Analyst Raises iPad Estimates, Ups AAPL Target to $265

| Apple Stock Watch

BMO analyst Keith Bachman has raised his iPad sales estimates for 2011 to 7.2 million units — a 30.09% increase — and he told clients that his estimates of 2.5 million units for 2010 may prove to be conservative. Based on this as well as increased Mac sales and the effects of an iPhone refresh this Summer, the analyst raised his price target for AAPL to US$265 per share, up from $250.

Fortune reported the research note to clients, and said that Mr. Bachman’s reasoning revolves around several contributing factors. For one thing, he thinks that Apple’s iPad could conceivably capture as much as 11% of the existing Wintel and Linux netbook market. At 40 million units in 2010, that would represent a sizable chunk of unit sales for Apple.

To that end, he noted that cheap netbooks running Microsoft Windows 7 take two minutes to boot up, and that people who pick up or try the iPad will likely consider it substantially more responsive.

He also said that Apple should be able to grab 35% to 40% of the tablet and e-reader market, calling it a cinch. His estimates are that the tablet market will be 17 to 22 million units in 2011 and that the e-reader market will see 5 million units in 2011.

All combined, he sees Apple moving 7.2 million iPads in 2011.

In the early afternoon trading session, shares in Apple Inc. are trading higher at $230.29 per share, higher by $0.92 (+0.40%), on moderate volume.

Comments

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

To that end, he noted that cheap netbooks running Microsoft Windows 7 take two minutes to boot up, and that people who pick up or try the iPad will likely consider it substantially more responsive.

Horse pucky on his benchmark.

Acer Aspire One ($300/Amazon)—> 3 seconds from regular sleep, 20 seconds from deep sleep. Windows Starter.

ASUS t91mt ($500/Amazon)—> 3 seconds from regular sleep. 15 seconds from deep sleep (it runs an SSD). Windows Home Ultimate.

Both are actually about as fast to usability (wireless network available) waking from deep sleep as my MBP is from lid closed sleep.

gslusher

Horse pucky on his benchmark.

Point well taken, but, to be technically correct, the article said, “boot up,” which would be starting from “OFF,” not deep sleep. The author seems to be correct, though not relevant to the way most people use netbooks.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

There is nothing technically correct about measuring something irrelevant grin. If you just measure something incorrectly, that calls your measuring skills into question. When you measure the wrong thing to make a point, it calls your judgment into question.

One thing that is not being measured by these analysts is backlash. I was surprised to learn this morning that not only did Apple pull WiFi sniffer apps from the App Store, it also made the apps unavailable to prior purchasers. So the $2 they spent is lost and not refunded. They did this to a prominent ZDNet columnist. You can read the details here. My theory is that it takes about 1-1/2 of these incidents to turn an Apple fan into someone who wants to see them punched down and kicked in the nuts. Apple belligerence just has to hit home with something you really like. For me, the South Park app a year ago was enough to see the dangers and empathize with others affected after that.

P.S. iPhone 3GS boot up… 31 seconds. Acer netbook (Window 7 Starter) boot to login screen.. 28 seconds.

Ryan

Che, we got it. You hate Apple, and the attention the company is receiving.  Why all the interest in the article

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