Brad Cook Research firm Flurry on Tuesday reported its estimate of sales of the Google Nexus One smartphone through its first 74 days of availability, finding that it has lagged far behind the iPhone and the Motorola Droid with 135,000 units in circulation, compared to one million iPhones and 1.05 million Droids. However, Google brought the Nexus One to AT&T the same day; availability on another carrier (it launched on T-Mobile) could help boost those sales.
Flurry came to its conclusion based on its analytics technology, which is embedded in applications that have been downloaded to more than 80 percent of all iPhones and Android devices, the company said.
Peter Farago, author of the blog post discussing this latest news, said that the 74-day benchmark was chosen because that’s when Apple hit the one million milestone with the original iPhone. While the Nexus One’s 74th day is Friday, March 19, Flurry decided to publish the news now and forecast sales for the rest of the week.
Mr. Farago noted three reasons why he thinks the Droid has sold so well, particularly compared to the iPhone: consumer perception of smartphones changed during the two-and-a-half years between the launch of the first iPhone; Droid’s access to consumers is greater because Verizon has more subscribers than AT&T, at least when comparing devices’ launch dates; and Droid shipped right before the 2009 holiday selling period.
He concluded: “As Google and Apple continue to battle for the mobile marketplace, Google Nexus One may go down as a grand, failed experiment or one that ultimately helped Google learn something that will prove important in years to come. Apple’s more vertically integrated strategy vs. Google’s more open Android platform approach offer strengths and weaknesses that remind us of PC vs. Mac from the 1980’s.
“A key difference this time around is that Apple is enjoying much more 3rd party developer support, whose innovative applications push the limits of what the hardware can do. Ultimately, however, developers support hardware with the largest installed base first. For Android to make progress faster, from a sales perspective, it needs more Droids and fewer Nexus Ones going forward.”
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Nexus One is not old by any carriers. It is sold directly by Google, usually unsubsidized. When subsidized, it’s sold on a Googlized plan. Nexus One is one of several Android phones on the market. Most of the 65K sold per day are lower-end (e.g Motorola Droid) right now. Google probably also anticipated that Nexus One was lawsuit bait, and have been deliberately low key in the rollout and promotion.
I think slow and steady will win this race for the #3 smart phone platform position. Ultimately, the iPhone will be the #4 platform in this space with about 5% market share. Apple will be unable to sue for market share, because the backlash will just be twice as heavy. Fortunately for Apple, revenue on 5% 2 years out will probably exceed revenue on 25% today.
With its release for AT&T 3G today, Nexus One may pick up some steam as a path forward for unthrilled iPhone users. For example, I finally have a path out of my iPhone that doesn’t screw up my family plan contract. I’ll probably pick one up in a month or so, after the early reviews are in and there are no serious hiccups. I’ll probably alternate daily between my iPhone and a Nexus One for another couple of months, and I’ll make an informed decision about whether the open Nexus One should be my everyday phone. My Mom on the other hand likes her iPhone. She can keep it and be happy.