Analyst Raises Estimates on AAPL, Predicts 2.2 Million iPads in 2010

| Apple Stock Watch

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi raised his estimates for AAPL for fiscal 2010 and 2011, according to blog post from Barron's. Mr. Sacconaghi's primary reason for the change was what he sees as upward pressure on Apple's gross margins as the company shifts to a higher mix of iPhone sales. He also estimated that Apple would sell 2.2 million iPads in 2010, and another 6.8 million in 2011.

The analyst things that Apple's gross margins are roughly 58%. At 30% of the company's revenue, which is where the iPhone has sat for the last several quarters, Apple's overall gross margins have clocked in at about 40%.

He sees iPhones growing in sales fast enough to account for 45-50% of Apple's revenues, which would push up its overall gross margins and therefore increase profits by as much as 400 to 500 basis points (4-5%).

Overall, he expects Apple to sell as many as 45 million to 50 million iPhones in fiscal 2011, more than twice the 20.7 million units the company moved in fiscal 2009.

The iPad is also being figured into his estimates for the first time, which was also a part of the increase in estimates.

Shares in AAPL moved higher throughout the trading day on Wednesday In the mid-afternoon session, the stock was trading at US$200.09, a gain of $3.031 (+1.54%), on moderate volume.

*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.  

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At least he isn’t calling 1 million sold on the first weekend…. Remember the hysteria surrounding the iPhone launch? All the analysts claiming over 700,000 sold, there wasn’t even that many available (Apple only put 270,000 in the channel) and actual sales as reported by AT&T for the weekend was a record shattering 146,000 devices activated.

Constable Odo

I’ve got a feeling Apple will sell more iPads than that in the first year.  I think as long as there is a lot of content for the iPads, people will really take to them. I feel with the Apple retail stores in play, people will try them and then buy them.  I’ll bet the Europeans will be large quantity purchasers of iPads.

Neil Anderson

I’ll go with a million iPads sold in pre-orders.




I just pre-ordered a million myself wink

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