# Elliott Wave Analysis

Posted: 19 May 2012 11:08 PM #166

Phoebear611 - 20 May 2012 01:58 AM

...but holding off till we are on our way.  I can’t call a bottom and am perfectly fine catching it along the way up. So be it.

Sounds smart to me.

• #### Xphilos

Posted: 19 May 2012 11:48 PM #167

Phoebear611 - 20 May 2012 12:16 AM

Let’s assume 516.22 for sh*ts and giggles….which wave comes next?

This would align quite neatly with Squarepants Quarterly Multiple Theory:

omacvi - 15 May 2012 07:31 PM

One has to look at historical corrections to see we still have \$50 points to go. It is very simple. You look at the lowest p/e of last quarter and multiply it by our eps. at 12.58x41=515.  Once we drop below 537 get ready for 500.

Posted: 21 May 2012 09:29 AM #168

Mace is on Diablo hiatus.

Posted: 21 May 2012 07:27 PM #169

lovemyipad - 19 May 2012 09:34 PM

Mace, Mace, Mace!

Wave i =  \$354.24 to \$426.70
Wave ii =  \$426.70 to \$363.32
Wave iii = \$363.32 to \$644.00
Wave iv =  \$644.00 to (\$528.66 to \$516.22), approx. 38.2% length of iii *

Wave iv.a = \$644.00 to \$555.00, length = 89.00
Wave iv.b = \$555.00 to \$618.00, length = 63.00
Wave iv.c = \$618.00 to \$528.66, length = 89.34 *

* No confirmation iv.c is complete—could still descend to \$516.22—BUT wouldn’t the numbers be cool if we WERE done…then length of a = length of c, all nice and measured-move-like.

Also, “Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 61.8% of length of wave 3, norm is 38.2%.”  We’re in that ballpark.

Mace, Mace, Mace!  Pretty numbers!  Pretty numbers! :D

Wave i =  \$354.24 to \$426.70
Wave ii =  \$426.70 to \$363.32
Wave iii = \$363.32 to \$644.00
Wave iv =  \$644.00 to \$528.66, approx. 38.2% length of iii

Wave iv.a = \$644.00 to \$555.00, length = 89.00
Wave iv.b = \$555.00 to \$618.00, length = 63.00
Wave iv.c = \$618.00 to \$528.66, length = 89.34 *

* length of a = length of c, all nice and measured-move-like.

——————————————————————-
So now, the questions before us, which likely can’t be answered until we assess the strength of this up move: (Please don’t ask me to explain until I get a better understanding from Mace!  I am only a grasshopper!)

1) Did Wave iv complete?  (In which case we’ve started impulse Wave v.1)
2) Or was the observed abc retracement from “644 to 528” only Wave iv.a?  (In which case we’ve started Wave iv.b)

Weekly MACD-h makes me lean toward scenario #2.

• #### Red Shirted Ensign

Posted: 25 May 2012 08:29 PM #170

Henry at SI reponds to a question on Apple’s movements in Elliott Wave theory.

Maybe Mace or Lovey can explain what Henry is saying, as regards the more detailed discussions that have taken place here.

#### Signature

AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

Posted: 25 May 2012 09:29 PM #171

Red Shirted Ensign - 25 May 2012 11:29 PM

Henry at SI reponds to a question on Apple’s movements in Elliott Wave theory.

Maybe Mace or Lovey can explain what Henry is saying, as regards the more detailed discussions that have taken place here.

Thanks, Red!  Henry’s latter hypothesis is precisely the query I posed to Mace in my last post.  We shall see when Mace resurfaces from Diablo.

• #### Mav

Posted: 25 May 2012 11:28 PM #172

Please, he should be long done with Diablo 3 by now.

#### Signature

The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
Thanks, Steve.

• #### alice

Posted: 26 May 2012 01:53 AM #173

Mace, where are you?  What are you busy doing?

Posted: 26 May 2012 01:32 PM #174

Mace, come out come out wherever you are.  We need some more voodoo TA.

Posted: 29 May 2012 07:56 PM #175

Mace, are you avoiding your AFB buddies for bearish reasons?

Posted: 04 June 2012 07:15 PM #176

I miss Mace. :(

Today’s low of 548.50 is the 61.8% retracement of the move from 528 to 581.50 (machines do seem to like precision), the “norm” for a Wave 2.

Here’s my latest EW-in-progress:

Mace is the only one who would know if this makes any sense:

Wave v.i.1 from 528.66 to 581.50, length = 52.84
Wave v.i.2 from 581.50 to 548.50, length = 33.00 ~ .618 of v.i.1

Ummm…if v.i.2 is complete, projections for v.i.3 could be….uhhhh…

548.50 + length of (v.i.1 * 1.618) = 548.50 + 85.50 = 634

634.  Final answer.  Maybe.  Crud.  I miss Mace. :(

[ Edited: 04 June 2012 07:43 PM by lovemyipad ]

Posted: 18 June 2012 07:45 AM #177

This count is similar to Mace’s and mine:

AAPL EW

Note: he’s showing both the bullish and the bearish forecasts, two mutually exclusive either/or outcomes, bullish (top right) OR bearish (bottom right).  And YES, we can all enumerate the plethora of fundamental reasons to support UP!

• #### Red Shirted Ensign

Posted: 18 June 2012 10:21 AM #178

I’m becoming scared because I almost understood that chart…..

Who says osmosis does not work?

#### Signature

AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

Posted: 18 June 2012 12:36 PM #179

LOL, Red!  I know *exactly* what you mean!!!