The Mac Observer Forums

Elliott Wave Analysis

2008-12-02T12:08:28Z

Short-term EW for AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$16.42.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret, completed?
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $91.90. Length=$5.40.
(iii).[2]=$91.90 to ... 61.8% ret is $88.56.
(iii).[3] now?

Consolidated past observations for easy reference:
C=Bearish impulse from $192.24 to $79.14. Fifth wave of C=$112.19 to $79.14.
If fifth wave of C is an ending diagonal, AAPL would be rejected at $95, $105 or $112 and establishes a new low of $66. Chart.
If it is not an ending diagonal, the relevant resistances based on fib ratios of $202.96 to $79.14 are: $126, $141 and $155. Chart.
Likely scenario is wave X peaking between $160 to $200. Miracle (for those believing in Neo) is beginning of Cycle V.

Is 81.45 of VIX a truncated wave 5 and is in a multi-month downtrend?

AAPL Intraday Updates

2009-11-15T18:17:16Z

Let’s go!

Dell’s Demise

2009-11-19T23:45:58Z

I’ve posted my thoughts here.

Read the results here.

I’ve said too many times over the past few years Dell is fading into oblivion.

AAPL News Updates

2009-11-08T14:10:46Z

Time for a new updates topic for November and December.

Celebrity Bulls and Bears

2009-11-20T02:19:07Z

Bulls: Louis Navieller, Ken Fisher, ...

Bears: John Hussman, Bob Prechter, Glenn Neely, Meredith Whitney, Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, ...

Around Jun-Jul, bears forecasted that market had peaked and would fall by 50% by year end. After consolidating for about a month, market resumed rallying and had broken above 1100 briefly. These bears had since readjusted their targets and insisted that they are right. Most bears think 1100 is the peak and the second dip has started. Could they be correct this time?

Btw, S&P has yet to recover 61.8% (about 1230) of its decline from 07’s peak. Hence, from the EW perspective, S&P could be in a B-wave (up), that would be followed by a C-wave (down). Breaking above 1230 would mean ABC could be 123 of an impulse.

Edit: Added David Rosenberg. There are more bears than bulls. Contrarians would be bullish.

iPhone & iPod touch: An Accidental Gaming Success?

2009-11-08T12:42:52Z

Doom game creator suggests Apple embarrassed about iPhone gaming

By Brian Garner

John Carmack, creator of the classic PC game Doom, described working with Apple as a “rollercoaster ride,” and suggested that company executives are not happy about the popularity of gaming on the iPhone and iPod touch.

In an interview with gaming website Kotaku, John Carmack revealed that top executives at Apple do not look fondly on the growing popularity of games on the iPod Touch and iPhone.

“At the highest level of Apple, in their heart of hearts,” Carmack reportedly said, “they’re not proud of the iPhone being a game machine, they wish it was something else.”

Despite this sentiment, the iPod Touch has seen an increased push as a gaming machine by Apple advertising, calling the Touch “the funnest iPod ever.” Apple has gone so far as to directly compare the iPhone/Touch platform to the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP hand held gaming systems, touting that the App store contained 21,179 gaming and entertainment titles versus 3,680 for the DS and 607 for the PSP.

Carmack believes the executives at Apple have had to embrace the iPhone/Touch as a gaming platform as a result of the overwhelming popularity that games have enjoyed at the App store. Apple executive John Geleynse was quoted earlier this year as saying “it’s not a phone, it’s a console experience.”

AppleInsider recently reported that Japanese game maker Nintendo had seen profits nearly cut in half compared to last year, which many attribute to increased competition from the iPhone and iPod touch.

The iPhone/Touch has a distinct distribution advantage over the DS, which relies almost entirely on physical copies of games versus the App Store’s entirely digital method of distribution. Furthermore, the average App Store game is in the $5 to $10 dollar range while the average DS game hovers closer to $30.

With more and more established console game companies such as Electronic Arts, id Software, and Konami making serous forays into App store gaming, it seems like the iPhone/Touch will continue to be major players in the world of handheld gaming, whether Apple likes it or not.

FOSSIL starting to ‘‘get it’’

2009-11-18T08:55:49Z

Coming early next year the ‘‘iTablet’’ from Apple and Rupert will be praising
Steve Jobs

http://seekingalpha.com/article/173978-murdoch-without-etablets-newspapers-will-go-out-of-business?source=email

Not mentioned is the richer experience newspaper, magazine and book publishing will offer including imbedded video

08:06 AAPL Apple: Steve Jobs to keynote CES? - LoopRumors (207.00 ) -Update-

LoopRumors reports it has heard whispers that Apple CEO Steve Jobs may be keynoting CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in January 2010. Apple pulled out of Macworld after last year’s January show in San Francisco. If true, this could be a launching pad for the much rumored Apple Tablet computer. There is much speculation that the device would be the “everything killer,” capable of being a computer, e-reader, videoconferencing machine, video player, gamer, and the list goes on. CES, which runs from January 7-10 in Las Vegas, would be appeal to a much wider audience than Macworld.

Investor Emotions

2009-11-19T21:23:29Z

A year ago I read a book on behavioral finance and today picked it up again to read through the highlights. It’s a fascinating subject that can make any trader a better trader if they can learn about themselves and their ability to be more mechanical, less emotional with trading. I figured I would post a thread and see if anyone wanted to share any thoughts on the subject. Perfect example would be today. The last two days the markets put in some pretty bullish action, each day moving down and then rallying at the high of day and in fact yesterday was a new high. Then you get a big down day today with a little recovery into the close and the fear begins to set in. One highlight in the book is the reality that a loss is 2.5 times more difficult emotionally than is the joy of winning. Perhaps that is why down days seem to garner a lot more emotion than up days.

As traders and investors we need to understand if this fear is our own emotion guiding us or if it’s based on something more fundamental.

Anyway, hoping we can get a little discussion started here.

Thanks in advance for sharing your experience, what you’ve learned about your own investing and emotions, etc.

Tony

Hey Michael Dell .....

2009-11-19T18:19:59Z

“What would I do?” Mr. Dell said to an audience of several thousand information technology managers. “I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.”

You might want to take your own advice ..... Payback is a bitch !

Complaints about Mac DVI Capability

2009-11-16T12:18:46Z

But I wanna tablet.

And a more capable Mac Pro that runs stone quiet.

And Apple to ship video cards with dual DVI monitor support or better.

And Apple to ship stand alone LED backlight 30” displays with a standard four point mount on the back and a height adjustable stand.