41% of all mobile phone users in the North America are planning on buying an iPhone 5 if Apple releases it this fall, according to a study conducted by mobile ad network InMobi. The company said half of those would do in the next six months, and that the result would be Apple’s market share leaping from 27% to 41%, on par with Android.
This has the potential of making the iPhone 5, “the most successful launch from the consumer electronics giant to date.”
The results were iPhone 5-specific. If Apple releases only a modified iPhone 4 this fall, “akin to the 3GS version of the iPhone that Apple released in 2009,” the survey found that only 15% of respondents were likely to purchase it.
The study was conducted among current mobile phone users in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. The company didn’t release specific methodology.
The firm said that, Consumers are most hopeful for improved battery life; increased processing speed; higher-quality screen resolution; and stronger phone service in the rumored Apple smartphone.”
So where are these new customers coming from? 52% of BlackBerry users are planning to jump to iPhone 5, while 51% of current iPhone owners (of all models) will do so. Just 27% of Android owners would make the switch, but that still represents a sharp turn in Apple’s already strong momentum.
The news is especially grim for Research In Motion, the maker of BlackBerry devices. The study found that, “Even if the announcement only unveils an iPhone 4S, 28% of current BlackBerry smartphone owners plan to switch to Apple, more than double the amount of current iPhone and Android owners.”
Even if these results are skewed in some way, the smartphone race is increasingly becoming one between two horses, iPhone and the communal beast known as Android.
We should point out, however, that meeting these kinds of sales results would require Apple to be able to make enough iPhone units to do so. The company appears to have dramatically improved its supply chain during the 15 months since the iPhone 4 was released, but these kinds of numbers would be taking Apple into uncharted waters of popularity.