2012 iOS Device Sales estimates

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    Posted: 28 November 2011 01:05 PM

    Horace just posted a nice article comparing various approaches to estimating devices sales: simple top down, manufacturing capacity, and some customer upgrade behavior modeling.


    Most interesting, in a comment below the blog posting, he posted his tentative estimates for iOS units sold this quarter AAPL Q1 FY 2012 (please keep in mind he says these are tentative):

    I publish my estimates every quarter but I have not done this quarter yet. My current (not final) estimate is 7 million iPod touch, 35 million iPhones and about 17 million iPads.

    iPad sales for 2012 I estimate at 87 million units.

    I’m very happy to see that I’m in good company, my iPhone estimate is 32M.


    Don’t anthropomorphize computers, they hate that.

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    Posted: 28 November 2011 01:15 PM #1

    If we assume that Apple will be able to increase smart device share to 20% (3 percentage points in five years) then by 2016 Apple will need to have 1.24 billion iOS subscribers./quote]

    That number boggles the mind.

    If apple manages to have 1 billion passioned customers in 4 years, can you imagine what products they can introduce to get them spend another $200 a year.  That would be new income growth and does not take into account upgrades or new iOS members.

    Folks buy this stock while it is still cheap and you will thank me in 5 years.  I have been preaching this since early 2005 when the stock was at $70 pre split.