Weekend iPad Pre-Orders Estimated at 152,000

| iPad


Investor Village’s AAPL Sanity board, which requires a subscription to view its content, on Monday noted that iPad pre-orders dropped from an estimated 25,000 per hour on Friday, the first day of availability, to around 1,000 per hour over the weekend. For the three-day period, the cumulative total was estimated at 152,000.

Daniel Tello, an analyst who was helping track order numbers and chart the sales activity, told Fortune’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt that he attributes half the sales activity last Friday to “pure overexcited fanboism.” Mr. Tello goes by the handle “Deagol,” which is the name of the hobbit in “The Lord of the Rings” who was killed for the One Ring by Smeagol; the ring eventually turned Smeagol into Gollum, whose lust for it only grew over time and completely corrupted him.

Mr. Elmer-DeWitt noted: “Tello is famous in Apple investor circles for making predictions of the company’s quarterly revenues and earnings that are as good as, and more often better, than those published by professional analysts.” He linked to Mr. Tello’s AAPL Model web page, which explains how he derived his iPad analysis.

Mr. Tello said: “With three weeks and two weekends left before they ship, I wouldn’t expect much more than half a million in pre-orders and reservations. My best guess, although very tentative given the early stage and few data we have so far, would be that they hit the 1 million unit milestone by the second week after it ships.”

He estimated that buyers preferred the Wi-Fi iPad model to the Wi-Fi+3G one by a more than 2:1 margin, with the percentage of orders between 16GB, 32GB, and 64GB capacities in roughly equal percentages to each other. However, Mr. Elmer-DeWitt said that the weekend saw orders for the 64GB model increase slightly, giving it a little edge at 35 percent.

Mr. Tello and a fellow AAPL Sanity Board member, Valcent Financial Group analyst Victor Castroll, continue to look for volunteers to submit their order details and help continue the pre-order tracking. They’re asking that emails be sent to ipadsales10@gmail.com and include the order number with the last three digits Xed out, the number of iPads ordered, the order time, time zone, memory capacity and whether the iPad is Wi-Fi only or Wi-Fi + 3G.


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I’ve heard similar figures from other sources, but I wonder whether this is really just “pre-orders” and doesn’t include “reservations.” Since my reservation doesn’t give me an order number, I guess I can’t submit my data to their pre-order tracking email address.


I think it’s going to be hard to just walk in and grab one for a while. Summer maybe.

Jim Fournier

I know more people who reserved an iPad than who ordered one.  Now, I live and work in the Boston/Cambridge area, where there are several Apple stores, so this may be atypical, but I’d be surprised if this pattern does not hold in most of the major cities.  If so, then geoduck’s prediction could be optimistic.


That’s what concerns me. I’m interested in getting an iPad but I won’t purchase one until I get a chance to play with it to see if it’s right for me. It could be a while.


why would you want a ipad when you look at the video were steve jobs is presenting it when he is on the internet it looks like it doesnt support flash so whats the point how am i going to be able to play my farmville on it?


ow am i going to be able to play my farmville on it?



how am i going to be able to play my farmville on it?

Sounds like you need to get out into the real world a bit more, armando. if you really must play “your farmville” all the time, get a netbook.


i was being sarcastic sort of im serving overseas and i have a desktop so thats all i do cause there is nothing better to do but why would you want to carry something as big as a ipad anyway?


i was being sarcastic

I got that but some may have missed it. A little subtle.

but why would you want to carry something as big as a ipad anyway?

For me several related reasons.  I’ve been very interested in iPhone/iPod games. I have several apps that might be useful for work. I’m also interested in it as a book reader. Most importantly, it’s bigger and so much easier for these old eyes to read whatever I’m using it for. Eventually I’ll get an iPhone (once I finally get out from under this !@&^!! Rogers contract), but most of the time I can see myself using an iPad because it’s bigger.

However all of this will wait until I can play with one to make sure it’ll do what I want.


well in that case i see you have a valid point to want it…. so you live in canada?


When these things hit the streets, sales will continue to climb; by Christmas there will be 5 million sold. When summer arrives and v4.0 is announced, with multitasking, sales will skyrocket.


well in that case i see you have a valid point to want it?. so you live in canada?

Yeah. We’re in Nanaimo, BC.

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