Barclay’s Capital Expects 22.5% Y/Y Mac Growth for Q2

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Barclay’s Capital analyst Ben Reitzes reiterated his forecast for 22.5% year-over-year growth for Apple’s Mac product line for the June quarter. In a research note to clients obtained by The Mac Observer, the analyst said that Apple’s iMac refresh in May goosed sales for the month, and that a softer comparison against June 2010 sales this year leaves him confident in his earlier forecasts.

Citing data from IDC, the analyst said that Apple saw 21% year-over-year Mac unit growth in May, up from the 9% growth the company saw in April. That compares to just 9.5% growth in May and 5% growth in April for the PC industry as a whole, meaning that Apple continues to make large gains in market share.

In 2010, Apple saw very large year-over-year Mac growth of 34% in May and 39% in April, making those two months “toucher compares” for 2011. In June of 2010, however, Apple’s Mac sales grew “just” 12%, making for an easier year-over-year comparison for 2011.

He also noted that wile Apple’s average selling price (ASP) for its Mac line slipped 1% to US$1,380, it remains head and shoulders above the ASPs for PCs of $724. All told, the analyst said that Apple has 32% of “value share” in the PC market because of its far higher prices.

Going forward, Mr. Reitzes said that Apple should continue to gain market share for the Mac, noting. “We believe that Apple will continue to gain share in Macs over the long-term even as the iPad grows.”

Mr. Reitzes maintained his $465 price target for Apple and an “Overweight” rating on the stock.

Apple’s shares closed higher on Tuesday, ending the day at $332.44, up $5.84 (+1.79%), on moderate volume of 11.9 million shares trading hands.

*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.  

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