Dave,

You make some interesting points.  However, I would like your reaction to this: I like a 17” laptop for the real estate.  This is due to my having several applications open at one time.  How do you see the iPad taking this space over?  Is this even possible?  If it is not running OS X, and I notice you say “That’s why Mac OS X isn’t the iPad’s OS.”  Why would I want to use something which does not give me the same functionality.  You also state that “It will take a few years for the tablet to mature into what Apple’s target customers need”, but who exactly are those target customers?

I like the iPad, and the idea that I can “take it with me” easier then a laptop, however, it will not replace my 17” anytime soon.  Thoughts?

It will take a few years for the tablet to mature into what Apple’s target customers need

I disagree. I don’t think the geeks (the ones who are moaning about it’s lack of features) are the target audience here.

The target audience are ordinary people (99.9% of the population) who just want it to do the basics without any complication.

These last few weeks, I’ve been peddling the following scenario like a snake oil salesman.  My apologies to those who’ve read this before and are sick of it:

iPhoneOS and MacOS will merge in function if not in code base.
When the silicon becomes powerful enough, the iPhone form factor will become the only computer you will ever need.
It’s like a regular but more powerful mobile computer when you’re up and about.
At home, you plug it in (wirelessly if you wish) to the keyboard, monitor and perhaps hard drive and you do your large-screen computing - video editing, spread sheets, word processing etc.
You can buy a mobile console that boasts a screen and a keyboard; you slide the iPhone-sized CPU in its compartment and there’s your laptop.  Large screen computing on the road.
You don’t need to purchase a desktop or laptop.  Bad news for Microsoft especially if WinMo7 doesn’t catch on.

Notice, iWork on the iPad is Apple’s initial foray into giving iPhoneOS some large-screen capabilities.

Interesting but WRONGGGGG!!!
This will be the computer for the rest of them the ones who got left behind. They number more than a billion.
Affordability.
Usefulness.
Stability
Ease of use.

All these simple things add up to a killer appliance.
And that is what is missing today.
Power users and work users are done. They are history. Why?
Who needs a more powerful MS Office? Dreamweaver? Flash? Accounts package? Database? etc etc. Probably less than 500,000 people. In total!!!
There is limited sales potential there and upgrade resistance is rising.

The new opportunity are the computer virgins. A billion+ of them.

Now that’s an opportunity.

You should know all this sitting up there in the Crow’s Nest.

That’s crazy, Dave - I was actually wondering about this last year. When they dropped the prices of the pro laptops in June and had the one lingering MacBook, it almost seemed as if they might forego the usual modest hardware upgrades and repackage their base model portable as an all new form factor.

I have to disagree with those who don’t believe that the full-blown OS X would work on a tablet - though I’d have to concede that the touch interface would need to mature some more, and we’d probably need beefier hardware specs to do anything productive. Right now it’s hard for me to imagine the current UI to offer you much in the way of productivity that would compare to your basic laptop. At the very least, without any ability to multitask and being able to work with files in an hierarchal directory system (let alone certain functions such as drag & drop), it’ll never happen.

I think in the near term, the iPad may end up replacing the MacBook line, while the MacBook Pro soldiers on until the iPad Pro shows up.

Lenovo IdeaPad U1 Hybrid hands-on and impressions http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/05/lenovo-ideapad-u1-hybrid-hands-on-and-impressions/

The iPad is for the ordinary user, not for the IT expert or knowledge worker.  That is why I doubt that Apple will ever make the iPad a general purpose computer with all the complexity that implies.  For those experts, like Mr. Hamilton, if there is ever an iPad that suits their needs, it will be another SKU with a much greater range of features and capabilities that is suitable for their work, but at the price of much greater complexity and greater price, as it exposes to their use the file system, multitasks, and has the power that they need.  Or Apple may simply provide the expert with Macs or with some other form factor that incorporates advanced technology and Apple’s innovation, and the ability to install software from any source. 

The other iPads for the rest of us won’t have or need those capabilities and will quite likely remain a closed platform for reasons of maintaining simplicity, security, reliability, and elegance of operation and design.

Wouldn’t it be nice to see a BackToMyMac App?

When I need to do something more extensive, Virtual screen my main PC do the work put it on my mobile me iDisk and Voilà!

The transparent (ok, mostly transparent) laptop screen at CES gets me thinking, what about a device that folds like a laptop but has a see through screen (basically looks like a piece of glass), effectively a screen you can see from both sides, so when it’s shut it’s a thin tablet, but just unfold it to use a real keyboard. Seems less clunky than those twist-and-fold hybrids. Of course the base still has to be heavy enough not to tip over when its open, so maybe not.

I don’t think it will replace the MacBook line anytime soon, but in the long term future (as Dave said). Eventually, we’ll see the applications we use on a Mac all be ported to the iPad, especially given that developers for one are pretty much instantly devs for the other. The platforms in code are eerily similar, the large differences are for the UI.

Why would I want to use something which does not give me the same functionality.  You also state that “It will take a few years for the tablet to mature into what Apple’s target customers need”, but who exactly are those target customers?

The target audience that Dave speaks of I think is meant to be general computer users/all computer users, to the point where you could buy an iPad instead of a MacBook. And the idea is that the functionality you want will gradually evolve. IMO.

@Nemo… The next book I write is going to be called “The Phallicy of the Ordinary User”. Pick anyone in your office and sit down with them and watch what they do with their computer during the day. Even the ones stifled by Citrix servers, block lists, and flash drives that have been glued shut. These ordinary users are the most creative people you will ever meet. The implicit demeaning of their capabilities and the tasks they want to do is by far the biggest casualty of this iPad debacle.

If Apple is making Mr. Hamilton’s iPad. This probably it:  http://www.techcrunch.com/2010/02/01/apple-tablet-os-x-ipad/  This is a full, general purpose computer that runs OS X but that uses the iPad form.

Dear Bosco:  We are creative in our work as lawyers, not as computer geeks.  There are times when we use more advanced capabilities to do presentations for clients or at trial, but we have support personnel to help us with that. Though I personally like to be able to do the presentations myself, I have more computing chops than even some of our younger lawyers, having almost become a programmers some thirty years ago.  For the most part our lawyers and support staff would prefer to simply talk to the computer, like Mr. Spock, and have it do what they want, with their creativity being reserved for their billable time.

I work with the public every day in a large urban library. Most are there to write a letter, play games, look at porn, watch videos, fill out a resume online, find a map to Aunt Lucy’s house, go to MySpace, get their W2s, look at email and pictures or shop.

An iPad would suit them very nicely, especially with the touch screen. You might be surprised at how many of them touch the screen anyway. “That one?” they ask and touch the icon, then have to struggle to get the curser there. How much simpler if they just touched an icon and it opened. I’m not saying I think that laptops need to go away. I’m just saying there are a lot of people who don’t need that much computer and would rather interact with something with an easier interface.

I see the iPad replacing my laptop.  Thinking of what I do on personal and work travel; e-mail, presenting at conferences and customers, writing and creating short documents, taking notes, watching movies, listening to music, surfing the web; the iPad can do it all.  Starting with the built in applications along with the iWork suite some of the applications from the iPhone and those that will be coming new to the iPad like OmniGraffle make this a work system as well as a consumer system.  The heavy work can be done at home or at work with a desktop. 

I live in a family with 4 laptops, 1 iMac, and a new Mac Mini (our future family media server).  We are already planning on getting at least 4 iPads. 

For me, my MacBook Pro with a 22” external monitor on my desktop will be replaced by one of the new big iMacs and an iPad. 

I can see that in a couple of years, the family will have one iMac and maybe a 2nd iMac or Mac Pro (two computer animators / graphic design types in the family) and an iPad for each of us.  No more laptops. 

For the programming I do.  Yes, I’m a computer professional with a MS in software engineering and a PhD in computer architecture, the desktop will work fine.  With VNC and telnet/csh apps to get back to the desktop and the always connected nature of the iPad travel will be a lot easier than lugging a laptop. 

Especially when traveling in coach where legroom is optional.

Dave - It’s not, “not hardly,” which is the opposite of what you meant.  “Hardly” alone would suffice.

@Bosco: Your next book, as you are titling it “The Phallicy of the Ordinary User” doesn’t sound like it has anything to do with computers. Kama Sutra, anyone?