The global smartphone market is on track to grow 1% in 2025, with iOS leading the recovery, according to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC). The revision marks a turnaround from May, when IDC cut its projection to 0.6% from 2.6% earlier in the year. Accelerated iOS growth of 3.9% has helped restore momentum, pushing expected worldwide shipments to 1.24 billion units.
IDC attributes the revised outlook to stronger-than-expected replacement demand, despite ongoing economic pressure. Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said tariff volatility now acts as “background noise” for most vendors. She emphasized that manufacturers must continue diversifying production to meet demand, which remains healthy in several regions.
The report highlights regional differences. IDC projects 3.6% growth in the U.S., 6.5% in the Middle East and Africa, and 0.8% in Asia Pacific excluding China. China, by contrast, will see a 1% decline, as government subsidies fade and economic challenges weigh on demand. Popal noted that growth in other regions will help offset China’s slowdown.
AI and Foldables
IDC also expects vendors to focus on value rather than volume. Average selling prices are forecast to climb 5% this year, with overall market value rising 6%. The push comes from investment in slimmer designs, foldable devices, stronger cameras, and the integration of generative AI features.
Citing the report, Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC, said more than 370 million smartphones with on-device generative AI will ship globally in 2025, accounting for 30% of the market. By 2029, that share could surpass 70% as features expand beyond premium devices and move into the mid-range segment.
IDC also sees foldable phones gaining ground, though Apple is absent from its list of drivers despite ongoing speculation about a foldable iPhone. Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of Client Devices at IDC, said foldables are expected to grow 6% year-over-year in 2025, up from 4% in 2024, before climbing to 11% in 2027. Even so, IDC forecasts they will represent less than 3% of shipments by 2029.
The broader market, IDC concludes, will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% between 2024 and 2029. While economic uncertainty persists, Apple’s stronger iOS performance and the rise of new technologies give 2025 a more positive trajectory than analysts expected just months ago.
