The Apple 2.0 June Quarter Analyst Estimate Index

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 07:18 PM #16

    Mercel - 22 July 2012 10:07 PM

    Here’s a chart showing share price five days before and after earnings.  It’s noteworthy that AAPL has traded higher on the FIFTH day post earnings. 

    Speaking in purely historical terms, July earnings to my recollection has consistently a net plus for AAPL longs, even options longs.  Thanks for bringing up that data Mercel - unfortunately we can’t get intraday post-earnings day data that far back, but it paints quite a picture.

    The elephant in the room for this earnings announcement isn’t so much iPhone launch timing (Q3 2011 iPhone sales were sequentially higher after all) but iPhone demand curve.  As of the iPhone 4S at least, Tim Cook is determined to address demand as quickly as possible.  This is how we got the “anomaly” (soon to be the natural order of things?) of a new iOS product having a sales peak much earlier in its life cycle.  “Where do we go from here” is a question Apple has yet to answer for this new paradigm.

    That’s contributing to the uncertainty.


    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

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    Posted: 22 July 2012 09:28 PM #17

    Thanks for the FYI on currency hedging.

    I do wonder how much apple can increase iPhone demand with increased advertising - I’m still seeing an awful lot of TV & Print advertising for the 4S at present.


    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics