1.7 million iPhone 4s sold from Jun. 24 thru Jun 26

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    Posted: 29 June 2010 02:30 PM #31

    Mav - 28 June 2010 09:49 PM

    Agreed.  Let’s not forget that even though Apple has experience in this, every launch their initial sales figures get more and more ridiculous.  This kind of sales volume ($1 billion in three days?!) is uncharted territory.  Apple could throw a couple billion into making its own plants, it might be a good idea somewhere down the road, but honestly?  If Apple has a 12 million or so iPhone quarter in fiscal Q4 (62% YOY growth), how many of us here will actually be complaining that Apple didn’t make enough, and that consumers are permanently being lost to Android?  This rate of growth is barely “controlled” as it is. 

    I’m pretty sure that everyone who wants an iPhone will be able to just walk in to an Apple Store or order one online without much delay by the end of calendar Q3, as long as iPhone hasn’t recently launched in that particular country.  I believe the same held true for the 3GS.

    The question for me is not this year, but the next and the one after that.  Whatever the ramp is this year, double it next year and then double that the year after.  Pretty soon you can see that there is not enough capacity in the world to satisfy the hundreds of millions of iPhone users that will want to upgrade on launch day.

    I return to my recurring theme: this market is two orders of magnitude larger than what Apple is supplying today.


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    Posted: 29 June 2010 02:38 PM #32

    Eric Landstrom - 29 June 2010 05:16 PM
    Tiger - 29 June 2010 02:45 PM

    Here’s a thought for Apple. Since production is the problem, how about using some of the billions in cash on hand to develop training programs, train the workers, and open some factories in THIS country? With that much volume needed Apple can afford it, can probably acquire tax credits to do it to offset most of the initial startup costs, and it will employ people here for the long haul.

    Hint, this isn’t just to Apple either. If you want us to buy your products, employ us so we can afford them!

    Because it is significantly less expensive to manufacture in not-USA. Think about it: the auto OEMs are profitable everywhere in the world except here in the states. What’s different? Insane entitlement programs. A fellow family member is shutting down a manufacturing line in the Netherlands and moving it to Taiwan in the runaway factory defense because increasing demands to fund entitlements meant the line was no longer profitable in the Netherlands. Eventually the cumulative effect will learn ‘em: just like money, if you tax your OEMs, they will leave.

    Depends on what you manufacture.  Some products are more labor intensive than others.  The typical mobile phone today has 2% of its cost in labor.  At the extreme consider chip fabricators.  They hardly have any labor component and yet the plants cost billions.

    In some cases the shipping costs may actually be higher than the labor savings.  For large volumes it makes sense to locate manufacturing near to the points of sale.

    I’ve been inside a mobile phone manufacturing plant.  You have to walk a long way to find a human being.  The most labor intensive part was actually putting the phones in the sales package.  The second most labor intensive job was screwing the case together.  Both of these could be further automated.


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