Sterne Agee: iPhone 1Q Sales Raise AAPL Estimates

| Apple Stock Watch

Apple MoneySterne Agee’s Shaw Wu has revised his estimates for Apple’s Q1 FY2012 results upwards again based on supply chain numbers. The Senior Technology Analyst estimates that Apple sold 29.5 million iPhones during the holiday quarter and has raised his target price for AAPL to US$540.00.

Mr. Wu also believes that Apple will report Mac sales of over 5 million, a first for Apple, and 13.5 million iPads. The revenue is estimated to be US$38.7B and earnings per share (EPS) of $10.34.

These are middle of the road estimates. Some analysts have predicted revenue as high as $41.8B and 33 million iPhones. The low range is at $35.3B and 25 million iPhones.

Mr. Wu told investors, “For its outlook, AAPL usually offers vintage conservative guidance, but based on the iPhone 4S launching in China on January 12 and our supply chain checks indicating a compelling iPad 3 launch, we believe it could be less conservative than usual. For the March quarter, we are modeling $31.4 billion in revenue and $8.06 in EPS vs. consensus at $32 billion and $8.00 in EPS.”

The Mac Observer will be covering Apple’s Earnings Report which starts today at 5:00 p.m. EST.

AAPL is currently selling at $422.33, down $5.08 for the day, amidst a general decline for some major tech stocks like MSFT and GOOG.

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Actual iPhone sales is 37.04 million which is 25% higher than Wu estimated.  I call that way, way, waaaaaaay off.  It’s even higher than the most optimistic estimates.

EPS of $13.06 vs his guess of $10.34.  15.43 million iPads vs 13.5 million predicted.  Much closer on Macs, 5.2M actual vs “over 5 million” predicted.

Apple is up to 455 in after hours trading.

People are constantly underestimating Apple.

Yeehah! For people holding AAPL.


It would be “Yeehah” if the stock market was remotely rational (in which case AAPL wouldn’t be so cheap anyway).. You can look forward to this (almost 40%) beat in earnings, leading to a small short term increase followed by a plunge as people take profits.  If you are holding long term, this result will be reflected in the share price in approximately 8 months - provided they are STILL outperforming and there are no further problems in Europe ... Good Grief !!

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