The Mac Observer

Analyst: 77% of iPhone 4 Are Upgraders

TMO Talk (17)

Some 77 percent of customers buying iPhones on iPhone 4 launch day were upgrading from earlier models, according to a survey conducted by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. In comparison, 38 percent of iPhone buyers in 2008, and 56 percent in 2009, where upgraders, according to AllThingsD.

“Apple is effectively building a recurring revenue stream, where iPhone users pay on average US$200 a year to stay current with the latest phone,” Mr. Munster said.

He added, “While its true that iPhone 4 is a more significant feature upgrade compared to the 3GS, and we expect this upgrade rate to decline next year, Apple has in three years built brand loyalty in the phone market that compels users to upgrade to the latest version and wait in line for one to six hours to pick up their iPhone.”

Along with its loyal customers, Apple seems to still be drawing new iPhone users into the fold. Based on Mr. Munster’s estimates, 16 percent of iPhone buyers this year have switched to AT&T just for the combination iPod and smartphone.

In comparison, 28 percent of iPhone buyers in 2009 were new to AT&T. That suggests, according to Mr. Munster, that it’s time for Apple to add a second U.S. iPhone carrier.

Mr. Munster is estimating that Apple will sell between 1.0 and 1.5 million iPhone 4 units, including pre-sales, during the first three days of availability. That number, while high, ultimately doesn’t matter, he said, because “Apple is tapping into the global consumer spending sweet spot, mobile, and as a result iPhone numbers are going higher in the coming years.”

Apple is currently trading at $266.02, down 2.98 (-1.11%).

Post A Comment or Log-in. Need an account? Register here.

7 Observer Comments

And that 77% are selling their older iPhones to people who are most likely NEW users. I know I am. A friend’s son wants my iPhone 3G and is willing to pay for it. It will give them 3 iPhones for 4 people. (his poor dad is the odd man out!)

   Actions Becky Hecky said on June 25th, 2010 at 1:01 PM:

that’s definitely beneficial for you and AT&T (provided the new buyer joins AT&T).

Oh, he will. Family plan and all. Not many 16 year olds are going to risk jailbreaking a new phone when mom is paying the AT&T bill!

This just in: 100% of iPhone users have sub-60 IQs.

   Actions Lee Dronick said on June 25th, 2010 at 2:05 PM (Edited: 10/18/2011 6:20 PM):

Not many 16 year olds are going to risk jailbreaking a new phone when mom is paying the AT&T bill!

No, but they will comment on the story.

   Actions davebarnes said on June 25th, 2010 at 2:50 PM (Edited: 06/27/2010 8:11 PM):

@Tiger,

And, what do you think your old iPhone 3G is worth?
I am asking because my wife just got a new iPhone 4 and gave our daughter her old 3G. Swap SIM cards and daughter has better phone.

So, today, at lunch my wife says: “Why don’t you buy a used 3G and replace your Samsung POS? You just have to swap SIM cards and you don’t need an AT&T data plan as you can use WiFi.”

I said great until I saw that people want $250+ for old iPhones. My reaction is WTF! I think a 3G should be worth about $50 USD. I am confused by the high prices. How are they justified?

Oh, he will. Family plan and all. Not many 16 year olds are going to risk jailbreaking a new phone when mom is paying the AT&T bill!

You don’t know 16 year olds. Back at my high school (and this was 2 years ago) I did an informal survey and found that about 75% of the students jailbroke their iDevices. I think a big motivating factor was that many 16 year olds don’t have creditcards and can’t buy apps the legit way. And 16 year olds hate being told what they can’t do, even if it’s by Steve Jobs wink.

You just have to swap SIM cards and you don’t need an AT&T data plan as you can use WiFi.

NOT TRUE, BEWARE. I had a used iPhone 3G on at$t without a contract for about a year and a half using WiFi, but starting last month they changed their policies and as soon as they catch you they add the $30 a year plan WITHOUT EVEN ASKING YOU. So BE VERY VERY VERY CAREFUL, and learn from my unfortunate experience.

I am confused by the high prices. How are they justified?

Think about how much the iPhone 3G costs off-contract. $599 for the cheap one. Now used, they cost about $150. That is significantly less value.

Post A Comment or Log-in. Need an account? Register here.
 

Recent Headlines - Updated May 26th

Sat, 10:00 AM
MacOS KenDensed - MacOS KenDensed: Apple’s Patent Lawsuit & Antitrust Shuffle
Fri, 5:58 PM
News - Sotheby’s to Auction Steve Jobs Atari Memo (Photo Gallery)
5:42 PM
Free on iTunes - 3 Free iOS Apps for News Hounds
3:00 PM
Rumor - Nest Thermostat Reportedly Coming to Apple Retail Stores
2:40 PM
Particle Debris - The TV Industry’s Dreadful Little Secret
2:33 PM
News - Mobile Devices Account for 20% of Web Traffic in US, Canada
12:49 PM
News - Apple Now Offering “Free App of the Week” for iOS
12:21 PM
News - Tim Cook Declines $75 Million Dividend Payout
11:25 AM
News - Absinthe 2.0 Provides Untethered Jailbreak for iOS 5.1.1
11:09 AM
Quick Look Review - F18 Carrier Landing (iOS) is a Boatload of Fun
10:51 AM
TMO Appearances - Jeff Gamet talks Cool Apps & Accessories on Not Another Mac Podcast
10:12 AM
Hot Forum Topic - Forum Poll: Which is Your Favorite Photo Sharing Service?
 

The Mac Observer Reader Specials

  • Macsales for the Right Mac Memory. Easy to Use Online Guide for no Guesswork! Mac Pro up to 128GB, iMac up to 32GB. MacBook/MB Pro, & Mac mini up to 16GB. - Macsales.com
  • Mac RAM Upgrades: MacBook Pro 16GB kits $475, 8GB Kits for $119.99! iMac 16GB RAM Kits (4x 4GB) for $229.99! Mac Pro Memory 32GB Kit for $399.99, 64GB Kit for $889.99! Mac Hard Drives 2TB Seagate SATA II for $249.99! Click Here!
  • Macpokeronline.com If you're using a Mac, then you've gotta check out PokerOnAMac.com. Online casinos and poker rooms are literally giving away cash and the casino sites at Poker on a Mac do the unthinkable, they actually reward! Join today, the download is free!
  •  Looking to find online casinos for mac? We can help you find the best real money casino sites where you can play your favorite casino games including blackjack and slots.

Apple Stock Quote (AAPL)

Loading...

Hot Topics

TMO Express

Join the TMO Express Daily Newsletter to get the latest Mac headlines in your e-mail every weekday. Find out more!

Top Deals From DealBrothers.com

Recent Features

Support The Mac Observer

We noticed you may be running AdBlock on your computer. It takes real money to run this site and to deliver the news, tips, and opinions you love to read.

If you wish to block the ads that pay for the creation of our content, we ask that you instead support TMO Directly, either with a $5 monthly recurring contribution, or a one-time donation of any amount of your choice. Thanks!

Subscribe with Paypal Donate with Paypal