Verizon iPhone Sales Hint at Missed Estimates

| Apple Stock Watch

Verizon announced during its first fiscal quarter earnings report on Thursday that it activated 4 million iPhones, which comes in above Wells Fargo analyst Maynard Um's 3.5 million unit target. The cell service provider's activations were down compared to last quarter, but are up year over year. Still, Apple's quarterly iPhone numbers may come in below expectations, leaving investors unhappy.

Verizon's quarterly iPhone activations could hint at sales missing analyst extimatesVerizon's quarterly iPhone activations could hint at sales missing analyst extimates

Mr. Um is expecting Apple to report 38.7 million iPhones sold for the quarter when it hosts its own earnings report next week. He stated,

The 4 million unit activations suggest Verizon will account for roughly 10.3 percent of our total iPhone units of 38.7 million. Given Verizon on average has accounted for 11.1 percent of Apple's quarterly iPhone unit sales in the last five quarters, we see potential for slight risk to our current quarter iPhone estimate.

Assuming Verizon's iPhone activations account for the same percentage as they have in previous quarters, however, Apple's iPhone numbers could come between 30.8 million and 36 million units.

Mr. Um noted that Apple's smartphone sales have grown year over year at 25 percent while the rest of the industry has grown at about 3 percent, while Verizon's total smartphone activations were down 27 percent compared to last quarter. Based on that, Mr. Um speculated that lower iPhone activations were due to an lull in overall smartphone sales and not Apple-specific.

Regardless of the iPhone figures Apple announces on April 23, Mr. Um sees an upswing in sales later this year. "We expect an acceleration in the back half of the calendar year with significant new product releases and iPhone 4S subscribers becoming eligible for upgrades," he said.

Mr. Um has a $600 to $630 12-month target range for Apple's stock, and an Market Weight rating. Apple is currently trading at $392.13, up 0.08 (0.02%).

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Verizon's iPhone sales were lower quater-over-quarter, but up year-over-year. With just the one data point to work with so far, it's hard to accurately estimate Apple's quarterly sales numbers, but that won't stop analysts and investors from trying. Be ready for doom-and-gloom reports if Apple doesn't beat analyst expectations next week.

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The anal-ists have already made up there mind about Apple last quarter.
Apparently they are holding Apple’s stock hostage until Apple gives them more pay out for the savings that Apple has. So they will continue to sell off the stock no matter what the earnings, forecast, news about Apple is. This is a form of business blackmail in my opinion. Apple as a company has done better than any company out there and yet there stock has been beaten on over and over with no explanation. Just petty complaints about not being paid enough dividends. The company is very strong and yet they are coming out with forecasts like it was 1993 all over again. Apple is in another galaxy compared to what they make Apple sound like. This is the analysts blackmail, pay us more dividends or will devalue your stock and company like no tomorrow. It doesn’t matter what Tim Cook does or says, or what the company forecasts or makes. The anal-ists have made up there minds on how they will force more money out of Apple’s bank accounts or force Apple out of the market. I don’t believe in the history of the market has one company been devalued so much without a real reason then Apple has in so little time. There really should be some kind of federal investigation into foul play that seems to be brewing here against Apple in my opinion.


Given that last quarter was the Christmas quarter, (a quarter that everyones ships rise with that tide) and sales are up year over year for this quarter, only an idiot would see this as negative.


It would be nice if these types of stories, which I wish weren’t reported on this site, would at least 1) point out Apple’s own guidance, and 2) mention that Apple revised its way of giving guidance by providing a low and high range of estimates. For this Quarter, it is 41 to 43 billion in gross revenue. I also wish people would fault the so called analyst when he or she estimates wrong not the company who satisfies or beats its own heightened year over year guidance. In my view, reading these types of stories really detract from the primary focus of the Site. It also seems a bit hypocritical to remove the old financial forum dedicated to this type of thing, only to keep reporting these types of so called stories.


His 3.5 million estimate that Apple beat accounts for 9% of his total estimate for the quarter. Now he pulls up the 11.1% figure for comparison?

His total estimate should have been 31.5 million according to his current rational of using 11.5%.


Dave - not only was last quarter the Christmas quarter, it was intro-time for iPhone 5.

A double whammy.


i wount new accunt

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