The Back Page - Apple Death Knell #43: Apple Must Change, Or Die
by - September 16th, 2004
"If Apple doesn't change its ways, the company simply won't survive." This is the latest Apple Death Knell to hit the Internet, this one courtesy of Paul "Reality Check" Thurrott in his column at Connected Home Magazine.
I started the Apple Death Knell Counter simply because I wished for their to be a specific chronicle of all the numbnuts who consistently predict Apple's impending death. As we have been doing this for a couple of years, however, I have also found myself simply fascinated by the people saying these things. It's just amazing how people can maneuver and posture themselves in their efforts to interpret Apple's success as evidence of the company's impending corporate suicide, especially since the release of the iPod.
There is seriously a dissertation waiting to be written about this subject, be it in the field of psychology, business, communications, or philosophy.
Paul Thurrott's latest thing to be wrong about is how Apple's closed and limited iPod/iTunes combo is going to kill the company in the face of overwhelming choice and options available from Microsoft's "open" Windows Media Player (WMP) platform.
I've already deconstructed these arguments on other occasions. Microsoft's WMP isn't open, it's licensable. Apple's iTunes DRM scheme is also not open, but Apple isn't licensing it, at least not to iTunes and iPod competitors. If one wants to argue the merits of that, fine, but don't call WMP "open."
As for Apple getting clobbered by all this choice available to consumers, there's no evidence to support that. Apple's market share in both downloads and music players is growing, not shrinking, and it's Microsoft and its licensees who are left scrambling.
Not so, says Mr. Thurrott. The Dell DJ is cheaper and has a longer battery life. Rio's Carbon offers 5 GB of storage (compared to the iPod mini's 4 GB), and has a longer battery life. It's smaller, too. Wal-mart's online music store is cheaper than the iTunes Music Store. All of this choice, according to Mr. Thurrott, means that consumers are going to eventually dump Apple and go Microsoft.
This leads him to issue the Death Knell:
Apple's short-term success is very real and quite admirable, but the company's inability to see coming trends in video, subscription content, and interoperability suggests that Apple is repeating the mistakes of the past. In the 1980s, the Mac held an early lead over the PC but was quickly buried after the industry standardized on a common Microsoft technology. Today, that series of events is repeating itself, and online music services -- and to a greater degree, the digital delivery of all media types -- is very much at a nascent stage. If Apple doesn't change its ways, the company simply won't survive.
Blah blah blah. There's a lot more about how DRM is good (it figures that Paul Thurrott would say that DRM is a good thing), and how people really want to rent their music. He also goes on a bit about how Apple is royally screwing up by not making a video iPod, and he backs this up by pointing out that he watched a movie on a Portable Media Center on an airplane.
His analysis is so childishly crude, it hardly needs to be deconstructed, but I'll make a few points.
The Dell DJ doesn't sell well because its interface is terrible. The same goes for all of Rio's product line, Sony's horrid little new Walkman, Creative's line, and all the other iPod competitors. People love using the iPod because it is a pleasure to use. That's why cheaper and longer battery life hasn't helped the other players out there.
Wal-mart's cheap online service is likewise a horror to use, and all of the other services are hardly better. Microsoft's service might come closer in terms of ease of use, but it can't touch iTunes. iTunes is easy to use, has a number of cool features, has more songs than any other service, is consistent, and "it just works," just as all Apple products "just work."
More importantly, unlike the Mac of old, iTunes and iPod are available to Windows users, making things like "choice" even more of a non-issue. It also makes comparisons to Apple's decision not to license the Mac irrelevant.
The biggest thing making Paul Thurrott's comments look even more foolish is the fact that Apple is gaining strength. The iPod continues to gain market share, and iTunes downloads are doing the same.
As for the issue of a video iPod, I think it is painfully obvious that Apple will not release a video iPod unless and until it makes sense to do so. If and when that happens, Apple will enter the market with a device that makes sense, is easy to use, and will be a must-have. Furthermore, I will state that the market for these devices will lie stagnant unless and until Apple enters that market, and that it will explode after, and only after, Apple does release a product.
Again, it's weird to see the sort of mental gymnastics that people like Paul Thurrott go through to arrive at such erroneous conclusions. In fact, we should probably give him a gold medal for mental gymnastics. (Un)Fortunately for him, I'll be preserving this in the Apple Death Knell Counter for all to see.
began using Apple computers in 1983 in a high school BASIC programming class. He started using Macs in 1990 when the Kinko's guy taught him how to use Aldus PageMaker, finally buying a Power Computing Power 100 in 1995. Today, Bryan is the Editor of The Mac Observer, and has contributed to the print versions of MacAddict and MacFormat (UK).
You can send your comments directly to him, or you can also post your comments below.
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Observer Comments
Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:45 pm Subject: Updated counter
Bryan,
You need to update the counter on the index page. It is still at 41. Wouldn't want anybody to think Apple wasn't really dying!
It would be interesting for someone to write a similar article about Microsoft dying if it doesn't change it's ways. Especially since we don't actually see their marketshare increasing in any market. The OS market is ever-so-slowly eroding as Linux and OSX start to make inroads. Once at the top, there is only one direction to go...
I wish this guy would take his next paycheck and buy a clue. How many times can you be wrong before you realize that you just don't know what you are talking about. I mean, has he evr gotten anything about Apple right? By the same token, why do we give him notice at all. He is an ID 10 T and that will never change.
Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:25 pm Subject:
Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:33 pm Subject: Paul "Reality Check" Thurrott
Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:02 pm Subject: Apple's Non Choice - One Music Store & One Player
Thu Sep 16, 2004 8:22 pm Subject: Re: Apple's Non Choice - One Music Store & One Player
QuoteRealityCheck wrote:
Too bad Bryan didn't seem to get the main point. Apple's solution means using only one online music store and only one brand of music player. With MS consumers can download music from an ever going list of online music stores and have many brands of music players to choose from, including low cost flash players.
It's the same mistake that Sony did with the Betamax, and Apple did with the Mac, failure to license the format. Apple's going to lose this format war as well.
It is you who doesn't get it. Apple has the lead in both music downloads and in sales of players. It also has the largest selection of music of all of the sites. If/when that changes, Apple will most likely look at different licensing, from licensing FairPlay to others all the way to supporting the MS DRM format. However, at this point, it is the others who do not support the industry leader in portable music (the iPod).
iTunes (the software) supports players other than the iPod. Music from iTMS can be converted to support any other player by "burn and re-rip". Not optimal, but certainly easy.
If a site is using JANUS, then older players aren't likely to be compatible. Can you burn and re-rip to strip off the DRM? Not likely.
But then, using facts in a debate with you is pointless. Sorry to waste everybody's time.
QuoteRealityCheck wrote:
Too bad Bryan didn't seem to get the main point. Apple's solution means using only one online music store and only one brand of music player. With MS consumers can download music from an ever going list of online music stores and have many brands of music players to choose from, including low cost flash players.
It's the same mistake that Sony did with the Betamax, and Apple did with the Mac, failure to license the format. Apple's going to lose this format war as well.
Having iTunes installed on a Mac doesn't stop us from downloading music from sources other than the iTunes Music Store. You can use a browser, FTP or some other file transfer program.
While I agree with Paul that there are more WMA compatible devices available (Car audio, CD-players, DVD players, Flash players), there are iPod accessories that allow you to dock the iPod with your car or with boom-box speakers which mitigate the limitations of AAC compatible systems. While apple may never capture the low-end market of CD-based players and Flash-based players, it continues to compete favorably in the market with all the other audio jukeboxes.
As for choice of music stores, Reality Check continually ignores the fact that there are several stores that are fully compatible with iTunes and the iPod, offering music downloads in the MP3 format: Bleep.com, Audiolunchbox.com, emusic.com, and Magnatune.com. Being able to use music from 5 different stores certainly seems like choice to me.
Of course, since I've made that argument MULTIPLE TIMES BY NOW, I can only assume Reality Check is willfully ignorant of this fact, and continues to lie like a rug so he can sound like an analyst instead of merely sounding anal.
Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:44 am Subject: Re: Apple's Non Choice - One Music Store & One Player
QuoteRealityCheck wrote:
Too bad Bryan didn't seem to get the main point. Apple's solution means using only one online music store and only one brand of music player. With MS consumers can download music from an ever going list of online music stores and have many brands of music players to choose from, including low cost flash players.
It's the same mistake that Sony did with the Betamax, and Apple did with the Mac, failure to license the format. Apple's going to lose this format war as well.
As evidenced above and similar to the way a cow chews its own cud, forum trolls take in source data such as news reports and spit it back out in unrecognizable forms that are unseemly to the viewer.
Please ignore the trolls. They thrive only on their own regurgitation. Like cows produce the polluting gas methane as the regurgitated food passes out of their system, the product of a troll’s regurgitation is at least equally unpleasant and surpasses the impact of a cow’s gas production in polluting the environment.
Wow. DT actually has a ready-made response for anyone who feeds the trolls! As for the issue at hand, I think this is pretty pathetic. His arguments for the use of portable video players are laughably bad. Portable DVD players have been around for years now, and those arent exaclty selling like iPods, are they?
BTW, I vote we just start calling RC "Paul", whether he is or not.
QuoteAFCdtLoeb wrote:
BTW, I vote we just start calling RC "Paul", whether he is or not.
I say we take it a bit further and borrow some insight. I think from now on we should refer to the trolls as FOPs, as in "Friends Of Paul" which would include our current troll and any future trolls. Then we wouldn't have to mention any of them by name and the moniker seems appropriate since they seem "addicted" to trolling.
Everything he writes is soooo well written and enjoyable.
Here is what I think of price shopping. It's all about confidence! If Sony (or Dull or any other iPod competitor) believed they had the best product they could possibly produce they wouldn't try to beat iPod in price, they may actually be higher. Apple was sure they had a hit when they introduced the Mini so they weren't afraid to price it just under the bottom iPod which had (at the time) three times the capacity. I thought NO WAY. It's too expensive for the capacity. I was sure that it was going to fail. I think that because design is so subjective, it is rarely given any weight in any overall package. But design has to be why the mini is sooo successful. Apple continually holds the intangible cards because so many other manufacturer almost ignore design. This is why sometimes Apple seems almost magical to certain people, their design speaks to many people on a level that Sony will NEVER reach and Dell cannot.
Can Dell or Sony make a better iPod?
Overall? NO WAY!!
What else is there to do? Trying to beat Apple in price is WAAAAAAAY easier than beating them in user experience. Not because they are so "overpriced" but because Apple has set such a high standard for digital music.
From the above piece, as quoting the original column,
QuoteIn the 1980s, the Mac held an early lead over the PC but
Let me just say What???. The Mac never "held the early lead", as long as you are referring to market numbers and not elegance. The Apple ][ may have been the premier home computer at one time, but Macintosh, preceded by more than a year by the IBM PC, while it may have showed impressively, never out-sold PCs. So, this non-sense about blowing the early lead is just that: pure speculation for which comparison data are not available.
The DVD players have been on the market for a long time are are a lot cheaper than any MS video player you'll see with the same display size.
Other important features of the current products:
Ultra fast loading of movies. open the cover, put DVD in, close the cover.
No MS based compression. All data held in original DVD format.
Works for all users, regardless of type of computer they own. No computer interfaces/integration software required. Also, this system will not require any HD space in order to download.
Excellent data compatibility. The same DVDs that work with this device can also be inserted in DVD equipped notebooks or desktops without a need to convert, compress or pay for additional software. Very rapid data transfer for the whole file - open player, remove DVD, put into computer.
Simple to use. Even RC could figure it out, if given enough time.
Now MS is going to push something that will have a cost that is multiples of the current product and provide no additional benefit. Little Billie is probably staying up late at night thinking about how he will capture this fantastic market.
Quotemloader wrote:
Here is what I think of price shopping. It's all about confidence! If Sony (or Dull or any other iPod competitor) believed they had the best product they could possibly produce they wouldn't try to beat iPod in price, they may actually be higher.
What else is there to do? Trying to beat Apple in price is WAAAAAAAY easier than beating them in user experience. Not because they are so "overpriced" but because Apple has set such a high standard for digital music.
Ummmm... I THINK Sony's (nameless) ATRAC player IS actually priced higher than the iPod? (Or the model it's competiting against, anyway)? I maybe wrong...
Fri Sep 17, 2004 10:42 am Subject: Benefit of Experience
After poking around in the archives of Thurrott's articles, I came across his review of OS 10.1 from November, 2001. Amost three years ago, he gushed:
" Apple iTunes is a joy to use, and I wish an application of its simplicity was available on the PC in place of the bloated, slow Media Player for Windows XP. "
Other gems (from an August 2002 audible.com review). "I downloaded the three selections into iTunes 3 under Mac OS X and experimented with them briefly, then copied them to my iPod and headed off to my Seattle business trip. " Yes, foks, he's owned "...Apple's excellent portable audio player, the iPod..." for over two years now! And since iTunes for Windows wasn't available until October 2003, Paul obviously owned a Mac as well in order to use his iPod and iTunes!
So...after reviewing many of his past articles, I have serious doubts that Paul Therrott is actually RC. Paul's opinions may be obtuse and ill-conceived, but he DOES have experience using Macs, which obviously RC does not. There's a difference between someone who is truly clueless (RC) and one who is merely delusional (PT). What they share is the compulsion to keep typing inflamatory statements, knowing they'll piss off the Apple community and draw attention to themselves.
-Ken P
PS: Fairly dominant on Connected Home's site are prominent Napster ads, so draw your own conclusions as to the reason for his recent change of heart about all things Apple.
Dollar per MB, the iPod is hard to beat. In terms of VERSATILITY,i.e. portable firewire drive for data storage/transfer in addition to being an excellent music player, I have seen no other player that comes close to the iPod (or the mini for that matter). I download music form many sources and have NO problem using them on my iPod. ALL of the music I have purchased can be converted to a universally accepted mp3 format and played on my computer, another player, my car's CD player, my home stereo, whatever. Sorry, but the "Apple is too closed and too expensive" argument just does NOT hold water under ANY scrutiny.
Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:03 pm Subject: Paul in the past, pt 2
More poking into the Connected Home archives:
A February 2003 article reveals that PT owned an iBook at the time: " I use an Apple Computer iBook almost exclusively to watch DVD movies because of its excellent battery life and light weight." He mentions in several other articles that he is a frequent business traveller, so watching movies is a big requirement for him.
His mistake in this article is assuming that Apple will fail because he perceives that MOST other people have a lifestyle just like HIS! Hello.. not many of us neeeeeeed a portable DVP; a fact made obvious by lackluster portable DVD player sales. There's a big difference btw, between letting a kid watch a DVD player built into a minivan and handing him a $500 DV player or a $250 portable DVD player.
Little screen or not, if the GameBoy cost that much, we wouldn't be buying them for our little kids either, and THAT market would be a small one too! Of course, when someone DOES come out (eventually) with a tiny PVP device that can hold "Finding Nemo IV" in it priced under 100 bucks, THEN we'll be talking about how much better Apple's new "vPod" is at $150! It's only a matter of time....
BTW, speaking of GameBoy, is Apple "repeating the mistakes of the past" because it didn't release a gaming console either? The PVP market is just ONE of many consumer elecronics categories that Apple COULD (and still might) explore, but their success or failure is not dependant on that particular category, despite Paul Therrott prediction.
Remember that Apple has already dabbled in several CE markets-- laser printers, digital camera and PDAs (for better or worse). And somehow they also survived the past 2 decades without producing a single Apple-branded VCR, cordless telephone or a boom box... all of which are/were HUGE categories. And Apple's been burned once too often for being too far ahead of the curve (or too early to the party?), so forgive them for being cautious when choosing what consumer electronics categories they want to enter next.
You only have to look at Gateway's recent retreat from the television market to know that diversification of your product line is a risky proposition. Apple certainly is reaping the rewards from the success of the iPod, but that doesn't mean they should blindly go wherever clueless pundits tell them too.
Ken P
Stop and consider: Microsoft is the only non-Unix based OS left in the world. Intel is the only CPU maker without a viable 64 bit CPU for PCs. Remember what happens in the computer business to proprietary systems the paint themselves into a corner?
Obi Wan, hired by Intel to do damage control, waves two fingers and intones: "You don't *need* a 64 bit system."
Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:12 pm Subject: Liar, liar, pants on fire
Just to show how disingenuous he is, this line:
"I guess Steve [Jobs]'s kids just listen to Bach and Mozart. But mine, they want to watch Finding Nemo. I don't know who made that, but it's really a neat movie. "
What a strange man.
When he's Paul Thurrott, he's a troll. When he turns up on TMO (are other Mac sites infested with him?) as Reality Check [sic] he's a troll.
Bryan was right to include him in the Death Knell. Anybody who places any credence from anything he says about Macs is mistaken; similarly anybody who does the same for his MS pieces should take them with a grain of salt.
"With MS consumers can download music from an ever going list of online music stores and have many brands of music players to choose from, including low cost flash players."
real tried a huge "freedom of choice" campaign and cut their price IN HALF and even had an ipod compatible service and STILL didn't win over more than 3 million downloads. doesn't this give you an idea about how much people really like itunes? not just macheads...
flash players arent low cost. they are low value, and you can fill them up with only a few CDs. even if these music stores support flash players, in essense how are they going to sell tons of songs when the user can only fit 100 songs on a player (yes there are flash players with more space but their price is comparable to the ipod mini)
the difference between betamax and ipod is that ipod playys the most popular formats - mp3, ripped CD in a choice of a variety of formats, and aac. the least popular format is wmv. notice how windows media player 10 gave in and added mp3 ripping support (might i add quite crippled at that, only being able to set it at a few preset bitrates and without vbr)
Fri Sep 17, 2004 4:53 pm Subject: the difference between the iPod & betamax . . .
Thurrott needs to do a little research before he spouts that 'repeating the mistakes of the past' nonsense. The Mac has never had a larger marketshare than the PC. John Gruber wrote a superb article at DaringFireball.net called 'The Art of the Parlay,' in which he excellently deconstructs that topic. It's a very worthwhile read.
http://daringfireball.net/2004/08/parlay
Thu Nov 04, 2004 3:14 pm Subject: choices in video players
the majority of airplane flights i go on are about 4 hours in length
if i really want to watch a movie, then i think i will just pull out my 14" iBook and watch a movie
a 14" screen versus a 2" screen... i have made my choice
that and my iBook is optimized for about 5 hours of battery life, so i have no battery problems
There already is an iPod Movie... Its called the iBook and PowerBook lines
TRO
Fri May 27, 2005 9:47 am Subject:
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