Evercore ISI’s survey of nearly 4,000 US consumers found that 53% of people planning to buy an iPhone intend to get an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max, and 14% intend to buy iPhone Duo. Analyst Amit Daryanani used the results in a September 18 note to clients to raise Evercore’s Apple price target to $380 from $365, keeping an Outperform rating.
These are stated buying intentions, not sales. Apple has not published sales figures for the iPhone 18 Pro, which reached customers on September 18.
What the survey found
The Pro result sits two points above the 51% average from Evercore’s earlier surveys, and the bigger phone is pulling harder: 32% of respondents expect to buy the Pro Max, up from 29% last year. Two-thirds of would-be buyers, 67%, now say they are upgrading because their phone is getting old, against 48% a year ago.
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| Survey question | 2026 result | Comparison given |
|---|---|---|
| Plan to buy iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max | 53% | 51% average |
| Plan to buy the Pro Max | 32% | 29% last year |
| Plan to buy iPhone Duo | 14% | 9% for iPhone Air last year |
| Upgrading because the current iPhone is old | 67% | 48% last year |
| Plan to buy an Apple Watch | 38% | 34% last year |
| Plan to buy AirPods | 43% | 40% last year |
Evercore said it expects Duo interest to rise as the foldable’s mid-October launch gets closer. Pre-orders open October 16, and the Duo ships October 23 at $1,999.
The Duo number is the first buyer-intent figure for Apple’s foldable. Set against last year’s 9% for iPhone Air, it suggests Apple’s $1,999 foldable is drawing more early interest than last year’s new model did. Supply is a separate question: analysts have already published different shipment forecasts for the Duo.
Why Evercore expects higher prices
Evercore’s bigger argument is about how much each buyer spends. The firm said pricing could rise more than 20%, driven by higher list prices, pricier models and buyers moving to larger storage configurations.
Both iPhone 18 Pro models cost $100 more than the iPhone 17 Pro models they replace. With 2TB Pro and Duo models now on sale, Evercore puts the possible rise in average selling price at about 28%, and it sees upside to fiscal 2027 revenue against the roughly 7% growth Wall Street currently expects. For buyers, the finding is simpler: more people say they want the Pro Max and more storage. During pre-orders, Apple’s store showed October delivery for many models.
Other analysts read lead times differently
Evercore’s survey measures intent. Other firms have tracked delivery estimates on Apple’s store instead, and they do not agree on what those show.
- JPMorgan found first-week global lead times of 7 days for iPhone 18 Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max, against 15 and 24 days for the iPhone 17 Pro models, in a September 14 note. It said the shortfall was “more notable in the Pro SKU rather than the Pro Max,” warned that “supply allocations across the Pro Max and Pro SKU can be different from prior years,” and linked the shorter waits partly to buyers holding out for the Duo.
- UBS tracked availability in more than 30 regions and, on September 18, put average waits at about 23 days for the Pro Max and 16 days for the Pro, each around two days shorter than last year. It blamed softer early demand on solid iPhone 17 demand over the past year, “incremental changes” to the Pro models and higher prices, kept a Neutral rating with a $296 target, and noted that China’s figures “could be affected by consumers waiting for the launch of the Duo.”
- Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring took the calmer view on CNBC on September 18, saying early demand seems fine, supply is better and lead times are flat.
- Jeff Pu called pre-order wait times “lukewarm” on September 15. He found most iPhone 18 Pro configurations available for immediate delivery, with the Pro Max topping out at three to four weeks.
Lead times depend on how many phones Apple builds as much as on how many people order, which is why the same store data can support both readings. The Duo complicates it further: two of these firms say some buyers are skipping the Pro to wait for it. The notes themselves are not public, so these figures come from published reports of them.
What it means if you are still deciding
If you want an iPhone 18 Pro, Apple’s store remains the best guide to how long you will wait for a given model, color and storage size. If the Duo is on your list, Evercore expects interest in it to grow before launch, and buyers weighing the cost can also look at Apple Upgrade’s monthly payments.
