Preliminary AAPL June Quarter Estimates

  • Posted: 05 July 2010 12:28 AM #31

    Thanks Deagol for the historical guidance/actual comparisons.  Very interesting data.  Given the unknown iPad sales at the time of the last earnings call, Apple may beat its own guidance for Q3 2010 by similar margins, or more, realized for Q2 2010.

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2010 02:10 AM #32

    Mav - 05 July 2010 02:55 AM
    DawnTreader - 05 July 2010 02:17 AM

    Let’s just change the title topic.  grin

    Recommendations?

    Something like “Apple Fiscal Q3 2010 Preliminary Discussion Thread”?

    16 days to go before the earnings release…

    Sounds good! The title has been changed…

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2010 07:28 AM #33

    But aren’t all estimates preliminary?

         
  • Posted: 05 July 2010 08:33 PM #34

    danthemason - 05 July 2010 10:28 AM

    But aren’t all estimates preliminary?

    They are preliminary until they are final. The proverbial fat lady is only now approaching the stage…

         
  • Posted: 06 July 2010 10:02 AM #35

    From Shawn Wu at Appleinsider

    “Analyst Shaw Wu said to investors Tuesday that he was shifting iPhone assumptions to later quarters due to the “high likelihood” that screen supply constraints and inventory drawdown will impact shipments over the next two quarters. He noted that Wall Street consensus calls for 8.5 million iPhone sales in the quarter that ended with June, but he believes the number will be closer to 7.5 million—down from his previous prediction of 9 million.”

         
  • Posted: 06 July 2010 12:01 PM #36

    As of 7/6/10. Unit sales in millions

    Analyst, affiliation         iPhones   Date of est.
    Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray   9.50   6/22/10
    Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna   9.44   6/18/10
    Robert Paul Leitao, AFB         9.40   7/2/10
    Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross   9.30   6/27/10
    Jeff Fosberg, AFB         9.25   6/3/10
    Ashok Kumar, Rodman & Renshaw   9.20   7/1/10
    Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams   9.20   4/21/10
    Keith Bachman, BMO Capital   9.20   6/28/10
    Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Mod   9.04   6/30/10
    Ralph Schackart, William Blair   8.94   6/28/10
    Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.  8.75   6/23/10
    Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer   8.60   6/30/10
    Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel   8.54   4/20/10
    Horace Dediu, Asymco         8.50   6/29/10
    Richard Gardner, Citigroup   8.50   6/28/10
    Ben Reitzes, Barclay’s Capital   8.14   6/22/10
    Bill Shope, Credit Suisse   7.96   4/8/10
    Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein   7.88   6/21/10
    Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch   7.80   6/28/10
    Turley Muller, Financial Alch.  7.80   7/4/10
    Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital   7.70   7/6/10
    Shaw Wu, Kaufman Bros.        7.50   7/6/10
    Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley   7.50   7/1/10
    Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan   7.44   7/1/10

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/04/how-many-iphones-did-apple-sell-3/

         
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    Posted: 06 July 2010 01:39 PM #37

    deagol - 04 July 2010 07:33 PM

    After formatting all that nicely, I remembered seeing an excellent table like this by someone, I believe right here in AFB. Went searching but couldn’t find it, but found this.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 06 July 2010 02:01 PM #38

    And here are my estimates, which like most professional analysts do, I reserve the right to change until July 20th, 15:59. smile

    Forgo to add:
    Guidance:
    Rev: $19B
    EPS: $4.70

    [ Edited: 06 July 2010 02:19 PM by awcabot ]

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 06 July 2010 04:09 PM #39

    awcabot - 06 July 2010 05:01 PM

    Forgo to add:
    Guidance:
    Rev: $19B
    EPS: $4.70

    :-o
    I’m guessing that’s your “real” estimate for Q4 and not what your expecting Apple to guide for?

    Thanks for digging up the guidance analysis table.

         
  • Posted: 06 July 2010 04:47 PM #40

    awcabot - 06 July 2010 05:01 PM

    And here are my estimates, which like most professional analysts do, I reserve the right to change until July 20th, 15:59. smile

    Forgo to add:
    Guidance:
    Rev: $19B
    EPS: $4.70

    That won’t be Apple’s guidance, to be sure.  But it looks good for actual Q4.  Your iTunes # is quite strong, and I hope you’re right!

         
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    Posted: 06 July 2010 07:03 PM #41

    deagol - 06 July 2010 07:09 PM
    awcabot - 06 July 2010 05:01 PM

    Forgo to add:
    Guidance:
    Rev: $19B
    EPS: $4.70

    :-o
    I’m guessing that’s your “real” estimate for Q4 and not what your expecting Apple to guide for?

    Thanks for digging up the guidance analysis table.

    Uhmm…yes. That’s the real McCoy, not the watered down corporate pap.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 07 July 2010 12:14 AM #42

    No matter what happens this quarter, as long as revs are in the $14.5 billion range, I think GM will comfortably exceed 40%.

    iPad changes the dynamic somewhat since we don’t yet have any real clue what kind of margins it has.  But I think we can largely agree that the 3G iPad version’s margins are fantastic, given the $130 premium for parts Apple already has both (1) massive experience engineering with and (2) massive cost leverage from the sheer volumes used.  If Apple’s revs are close to Q1 levels, I think GM can go as high as 43% thanks to massively decreased contribution from the much-lower-margin iPods.  AppleCare for iPad and other “add-ons” will also make a difference, to a lesser extent.  Once the numbers are out, we’ll have a little more indirect data about whether iPhone sales momentum is “needed” to keep GM safely above 40%, or whether iPad can also help move the average closer to 45% in the near future.  With over 3 million iPads sold, I think Apple has already ridden down the cost curve to fairly ridiculous levels.  It’s a WAG of course, but I think it’s only a matter of time before Apple can get average iPad GM (combining the Wi-Fi only and 3G-enabled models) to around 50%.

    Something to keep in mind is that Apple, if you round up a bit, has been at or above 40% GM on a “new GAAP” basis since fiscal Q2 2009.

    Since I don’t see it on this topic, here’s the true GM numbers for fiscal year 2009:

    Q1 - 37.9%
    Q2 - 39.9%
    Q3 - 40.9% (!)
    Q4 - 41.8% (!!)

    Adding in GMs for 2010:

    Q1 - 40.9%
    Q2 - 41.7%

    Unless iPhone sales are weaker than expected, I don’t see why GM for Q3 2010 will be lower than last year 40.9%.  Just for fun, I’ll throw out a back-of-the-napkin number of 42.3% GM for fiscal Q3.

    [ Edited: 07 July 2010 12:19 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 07 July 2010 12:16 AM #43

    Mav - 07 July 2010 03:14 AM

    Since I don’t see it on this topic, here’s the true GM numbers for fiscal year 2009:

    Q1 - 37.9%
    Q2 - 39.9%
    Q3 - 40.9% (!)
    Q4 - 41.8% (!!)

    Adding in GMs for 2010:

    Q1 - 40.9%
    Q2 - 41.7%

    Unless iPhone sales are weaker than expected, I don’t see why GM for Q3 2010 will be lower than last year 40.9%.

    Agreed.  I’m at 40.9% for Q3 2010, estimated independently from your analysis.

         
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    Posted: 07 July 2010 12:25 AM #44

    Interesting.  I’m oversimplifying here, but you think that on a higher revs base than last fiscal year (50%+ increase YOY), with more iPhones and less iPods in the mix, that GM will remain the same?  Is that because of iPad?

    Hopefully, analysts are continuing to underestimate/forget/ignore Apple’s insanely great expertise in amping up GM/net income as it increases its revenue base (granted, the “stagnation” of iPod helps as far as the “profitability ratio” metric is concerned).

    [ Edited: 07 July 2010 12:30 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 08 July 2010 03:43 AM #45

    :-D