple tick.

How much credibility can he have when he “launched coverage of the PC sector,” in August 2008?

Here’s a novel idea… When you run one of these stories quoting a so-called analyst, set an alarm to remind you to review his comments and judge their accuracy after some reasonable time, and report the results. Then quote his track record with every future story quoting his self-promoting spew.

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