Apple is keeping iPhone Air production steady, according to a new report from TD Cowen. The firm told investors that Apple has not reduced production plans for 2025. Supply chain checks show no major changes in iPhone Air builds this month.
TD Cowen estimates 3 million iPhone Air units for the third quarter of 2025 and 7 million for the fourth. For all iPhone 17 models, production remains at 54 million in the September quarter and 79 million in the December quarter. The firm’s field research shows no slowdown in factory activity related to the iPhone Air.
Other reports say the opposite
Earlier this month, Mizuho Securities claimed Apple cut iPhone Air production by about 1 million units and increased orders for other iPhone 17 models by 7 million. A few days later, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said the supply chain had already started scaling back iPhone Air output. Nikkei also reported that some suppliers described the model as “almost in end-of-production mode,” saying production in November could drop to 10% of September’s level.
TD Cowen’s latest note disagrees with these claims. The firm says its research shows Apple’s production schedule remains unchanged, even after these reports.
Why supply changes don’t tell the full story
Changes in supply chain activity don’t always mean low demand. Apple’s flexible production system allows it to adjust unit targets quickly when needed. The company often shifts focus between Pro and non-Pro models depending on how buyers respond after launch.
The iPhone Air sits between those two groups, so its production rhythm may not follow the usual trend. Early sales often favor Pro models, while midrange ones gain traction later. TD Cowen says Apple’s stable output suggests confidence that demand will balance out in the coming months.
For now, the data shows that iPhone Air production continues as planned, despite mixed reports from other analysts.
