Analyst Cuts AAPL Over Delay of Rumored iPhone Launch

| Apple Stock Watch

Analyst lowers AAPL expectations on missed launch of rumored iPhoneApple will likely miss the target launch window for the rumors low-cost iPhone, according to Jeffries analyst Peter Misek, so he's lowering his target price for the company's stock from US$500 down to $420. He also suggests that Apple is falling out of favor as a handset maker and is following in the path of BlackBerry.

Along with missing unannounced launch windows for the rumored lower cost iPhone, Mr. Misek is worried that the also unannounced iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 won't boost weak sales and lost sales to oversized smartphone/mini tablet devices.

"The phones could have fingerprint technology and we believe Apple is trying to move the iPhone 6 launch to CQ1 to stop the hemorrhaging to phablets, but historically when handset makers fall out of favor (e.g., the RAZR, BlackBerry, HTC) they fall faster/further than expected," he said.

He also cut his first quarter iPhone sales estimates based on what he sees as continued weakness through information from parts suppliers. Mr. Misek now expects Apple will bring in US$35 million instead of $37.5 million in iPhone sales for the first calendar quarter of the year based on the company selling about 25 million units.

Mr. Misek said full-size iPad sales are weak and that Apple will switch to an IGZO display to reduce weight and revive the product, according to StreetInsider. He added that a Retina Display iPad mini is likely coming in the smaller tablet's next update.

He thinks that Apple could miss his pessimistic guidance, too, thanks to sales lost to the brand new Samsung Galaxy S4. The rumored low cost iPhone could be a weak seller thanks to pricing between $350 and $450, which would help keep Apple's revenue from climbing thanks to weak sales.

Assuming Mr. Misek's predictions are right, Apple can expect plenty of disappointed investors and analysts. Considering his projections are based primarily on rumors and unconfirmed reports, it may be too early to start talking about death spirals.

Mr. Misik's $420 target price comes with a "Hold" rating. Apple is currently trading at $430.92, down 6.95 (1.59%).

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11 Comments Leave Your Own

John Molloy

“Mr. Misek compares Appe’s current position to BlackBerry saying the iPhone has fallen out of favor with consumers.”

He’s obviously, like that guy yesterday, watched too many Samsung commercials.

jfbiii

He could very well be right about the stock price, though. Apple price has been disconnected from fundamentals for quite some time. A retina screen for the iPad Mini would ruin it, IMO. Not that it wouldn’t be pretty to look at but it would kill battery life.

Tom G

Time to reboot the old Apple Death Knell Watch. When they want to see blood, they shout ‘blood in the water’ and hope the sharks are too dumb to confirm before attacking.

mhikl

“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride” and Misek’s butt is firmly attached to a seat on a dreamer’s carousel.

When these lame predictors wake from their dreams, they seem to have no difficulty attaching fantasy to stupidity.

geoduck

Along with missing unannounced launch windows for the rumored lower cost iPhone,

The rumored low cost iPhone could be a weak seller thanks to pricing between $350 and $450, which would help keep Apple’s revenue from climbing thanks to weak sales.

So he’s downgrading AAPL on the nonexistent budget iPhone not being out yet AND on his belief that if it does appear it won’t well well anyway, based on prices he pulled out of thin air?

Priceless

Fletch

They like to build you up, but they LOVE to tear you down.

b9bot

My spin,  just anal-ist stupidity at its best. It’s been going on for the last 2 quarters now. There is no reason for all the negativity that these stupid people who call themselves experts have for what they are saying about Apple what so ever. There opinions have so far proved totally wrong, they don’t know what Apple is going to release next and I think that’s what makes them come up with all of there stupidity.

Eideard

Misek looks at the world and only sees WalMart and Chevrolet.

Lee Dronick

See this story http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/03/12/apple_share_buyback_if_apple_has_confidence_in_apple_it_should_buy_shares.html

CudaBoy

I think Mr. Misek is more correct than he is incorrect. What cracks me up is the mention of Death Knell @ $420. That’s some death for stock riding stupid high on “old”  expensive products. What do you call the idiots (you know, the “stupid people calling themselves experts”) predicting crazy high stock based on toys? I call them drones. I remember the drones shouting about $1000 = Bwuhaaa ha!!!  I would not be surprised if Apple settle into the 300’s next year unless some NEW device (or OS) comes out. If that is death, get used to it. I bought at $15 so I don’t care. What I do care about is Apple’s lack of
focus and corporate hubris. Apple was late to the party with small tabs; relying on “old” phones still lacking features competitors have, price points way out of whack with the competition, old design, old OS, and a lack of attention to the Pro computers.

Tgossard

I apologize @CudaBoy. “Apple Death Knell Monitor” refers to a clever device MacObserver’s Editors published (and which ran for years) to keep count of stock analysts, and other brain-dead types,  who predicted Apple’s imminent demise. I forget when ADKM was finally retired, but it was a choice entertainment for Mac users who stay tuned to MacObserver on a day by day basis. MacObserver should restart ADKM I’m suggesting because it looks like we’re in for another siege of doppelheads piling on AAPL hoping and wishing at last their predictions might yet come true.

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